Playoff Hopefuls (Nov. 4)

[DoubleNicks]

Here's the list of playoff hopefuls (according to reaching the 7 D-1 wins mark) fighting for one of the 20 spots (10 AQs and 10 At-Larges)...

***Ivy League and SWAC don't participate and Pioneer is only conference without an auto-bid***

Big Sky Conference
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (8-1, 6-0):
-already has 7 D-I wins (with SUU and CP remaining)
-has FBS win over UNLV 17-14
-OOC: FBS, FBS, D-II
-In driver's seat for the auto-bid

Montana State Bobcats (8-1, 5-1):
-already has 7 D-I wins (PSU and UM remaining)
-OOC: D-II, FCS, FCS

Eastern Washington Eagles (7-2, 5-1):
-already has 7 D-I wins (UC Davis and PSU remaining)
-has FBS win over Idaho 20-3
-all D-I schedule (with 2 FBS)

Cal Poly Mustangs (7-2, 5-1):
-already has 7 D-I wins (ISU and NAU remaining)
-has FBS win over Wyoming 24-22
-all D-I schedule (with 1 FBS)

Sacramento State Hornets (6-4, 4-3):
-needs to beat UC Davis to be considered
-has FBS win over Colorado 30-28
-all D-I schedule (with 2 FBS)

Big South Conference
Stony Brook Seawolves (9-1, 5-0):
-already has 8 D-I wins (Liberty remaining)
-has FBS win over Army 23-3
-OOC: FCS, D-II, FBS, FCS, FBS, FCS
-In driver's seat for the auto-bid

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-4, 3-1):
-needs to win out (Presbyterian, Charleston Southern) to even be considered
-all D-I schedule (with 1 FBS)

Colonial Athletic Association
New Hampshire Wildcats (8-2, 6-1):

Old Dominion Monarchs (8-1, 5-1):

James Madison Dukes (7-2, 5-1):

Richmond Spiders (6-3, 4-2):

Villanova Wildcats (6-3, 4-2):

Towson Tigers (5-4, 4-2):
-needs to win out (Rhode Island and New Hampshire) to even be considered

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (7-2, 6-0):

North Carolina Central Eagles (6-3, 5-1):

Howard Bison (6-3, 5-2):

Delaware State Hornets (5-4, 4-2):

Missouri Valley Football Conference
North Dakota State Bison (8-1, 5-1):

South Dakota State Jackrabbits (7-2, 5-1):

Illinios State Redbirds (8-2, 5-2):

Indiana State Sycamores (7-3, 5-2):

Youngstown State Penguins (5-4, 2-4):

Northeast Conference
Wagner Seahawks (6-3, 6-1):

Albany Great Danes (7-2, 5-1):

Ohio Valley Conference
UT Martin Skyhawks (7-2, 5-1):

Eastern Illinois Panthers (6-3, 5-1):

Eastern Kentucky Colonels (7-3, 5-2):

Tennessee State Tigers (8-2, 4-2):

Patriot League
Lehigh Mountain Hawks (8-0, 2-0):

Colgate Raiders (5-3, 3-0):

Pioneer Football League
Butler Bulldogs (8-2, 7-0):

Southern Conference
Georgia Southern Eagles (7-2, 6-2):

Wofford Terriers (7-2, 5-2):

Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-3, 5-2):

The Citadel Bulldogs (5-4, 4-3):

Southland Conference
Central Arkansas Bears (8-2, 6-1):
-Claimed Southland AQ

Sam Houston State Bearkats (7-2, 5-1):
-6 D-1 wins, needs to win at Northwestern State (or pull off huge upset of Texas A&M)

McNeese State Cowboys (6-3, 3-3):
-5 D-I wins, has to win out

 

[DoubleNicks]

Sorry, getting late so I just started throwing down possible teams w/o checking to make sure they were D-1 wins after CAA...

And there were technically a few more teams from the weaker conferences that are still mathematically eligible but I didn't include.

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

Looks pretty good. Nice summary. :thumb:

Big Sky - I think NAU, EWU, MSU, and CP all get in. Sac State will be left out. There will be other 7-4 teams with better GPIs.

Big South - I believe Stony Brook has essentially clinched the AQ. Even if they lose to Liberty, Coastal Carolina winning out would lead to a three way tie, which Stony Brook has the tie-breaker due to points allowed in conference. So Coastal Carolina has to lose a game, and Liberty has to beat Stony Brook. Coastal Carolina will have a worse GPI than Sacramento State - so they won't get an at-large either.

