Playoff Scenarios

[behappp]

We have none. Brawl of the wild then done. Hopefully we show in this game. Play lights out, and atleast end the season on a high note. I feel bad for this team. We have tons of talent. We are getting out coached. I know our formations have a lot of options but it seems like any team with a average or better defense shuts us out on the score board, even though our stats look great.

The Scats always win the recruiting war and we always win the stat sheet.
Unfortunately we score fewer points than our opponents on the road

 

[Griz2k]

Griz beat the cats and they'll get in. Do they deserve it? Well, that's the question of the day.

 

[UTGrizFan]

I think we get in at 7-4 but as mentioned I think a lot of it will be based more on the first round venue we can provide then the way we have been playing as of late.

 

[nzone]

I think we have to pound the cats. Not just to get in but get any resemblance of confidence and momentum. Even then I'm not sure its enough.

 

[zengriz]

...this is one time...
...you can all be happy...
...the ncaa is all about money...

... ...

 

[Spanky]

Do you really think this team has earned a spot in the play-offs?

 

[Umista]

NO

NO

NO

 

[first11]

So.....we slip in and get a chance to play another bottom feeder to become cannon fodder for a seeded team

Just beat cats and call it done!!

 

[Sam A. Blitz]

So.....we slip in and get a chance to play another bottom feeder to become cannon fodder for a seeded team

Just beat cats and call it done!!

Damn, I hope you never played for the Griz. The defeated attitude around here is something that I hope the players aren't exhibiting.

The team has the talent to beat anyone in the FCS, it is just a matter of getting it together. I don't see a deep playoff run as we are too inconsistent on the road, but if we could get a first round win and then pull off a second round upset, that would be good for morale and something to build off going into the off season.

Chances of getting to the playoffs is basically nill though...

 

[Griz!ron]

So.....we slip in and get a chance to play another bottom feeder to become cannon fodder for a seeded team

Just beat cats and call it done!!

Dark horse, it is called being a dark horse. We can put up points in bunches, we'll worry the other team about what might happen. But we aren't the juggernought we expect to be.

 

[Griz!ron]

https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/5csrk6/fcs_playoff_picture_1_more_week/

Building on last week's post and we're almost there! First, here are my assumptions for each conference that sends a champion to the playoff based on history and strength this year. Each column shows the number of losses a team can have in each conference and: a) get a seed if they win their conference, b) get a seed if they don't win their conference, c) pretty much guarantee a playoff bid, d) possibly get a playoff bid.
Conf Champ Seed Other Seed Playoff Bubble
Missouri Valley 3 2 4 5
Southern 2 1 3 4
Big Sky 2 1 3 4
CAA 2 1 3 4
Big South 1 1 3 4
Ohio Valley 1 1 2 3
Southland 1 1 2 3
Patriot 0 0 2 2
NEC 0 0 0 1
Pioneer 0 0 0 1
The Ivy doesn't participate, and it's looking exceedingly unlikely that a MEAC or SWAC non-champion could get an at large bid, although North Carolina A&T could come close if they go 9-2 with a loss to NC Central. Grambling and Southern are both ineligible regardless of who wins the SWAC West because they play in the Thanksgiving Bayou Classic.
So let's see who is left! We've got:
Missouri Valley

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
North Dakota State 9-1 6-1 Possible South Dakota Clinched Clinched Clinched
South Dakota State 7-3 6-1 Destiny Northern Iowa 0 Clinched Clinched
Youngstown State 7-3 5-2 No Missouri State Out Clinched Clinched
Western Illinois 6-4 3-4 No Southern Illinois Out 0 Clinched
Illinois State 6-5 3-4 No Out Out Clinched
Northern Iowa 5-5 4-3 No South Dakota State Out Out 0
Southern

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
The Citadel 10-0 8-0 Yes North Carolina Clinched Clinched Clinched
Chattanooga 8-2 6-2 No Alabama Out Clinched Clinched
Samford 7-3 5-2 No East Tennessee State Out 0 Clinched
Wofford 7-3 5-2 No VMI Out 0 Clinched
Big Sky

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Eastern Washington 9-1 7-0 Destiny Portland State 0 Clinched Clinched
North Dakota 9-2 8-0 Yes Clinched Clinched Clinched
Weber State 6-4 5-2 No Idaho State Out Out 0
Cal Poly 6-4 4-3 No Northern Colorado Out Out 0
Northern Colorado 6-4 4-3 No Cal Poly Out Out 0
Montana 6-4 3-4 No Montana State Out Out 0
CAA

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
James Madison 9-1 7-0 Yes Elon Clinched Clinched Clinched
Richmond 8-2 5-2 No William & Mary Out Clinched Clinched
Villanova 7-3 5-2 No Delaware Out 0 Clinched
New Hampshire 6-4 5-2 No Maine Out Out 0
Maine 6-4 5-2 No New Hampshire Out Out 0
Albany 6-4 3-4 No Stony Brook Out Out 0
Big South

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Kennesaw State 8-2 3-1 Out Charleston Southern Out Clinched Clinched
Charleston Southern 6-3 3-1 Destiny Kennesaw State Out 0 Clinched
Liberty 6-4 4-1 Possible Coastal Carolina Out Out 0
Ohio Valley

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Jacksonville State 9-1 6-0 Destiny Tennessee-Martin 0 Clinched Clinched
Tennessee-Martin 7-4 6-1 Destiny Jacksonville State Out Out Out
Southland

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Sam Houston State 10-0 8-0 Destiny Central Arkansas Clinched Clinched Clinched
Central Arkansas 9-1 8-0 Destiny Sam Houston State 0 Clinched Clinched
Patriot/NEC/Pioneer

Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Lehigh 8-2 5-0 Patriot Lafayette Out Clinched Clinched
St. Francis 7-3 5-0 NEC Wagner Out Clinched Clinched
San Diego 8-1 7-0 Pioneer Campbell Out Clinched Clinched
32 teams remain out of the 44 last week and 124 total!
Combining this together, I think for the Top 8 Seeds (First Round bye):
North Dakota State, The Citadel, North Dakota, James Madison, Sam Houston State are in.
South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas are in with a win.
If all 4 win, one will obviously be left out. If fewer than 3 win, teams like Richmond, Chattanooga, Youngstown State, and Kennesaw State could be in the mix.
All 13 of the teams mentioned above are locks for the playoff. Lehigh, St. Francis, and San Diego are also locks as they've won their conference. That leaves 8 remaining spots among 16 bubble teams. There's 3 special cases here:
Illinois State has their bye this week and is definitely on the bubble.
Tennessee-Martin is definitely out of contention for an at large spot, but will lock up a conference bid with a win.
Liberty is on the bubble with a win, but could get in with a conference title if Charleston Southern loses even if they lose.
Here are the remaining teams compiled.
Definitely in with a Win, could be on the bubble with a loss

Conf Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Southern Samford 7-3 5-2 No East Tennessee State Out 0 Clinched
Southern Wofford 7-3 5-2 No VMI Out 0 Clinched
CAA Villanova 7-3 5-2 No Delaware Out 0 Clinched
Big South Charleston Southern 6-3 3-1 Destiny Kennesaw State Out 0 Clinched
Missouri Valley Western Illinois 6-4 3-4 No Southern Illinois Out 0 Clinched
In the bubble with a Win, definitely out with a loss

Conf Team Record Conf Champ? Schedule Seed # Playoff # Bubble #
Big Sky Weber State 6-4 5-2 No Idaho State Out Out 0
Big Sky Cal Poly 6-4 4-3 No Northern Colorado Out Out 0
Big Sky Northern Colorado 6-4 4-3 No Cal Poly Out Out 0
Big Sky Montana 6-4 3-4 No Montana State Out Out 0
CAA New Hampshire 6-4 5-2 No Maine Out Out 0
CAA Maine 6-4 5-2 No New Hampshire Out Out 0
CAA Albany 6-4 3-4 No Stony Brook Out Out 0
Missouri Valley Northern Iowa 5-5 4-3 No South Dakota State Out Out 0
If there are no upsets, my guess is that the 8 teams of these that advance are: Samford, Wofford, Villanova, Charleston Southern, Western Illinois, Cal Poly, Montana, and New Hampshire.
Any teams not indicated would be extremely unlikely to make the playoff even if they win next week. There are obvious caveats and exceptions to this, like looking at just D1 teams for teams that scheduled D2 opponents, OOC SoS, Quality of wins, and geographic considerations (which should hopefully be reduced this year), but I think this is a pretty good summary of what could happen.

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

So a simple scenario (EWU & UND Locks):
Weber beats ISU to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
Griz beat Cats to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
UNCo beats Cal Poly (6 d-1 wins for each)
NAU/SUU winner (6 d-1 wins)

Basically if the committee were to take 3 Big Sky teams (how could they not take at least 3...although who knows), we'd have to get in over Weber right? For the simple fact that we beat UNI and they lost to South Dakota? Also, their in conference schedule was a week to week match-up against a bottom feeder.

Obviously the big game is UNCo @ Cal Poly. Poly wins and they are in over us...then we're 4th in line & hope things shake out correctly in the rest of the country.

 

[WILDCATFAN]

So a simple scenario (EWU & UND Locks):
Weber beats ISU to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
Griz beat Cats to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
UNCo beats Cal Poly (6 d-1 wins for each)
NAU/SUU winner (6 d-1 wins)

Basically if the committee were to take 3 Big Sky teams (how could they not take at least 3...although who knows), we'd have to get in over Weber right? For the simple fact that we beat UNI and they lost to South Dakota? Also, their in conference schedule was a week to week match-up against a bottom feeder.

Obviously the big game is UNCo @ Cal Poly. Poly wins and they are in over us...then we're 4th in line & hope things shake out correctly in the rest of the country.

Week to week? I know we played our fair share of pasties (Montana did too) but NAU, Cal Poly and UND are not among them

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Griz chances are slim at best. And by slim I mean almost zero.

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

So a simple scenario (EWU & UND Locks):
Weber beats ISU to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
Griz beat Cats to get to 7-4 (7 d-1 wins)
UNCo beats Cal Poly (6 d-1 wins for each)
NAU/SUU winner (6 d-1 wins)

Basically if the committee were to take 3 Big Sky teams (how could they not take at least 3...although who knows), we'd have to get in over Weber right? For the simple fact that we beat UNI and they lost to South Dakota? Also, their in conference schedule was a week to week match-up against a bottom feeder.

Obviously the big game is UNCo @ Cal Poly. Poly wins and they are in over us...then we're 4th in line & hope things shake out correctly in the rest of the country.

Week to week? I know we played our fair share of pasties (Montana did too) but NAU, Cal Poly and UND are not among them

That's fair...your win over Cal Poly could be the kicker

 

[bigkid]

We need to pound the cats and get people's attention. The question is can we? Find out Saturday and then again Sunday.

Go Griz!