IdaGriz01
Well-known member
The playoff picture has cleared up a bit, but there are some big matchups still to come. Since none of us really know, I shall continue to call them “guesses” rather than predictions. I think it’s best to go by conferences. That, at least, makes it easier to identify the auto-qualifiers. FWIW, my first cut at the “best guesses” -- even trying to squeeze the field -- left me with 22 [locks]+[probable]. There were just too many probable 8-3 teams, several of whom had a loss to a strong FBS opponent. To get down to 20, I had to bump a couple that I felt should get in, but there just weren’t enough spots. It’s what is called (in game theory) a “zero-sum game,” folks -- if you want to add your favorite candidate, you have to decide which team you want to bump. (Keeping in mind that you can’t eliminate auto-bid teams, no matter how pitiful they are.)
Records (W-L) show overall, then conference, when it looks like it might matter. Note the running totals: [locks]+ <probable> = total.
Big Sky (auto-bid TBD)
Eastern Washington (8-2): Even a (highly unlikely) loss to PSU should not keep them out.
Montana State (9-1): A lock, even after the Griz add a second loss to their resume.
Northern Arizona (8-2): A loss to Cal Poly could be bad – three losses plus a two-game losing streak at home would hurt them (badly) compared to other three-loss teams.
Cal Poly (8-2): A road loss at NAU would throw CP into “pot” with a bunch of other 8-3 teams ... several of whom lost to ranked FBS opponents. (CP early win over Wyoming is pretty well worthless at this point.)
Since NAU or CP is bound to have 3 losses at the end, I can see one of them being left out in the final tally, if available bids get tight.
Best guess: EWU, MSU, NAU
[2]+< 1 > = 3
Big South (auto-bid TBD)
Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1), probably. Stony Brook is done with the regular season (5-1 in conference). If Coastal Carolina wins its final game (at home against 5-5 Charleston Southern), it will go 5-1 in conference and win the Big South auto-bid by virtue of the tie-breaker over Liberty, and Liberty’s tie breaker over Stony Brook. If CC loses and Liberty wins (likely, since they play pathetic 2-8 VMI), then Liberty gets the auto-bid. IMO, the only way Stony Brook gets into the playoffs is if both CC and Liberty lose their final games. The RPI of the Big South Conference is #10 (out of 13) in the FCS and I do not see them getting an at-large bid.
Best guess: Coastal Carolina.
Grand total: [3]+< 1 > = 4
Colonial (auto-bid TBD)
Old Dominion (9-1): A lock, even if they lose their final game against JMU. ODU is about to transition to FBS, and therefore not eligible for the CAA championship or its automatic bid. It is, however, eligible for an at-large bid.
New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1): They get Towson (6-4, 5-2) at home for their final game. A win gives them the sole championship and auto-bid. A loss makes the auto-bid a complete mess, but even a 3-loss UNH team should get in.
James Madison (7-3, 5-2): A loss at ODU in their final game, after just losing to Villanova, could knock them out of the playoffs. A win would tie them at 8-3 with (probably) Villanova (7-3, 5-2) and Richmond (7-3, 5-2) The conference will probably end up with several 8-3 teams. Because the conference is perceived as “down” this year, I’m bettingonly one will get an auto-bid.
Best guess: ODU, UNH, JMU for [2]+< 1 >
Grand total: [5]+< 2 > = 7
Mid-Eastern
Bethune-Cookman (8-2): Champion and auto-bid
Grand total: [6]+< 2 > = 8
Missouri Valley (auto-bid TBD)
North Dakota State (9-1): A lock, even if they lose at Illinois State.
Illinois State (8-2, 5-2): If they beat NDSU they win the conference and auto-bid with a 6-2 conference record and the head-to-head. A loss (more likely) puts them at 8-3, with lots of competition for an at-large bid.
South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2): Almost guaranteed to win their final game against USD (1-9) and end up with an 8-3 record. They played NDSU close, losing only by a FG, and one of their losses was to FBS Kansas.
Indiana State (7-3, 5-2): Has a tough game left at Youngstown State. They lost to SDSU by 2 TDs.
Best guess: NDSU, Illinois St, SDSU for [1]+ < 2 >
Grand total: [7]+ <4 > = 11
Northeast (auto-bid TBD)
Wagner (7-3, 6-1): Should beat Duquesne (5-5) at home. Albany (8-2, 6-1) should also win easily against Central Conn State (2-7), but Wagner has the head-to-head over them. Only a loss by Wagner and an Albany win would give Albany the title.
Best guess: Wagner.
Grand total: [8]+ < 4 > = 12
Ohio Valley
Eastern Illinois (7-3): Champion with auto-bid.
Tennessee State (8-2) has one game left, at Tenn-Martin (7-3), and could end up with a 10-2 record. However, with a low RPI and SOS, even a win might not be enough.
Best Guess: Eastern Illinois.
Grand total: [9]+ < 4 > = 13
Patriot
Colgate (7-3): Champion with auto-bid.
Lehigh (9-1) must still play at Lafayette (5-5), where they should win. With 10 wins, they should get an at-large bid, even though the league has a rather weak RPI (#6 out of 13).
Best guess: Colgate, Lehigh for [1]+ < 1>
Grand total: [10]+ <5 > = 15
Southern (auto-bid TBD)
Appalachian State (8-3): One of those three losses was to an FBS opponent.
Georgia Southern (8-2): GSU ends with a ranked FBS opponent (Georgia).
Wofford (8-2): They also end with a ranked FBS opponent (South Carolina).
With one FBS loss (at the end) each, all three teams enjoy an advantage over other 8-3 teams.
Best guess: ASU, GSU, Wofford for [3]
Grand total: [13]+ < 5 > = 18
Southland
Central Arkansas (8-2): Champion with auto-bid.
Sam Houston State (8-2): One more game against a ranked FBS opponent (Texas A&M).
Best guess: Central Arkansas, SHSU for [2]
Grand total: [15]+ < 5 > = 20
Gonna be some pretty good teams, with respectable records, on the outside looking in (as usual).
Records (W-L) show overall, then conference, when it looks like it might matter. Note the running totals: [locks]+ <probable> = total.
Big Sky (auto-bid TBD)
Eastern Washington (8-2): Even a (highly unlikely) loss to PSU should not keep them out.
Montana State (9-1): A lock, even after the Griz add a second loss to their resume.
Northern Arizona (8-2): A loss to Cal Poly could be bad – three losses plus a two-game losing streak at home would hurt them (badly) compared to other three-loss teams.
Cal Poly (8-2): A road loss at NAU would throw CP into “pot” with a bunch of other 8-3 teams ... several of whom lost to ranked FBS opponents. (CP early win over Wyoming is pretty well worthless at this point.)
Since NAU or CP is bound to have 3 losses at the end, I can see one of them being left out in the final tally, if available bids get tight.
Best guess: EWU, MSU, NAU
[2]+< 1 > = 3
Big South (auto-bid TBD)
Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1), probably. Stony Brook is done with the regular season (5-1 in conference). If Coastal Carolina wins its final game (at home against 5-5 Charleston Southern), it will go 5-1 in conference and win the Big South auto-bid by virtue of the tie-breaker over Liberty, and Liberty’s tie breaker over Stony Brook. If CC loses and Liberty wins (likely, since they play pathetic 2-8 VMI), then Liberty gets the auto-bid. IMO, the only way Stony Brook gets into the playoffs is if both CC and Liberty lose their final games. The RPI of the Big South Conference is #10 (out of 13) in the FCS and I do not see them getting an at-large bid.
Best guess: Coastal Carolina.
Grand total: [3]+< 1 > = 4
Colonial (auto-bid TBD)
Old Dominion (9-1): A lock, even if they lose their final game against JMU. ODU is about to transition to FBS, and therefore not eligible for the CAA championship or its automatic bid. It is, however, eligible for an at-large bid.
New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1): They get Towson (6-4, 5-2) at home for their final game. A win gives them the sole championship and auto-bid. A loss makes the auto-bid a complete mess, but even a 3-loss UNH team should get in.
James Madison (7-3, 5-2): A loss at ODU in their final game, after just losing to Villanova, could knock them out of the playoffs. A win would tie them at 8-3 with (probably) Villanova (7-3, 5-2) and Richmond (7-3, 5-2) The conference will probably end up with several 8-3 teams. Because the conference is perceived as “down” this year, I’m bettingonly one will get an auto-bid.
Best guess: ODU, UNH, JMU for [2]+< 1 >
Grand total: [5]+< 2 > = 7
Mid-Eastern
Bethune-Cookman (8-2): Champion and auto-bid
Grand total: [6]+< 2 > = 8
Missouri Valley (auto-bid TBD)
North Dakota State (9-1): A lock, even if they lose at Illinois State.
Illinois State (8-2, 5-2): If they beat NDSU they win the conference and auto-bid with a 6-2 conference record and the head-to-head. A loss (more likely) puts them at 8-3, with lots of competition for an at-large bid.
South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2): Almost guaranteed to win their final game against USD (1-9) and end up with an 8-3 record. They played NDSU close, losing only by a FG, and one of their losses was to FBS Kansas.
Indiana State (7-3, 5-2): Has a tough game left at Youngstown State. They lost to SDSU by 2 TDs.
Best guess: NDSU, Illinois St, SDSU for [1]+ < 2 >
Grand total: [7]+ <4 > = 11
Northeast (auto-bid TBD)
Wagner (7-3, 6-1): Should beat Duquesne (5-5) at home. Albany (8-2, 6-1) should also win easily against Central Conn State (2-7), but Wagner has the head-to-head over them. Only a loss by Wagner and an Albany win would give Albany the title.
Best guess: Wagner.
Grand total: [8]+ < 4 > = 12
Ohio Valley
Eastern Illinois (7-3): Champion with auto-bid.
Tennessee State (8-2) has one game left, at Tenn-Martin (7-3), and could end up with a 10-2 record. However, with a low RPI and SOS, even a win might not be enough.
Best Guess: Eastern Illinois.
Grand total: [9]+ < 4 > = 13
Patriot
Colgate (7-3): Champion with auto-bid.
Lehigh (9-1) must still play at Lafayette (5-5), where they should win. With 10 wins, they should get an at-large bid, even though the league has a rather weak RPI (#6 out of 13).
Best guess: Colgate, Lehigh for [1]+ < 1>
Grand total: [10]+ <5 > = 15
Southern (auto-bid TBD)
Appalachian State (8-3): One of those three losses was to an FBS opponent.
Georgia Southern (8-2): GSU ends with a ranked FBS opponent (Georgia).
Wofford (8-2): They also end with a ranked FBS opponent (South Carolina).
With one FBS loss (at the end) each, all three teams enjoy an advantage over other 8-3 teams.
Best guess: ASU, GSU, Wofford for [3]
Grand total: [13]+ < 5 > = 18
Southland
Central Arkansas (8-2): Champion with auto-bid.
Sam Houston State (8-2): One more game against a ranked FBS opponent (Texas A&M).
Best guess: Central Arkansas, SHSU for [2]
Grand total: [15]+ < 5 > = 20
Gonna be some pretty good teams, with respectable records, on the outside looking in (as usual).