CAA - Only ODU and UNH sure bets right now. This conference is way down this year in regard to GPI. I really only see one other team out of JMU/Rich/Vill getting in. If Towson wins out, they will be hot and have a good GPI though.

MEAC - Only one team getting in from this conference. 99% chance it is Bethune-Cookman.

MVC - Best conference this year according to GPI. NDSU and Illinois State will get in. Indiana State has a great GPI and should beat YSU to get in. I would expects SDSU to get in as well. YSU ahead of Sacramento State in regard to GPI - and if they beat Ind State that would be interesting.

NEC - Yikes. What a mess. I would expect the Wagner win over Albany to really knock Albany down in the GPI (Wagner was 73, Albany was 28). Hopefully this ends up keeping the NEC a one team league. However, Albany could end up 9-2 with a decent GPI and Wagner getting the AQ.

OVC - Probably the most jumbled conference where the AQ actually will matter. Hopefully UT Martin wins out and makes this somewhat irrelevant. Although you could still have an 8-3 OVC team in the top 20 GPI.

Patriot - Hopefully Lehigh beats Colgate to keep this a one team league. Winner of that game will get the AQ. If Colgate wins, you could have a 10-1 Lehigh team in the top 30 GPI. Tough to see the committee leaving out a 10-1 Lehigh.

Pioneer - No way. Best team from that league is at 56 in the GPI.

Southern - Georgia Southern and Appalachian State are likely in. I would expect Wofford to beat Chattanooga and get in as well. The Citadel would have a pretty low GPI at 7-4 and probably done.

Southland - Central Arkansas in as noted. SHSU in with win over NW State - which I fully expect. McNeese winning out would be interesting. They would likely have a top 20 GPI at 8-3, which probably means they would be in too.

I think you captured all of the teams up for consideration.

 

[tourist]

Since 2000, the BSC has had three teams chosen only twice, 2003 and 2009. Your facts are great, and conclusions logical. If the selection committee met in an open forum, your predictions would probably be right on the money. Every year, there are teams that say the same three words in unison come the selection announcement show: WTF!

"When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened."--John M. Richardson

 

[Cats2506]

Big Sky - I think NAU, EWU, MSU, and CP all get in. Sac State will be left out. There will be other 7-4 teams with better GPIs.

SAC has 2 things though, an all DI schedule which is given preference in the selection committees guide and a "quality" win over FBS Colorado, when it comes down to selecting the bubble teams I think that SAC has at least a 50/50 shot.

All being that they win the UCD game which is not a given.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Big Sky - I think NAU, EWU, MSU, and CP all get in. Sac State will be left out. There will be other 7-4 teams with better GPIs.

SAC has 2 things though, an all DI schedule which is given preference in the selection committees guide and a "quality" win over FBS Colorado, when it comes down to selecting the bubble teams I think that SAC has at least a 50/50 shot.

All being that they win the UCD game which is not a given.

I'd love to see Sac State be another playoff team from the Big Sky. But the win against Colorado has lost "quality" big time: They are now 1-8, with their only win against Washington State, which is 2-7. Yuck!

 

[Cats2506]

Big Sky - I think NAU, EWU, MSU, and CP all get in. Sac State will be left out. There will be other 7-4 teams with better GPIs.

SAC has 2 things though, an all DI schedule which is given preference in the selection committees guide and a "quality" win over FBS Colorado, when it comes down to selecting the bubble teams I think that SAC has at least a 50/50 shot.

All being that they win the UCD game which is not a given.

I'd love to see Sac State be another playoff team from the Big Sky. But the win against Colorado has lost "quality" big time: They are now 1-8, with their only win against Washington State, which is 2-7. Yuck!

Yeah I know Colorado sucks, but any win over a FBS team has to be considered a quality win, it is a road game and they do have 85 scholarships and do play a higher level an all.

 

[RobGriz]

Big Sky - I think NAU, EWU, MSU, and CP all get in. Sac State will be left out. There will be other 7-4 teams with better GPIs.

SAC has 2 things though, an all DI schedule which is given preference in the selection committees guide and a "quality" win over FBS Colorado, when it comes down to selecting the bubble teams I think that SAC has at least a 50/50 shot.

All being that they win the UCD game which is not a given.

I'd love to see Sac State be another playoff team from the Big Sky. But the win against Colorado has lost "quality" big time: They are now 1-8, with their only win against Washington State, which is 2-7. Yuck!

Yeah I know Colorado sucks, but any win over a FBS team has to be considered a quality win, it is a road game and they do have 85 scholarships and do play a higher level an all.

Very true even if it is a bottom feeder FBS team that many FCS teams would own.