Poll Guesses (Oct 12), Griz Up One?

[IdaGriz01]

Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Previous Rank]
1 NDSU (6-0) [1]
2 Eastern Wash (6-1) (1-6) [2]
3 Coastal Carolina (7-0) [3]
4 New Hampshire (5-1) [4]
5 Villanova (5-1) [6]
6 Montana (4-2) [7]
7 Jacksonville St (5-1) [8]
8 SE Louisiana (5-2) [9]
9 Montana State (5-2) [11]
10 McNeese State (3-2) [5]
11 Fordham (6-1) [14]
12 Illinois State (5-0) [15]
13 Eastern Ky (6-0) [17]
14 W&M (4-2) [10]
15 Chattanooga (3-3) [13]
16 Southern Ill (5-2) [12]
17 Bethune-Cookman (5-1) [18]
18 SDSU (4-2) [19]
19 Northern Iowa (3-3) [21]
20 Richmond (4-2) [22]
21 Youngstown St (4-2) [15]
22 Indiana State (4-2) [20]
23 Delaware (4-2) [NR]
24 Char Southern (5-1) [24]
25 Sam Houston St (3-3) [NR]

NR Tennessee St (4-3) [25]
NR SE Missouri St (4-3) [23]

(This should be very interesting. Commentary in next post.)

 

[IdaGriz01]

With nine losses among the top-25 teams in the TSN poll, there’s bound to be some scrambling in the next rankings. Of course, four losses were “guaranteed” since they were ranked-vs-ranked matchups … but a loss is a loss. Two of the other losses were to FBS opponents, so that skews things a bit.

Although #25 Tennessee State lost by only a TD to a top-10 team, I still think they will drop out of the top-25. As has been proven many times, the conditions have to be pretty “special” when a team in the 20-25 part of the poll loses. Of course, #23 SE Missouri State managed to lose to an weak, unranked opponent (Murray State, 1-4 going into the game), so they’re obviously toast.

I project about a four-spot drop for #10 William & Mary and #15 Southern Illinois because they had fairly substantial losses against their higher-ranked opponent (29 and 28 points, respectively). I don’t think #20 Indiana State will drop quite so much, since they only lost by 2 points.

We do have one of those special cases for a low-ranked team: If one break goes their way, #24 Charleston Southern beats FBS Vanderbilt. Now, Vandy is a pathetic FBS team, but I do not think a 1-point loss to them -- at Vanderbilt -- will hurt Char-South that much. (And, frankly, I would not be surprised if they actually moved up.) Tennessee, while it is no FBS powerhouse, is at least credible. Still, Chattanooga lost rather badly to them, so they may drop more than I have projected.

The other two losses were kinda shockers. #15 Youngstown State lost, at home, to a weak, unranked opponent (W Illinois, 2-4 going in). For that, I expect the pollsters to hammer them down at least six spots, although the fact that they lost by only 6 points may help some. On the other hand, #5 McNeese State lost by 16 (and the game wasn’t that close, really) to an unranked opponent that came into the game with a losing record. The only reason I didn’t pound McNeese even more is because the “conventional wisdom” seems to think SHSU is starting a run (we’ll see).

There's an outside chance, I suppose, that #8 Jacksonville State (5-1) could jump the Griz, but their win wasn't that impressive.

 

[AllWeatherFan]

Surely Montana State will jump to #1. :roll:

 

[IdaGriz01]

Surely Montana State will jump to #1. :roll:

Well, they did score the most points, and have the widest margin of victory.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[2011BisonAlumni]

Nova should be ranked has ahead of New Hampshire.

I also think Illinois State deserves to be ranked in the top 5. They are undefeated, play in the toughest conference in the FCS, have 2 wins over ranked teams, and have been flat out impressive.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Nova should be ranked has ahead of New Hampshire.

I also think Illinois State deserves to be ranked in the top 5. They are undefeated, play in the toughest conference in the FCS, have 2 wins over ranked teams, and have been flat out impressive.

First point: You may think (and I don't necessarily disagree) that Nova is better than UNH. However, the pollsters didn't see it that way last week. Moreover, UNH handily (29 points) beat #10 W&H, while Nova let pathetic Rhode Island (now 0-6) score three TDs on them.

I do agree that that undefeated record for Illinois State looks damned impressive. I might not bump them into the top-5, but they certainly seem to deserve a spot in the top-10. Trouble is, the pollsters hate to admit they could be wrong. I moved them up three because that many "holes" opened up with the losses by W&M, SIU, and Chattanooga. Since most voters don't seem to revamp their work sheet much, I don't see much more upward movement for I-State.

 

[2011BisonAlumni]

Nova should be ranked has ahead of New Hampshire.

I also think Illinois State deserves to be ranked in the top 5. They are undefeated, play in the toughest conference in the FCS, have 2 wins over ranked teams, and have been flat out impressive.

First point: You may think (and I don't necessarily disagree) that Nova is better than UNH. However, the pollsters didn't see it that way last week. Moreover, UNH handily (29 points) beat #10 W&H, while Nova let pathetic Rhode Island (now 0-6) score three TDs on them.

I do agree that that undefeated record for Illinois State looks damned impressive. I might not bump them into the top-5, but they certainly seem to deserve a spot in the top-10. Trouble is, the pollsters hate to admit they could be wrong. I moved them up three because that many "holes" opened up with the losses by W&M, SIU, and Chattanooga. Since most voters don't seem to revamp their work sheet much, I don't see much more upward movement for I-State.

The problem with the FCS pollsters is that many of them have zero clue on what they are voting on. This was evidenced in 2011 and 2012 when voters where voting UND extremely high because they were confused by the Dakota schools.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Nova should be ranked has ahead of New Hampshire.

I also think Illinois State deserves to be ranked in the top 5. They are undefeated, play in the toughest conference in the FCS, have 2 wins over ranked teams, and have been flat out impressive.

First point: You may think (and I don't necessarily disagree) that Nova is better than UNH. However, the pollsters didn't see it that way last week. Moreover, UNH handily (29 points) beat #10 W&H, while Nova let pathetic Rhode Island (now 0-6) score three TDs on them.

I do agree that that undefeated record for Illinois State looks damned impressive. I might not bump them into the top-5, but they certainly seem to deserve a spot in the top-10. Trouble is, the pollsters hate to admit they could be wrong. I moved them up three because that many "holes" opened up with the losses by W&M, SIU, and Chattanooga. Since most voters don't seem to revamp their work sheet much, I don't see much more upward movement for I-State.

The problem with the FCS pollsters is that many of them have zero clue on what they are voting on. This was evidenced in 2011 and 2012 when voters where voting UND extremely high because they were confused by the Dakota schools.

You got that right!
:lol: :lol: :lol: