Poll Guesses (Nov 9), New #1 is UNH?

[IdaGriz01]

Guess, Team (Record) [Previous Rank]
1. UNH (8-1) [2]
2. Coastal Carolina (10-0) [3]
3. Jacksonville St (8-1) [4]
4. EWU (9-2) [5]
5. NDSU (9-1) [1]
6. Villanova (8-2) [7]
7. Fordham (9-1) [9]
8. Illinois State (8-1) [12]
9. Chattanooga (7-3) [13]
10. SE Louisiana (7-3) [14]
11. McNeese State (6-3) [6]
12. MSU (7-3) [15]
13. Youngstown St (7-3) [10]
14. UNI (6-4) [19]
15. Richmond (7-3) [8]
16. Montana (6-4) [11]
17. Harvard (8-0) [18]
18. Bethune-Cookman (8-2) [20]
19. Eastern Ky (8-2) [16]
20. SDSU (6-4) [22]
21. Indiana State (6-4) [17]
22. Bryant (8-1) [23]
23. James Madison (7-3) [NR]
24. W&M (6-4) [24]
25. NAU (7-3) [25]

NR Cal Poly (6-4) [21]

With eight ranked teams losing, half of them in the top ten, there’s bound to be some major changes in the rankings. However, that does not mean a bunch of teams will no longer be ranked ... they will just plummet. One that I do not see dropping all that much is NDSU. Yes, they lost to a much lower-ranked team, but the pollsters love the run that UNI has been on. That, in my view will count heavily in the Bison’s favor. The “formula,” altered by this UNI-fascination, drops NDSU only to #5. That would put them below 2-loss EWU, so it would not surprise me if they ended up at #4, with EWU staying the same at #5.

We’re going to really see some drops below that, with four of the six teams just after EWU losing. I could see McNeese dropping another spot, since they lost to an unranked opponent. However, SF Austin (7-3) has had some impressive wins, so the loss may not hurt them as much (actually, I’m kinda surprised Austin isn’t ranked).

Richmond lost to an unranked team that still has a losing record (4-5) after the win. I project that the Spiders will get hammered, even though they are still 7-3.

I don’t think YSU will go down that much, again because the pollsters really like Illinois State ... so a loss to them does not look so bad.

Because that 6-4 record stands out where I put it, I would not be hugely surprised if the Griz dropped another spot or so. However, EWU is #5 and the TSN write-up gushes about VA’s return to action ... so the pollsters are likely to cut UM some slack for the loss.

Note that I have another 6-4 team even higher. Clearly, UNI is on a run. Despite those four losses, it would not shock me if they moved even higher after the dominating win they had over NDSU.

The other spots follow fairly standard trends, including that Cal Poly is likely to drop out of the top 25. It took beating both Montana schools to get them in, and one loss will probably take them out. (Is that fair? Probably not, but that’s how it’s worked in the past.)

With that spot opened up, some outsider could move in. Last week, JMU was only about 30 points from being ranked #25. Saturday, they beat a mediocre Stony Brook (4-6) team on the road. ISU, of course, beat a stronger (and ranked) Cal Poly (6-4) ... but they were at home and barely squeaked by. Also, the Bengals received only 44 votes in the poll last week. Because of all that, I moved JMU in rather than ISU

 

[grizindabox]

NDSU does not fall past #3

 

[IdaGriz01]

NDSU does not fall past #3

Would not surprise me in the least.

 

[GottaluvGriz]

NDSU does not fall past #3

Would not surprise me in the least.

A one loss NDSU, 3 time champion, probably still deserves the #1 spot over a one loss New Hampshire. Probably won't happen, but they certainly should not fall past 3rd.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Lots of interesting turns in the playoff picture discussed (by Haley) on The Sports Network:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/...network&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4736726

The article is quite long, but here are some bits:

The fact NDSU lost its 10th game - and decisively, too, 23-3 at Northern Iowa on Saturday to end an FCS-record 33-game winning streak - gives voters in The Sports Network FCS Top 25 an interesting dilemma: where to rank the Bison?

Oh, they wouldn't tumble far. No. 2? No. 3? No. 4?

The question is, should they even tumble from No. 1?

New Hampshire (8-1) was No. 2, Coastal Carolina (10-0) No. 3 and Jacksonville State (8-1) No. 4 last week. UNH and Jacksonville State both lost decisively to FBS opponents to open their seasons and haven't lost since, while Coastal hasn't lost, but against a schedule that hasn't been as tough as NDSU's. Oh, it's close among the top teams.
...
Sure, the playoffs are going to sort it all out. Maybe the NDSU mystique is gone after Saturday's loss and the Bison will be bumped off the Road to Frisco.

But how much will the NCAA playoff selection committee ask, "What have you done for me lately?" If all the top teams win out to close the regular season, would the committee give NDSU the No. 1 overall seed if the Bison aren't top-ranked?

That's a good question. The Bison's final game against Youngstown State, in Fargo, could be pressure-packed.

At 6-4, Montana has lost to quality opposition - Wyoming, North Dakota State, Cal Poly and now Eastern Washington. But you have to figure the Grizzlies need to beat both Southern Utah on the road and Montana State at home to qualify for the playoffs. On a one-year contract, 71-year-old coach Mick Delaney's future as head coach is an issue again. He's 23-12 in three seasons, losing his only playoff game.

Pretty much agrees with most reasonable people out here.

Stock Falling - Chattanooga beating Wofford basically solidified what was already expected - that the once-great Southern Conference will have only one playoff team this season. Well, Samford (6-3) could still make the field. If, that is, it beats both The Citadel and ... wait for it ... Auburn.

Yep. Without App State and Ga Southern, the SoCon is just not a powerhouse conference any more.

 

[ranco]

Nice work Ida. your projections were pretty accurate.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Nice work Ida. your projections were pretty accurate.

Thank you. While you were entering your post, I was writing up the following (just had to gloat a bit.)

Damn, I’m good. Not perfect by any means, but pretty good.

My guesses hit 12 on the nose (including the Griz at #16), and only missed by more than two spots for 2 out of the 25.

Even my misses were not that bad: I said I would be not be surprised if NDSU ended up at #4 ... which they did. I also said McNeese might drop even more than I projected ... which they did, to #13 where I guessed #11. The pollsters did hammer Richmond, as I predicted, although only down to #14 where I predicted #15.

I knew Youngstown would go down, but have to admit the pollsters hit them somewhat harder than I expected. I said YSU would drop to #13 and the voters hammered them down to #15.

One of my bigger misses was UNI, although I did say they might go “even higher” ... which they did, to #11 where I predicted #14 (and you hardly ever see an eight-spot jump!).

As predicted, Cal Poly dropped out of the top-25 ... and got hurt bad with only 142 votes among the “Others.” And, also as I guessed, JMU moved into the top-25, rather than ISU. The only good news for the Bengals is that they are now second among the “Others Receiving Votes.”

(Actually, it's kinda scary that my brain is warped in such a way as to track how the poll voters minds' work. :? )