Playoff Hopefuls as of 11-15-15

[DoubleNicks]

I'm not including teams that have already reached 5 losses or can't reach 7 DI wins (to help narrow it down) but note that two 5-loss teams made the field last year (in a 12 game year). I'm also just looking at it from an at-large perspective and not getting into specifics of tiebreakers for autobids.

Big Sky
PSU (8-2) 7 DI wins, 2 FBS wins
SUU (7-3) 6 DI wins
NAU (7-3) 6 DI wins
UM (6-4) 6 DI wins
EWU (6-4) 6 DI wins
UND (6-4) 6 DI wins, 1 FBS win
2-5 teams

Big South
Charleston Southern (9-1) 8 DI wins, clinched autobid
Coastal Carolina (9-1) 9 DI wins
2 teams

Colonial Athletic Association
William & Mary (8-2) 8 DI wins
James Madison (8-2) 8 DI wins, 1 FBS win
Richmond (7-3) 7 DI wins
Villanova (6-4) 6 DI wins
Towson (6-4) 6 DI wins
New Hampshire (6-4) 6 DI wins
3-6 teams

Mid-Eastern Athletic
North Carolina A&T (9-1) 8 DI wins
Bethune-Cookman (8-2) 7 DI wins
North Carolina Central (7-3) 6 DI wins
South Carolina State (6-4) 6 DI wins
1 or 2 teams

Missouri Valley
South Dakota State (8-2) 8 DI wins, 1 FBS win
North Dakota State (8-2) 8 DI wins
Illinois State (8-2) 8 DI wins
Northern Iowa (6-4) 6 DI wins
3-4 teams

Northeast
St. Francis (6-3) 6 DI wins
Duquesne (7-3) 5 DI wins, can only get to 6 but could get autobid
1 team

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (9-1) 9 DI wins, clinched autobid
Eastern Kentucky (6-4) 6 DI wins
Eastern Illinois (6-4) 6 DI wins
1 or 2 teams

Patriot League
Colgate (6-4) 6 DI wins, clinched autobid
Fordham (9-2) 9 DI wins, 1 FBS win
1 or 2 teams

Pioneer League
Dayton (10-0) 10 DI wins, clinched autobid
San Diego (8-2) 6 DI wins
Jacksonville (8-2) 6 DI wins
1 team

Southern
Chattanooga (8-2) 7 DI wins, clinched autobid
Citadel (7-3) 7 DI wins
2 teams

Southland
McNeese State (9-0) 8 DI wins, clinched autobid
Central Arkansas (7-3) 7 DI wins
Sam Houston State (7-3) 6 DI wins
2-3 teams

Conservative Total: 19 teams
High Total: 30 teams

 

[Paytonlives]

(10) Auto bids as of 11/15/15
Southern Utah 7-3 (Big Sky)
Charleston Southern 9-1 (Big South)
Richmond 8-2 (CAA)
North Dakota State 8-2 (MVFC)
Duquesne 7-3 (NEC)
Jacksonville St. 9-1 (OVC)
Colgate 6-4 (Patriot)- Beat Fordham
Dayton 9-0 (Pioneer)
Chattanooga 7-2 (Southern)
McNeese St. 9-0 (Southland)

By choice, the Ivy League abstains from the championship tournament.
The SWAC and MEAC both gave up automatic berth chances when they announced participation of the Celebration Bowl

(7) Probably already in...
*Portland State 8-2 (Big Sky)
*Coastal Carolina 9-1 (Big South)
*William & Mary 8-2 (CAA)
*James Madison 8-2 (CAA)
*Fordham 9-2 (Patriot)
*Illinois St. 8-2 (MVFC)
*South Dakota State 8-2 (MVFC)


(12) In contention- 7 Get in
Highlighted lost in week 11 + = in Top 25

+E. Washington 6-4 (Big Sky)
Citadel 7-4 (Southern)
NAU 7-3 (Big Sky)
+Montana 6-4 (Big Sky)
North Dakota 6-4 (Big Sky)
Towson 6-4 (CAA)
Villanova 6-4 (CAA)
+Northern Iowa 6-4 (MVFC)
Tenn.- Martin 6-4 (OVC)
Western Carolina 6-4 (Southern)
+Sam Houston 7-3 (Southland)
Cent. Ark. 7-3 (Southland)

Lost in week 11- OUT
South Dakota 5-5 (MVFC)
+Youngstown 5-5 (MVFC)

 

[zirge]

Highlight The Citadel, they lost to Chatty today.

It is comes down to next week.............NAU vs SUU and the GRIZ
with Villanova squeaking by Richmond still keeps them in the race with James Madison next week....good luck, this could be good for the Griz after a win next week.

 

[Griz!ron]

Conservative Total: 19 teams
High Total: 30 teams

There are a total of 24 teams that make it in the plays, so which 6 teams should we be rooting against?

 

[IdaGriz01]

Highlight The Citadel, they lost to Chatty today.

It is comes down to next week.............NAU vs SUU and the GRIZ
with Villanova squeaking by Richmond still keeps them in the race with James Madison next week....good luck, this could be good for the Griz after a win next week.

SoCon now is settled ... and probably will get just one auto-bid. Chattanooga and Citadel are 6-1 in conference, but (obviously) Chattie has the tie-breaker for the auto-bid. As I mentioned in another thread, both teams play FBS teams next and are likely to lose. The Citadel plays South Carolina and, while SC is not a top FBS, they will most likely win the game -- leaving Citadel at 7-4. I do not see a 7-4 SoCon team getting a bid.

With Richmond losing today, there is a tie at 5-2 for second place among Richmond (7-3 overall), JMU (8-2), and Villanova (6-4). Villanova is at JMU, so they could cause some pain by knocking off the Dukes -- JMU would then be 8-3 and out of the CAA race but probably in with an at-large bid. Along with that, 'Nova would stand at 7-4 and probably be in the at-large mix. Meanwhile, Richmond plays at W&M. W&M will most likely win, giving them the title and auto-bid. But if Richmond pulls off the upset, the CAA could have four teams at 5-2 ... and I refuse to try to figure out how that tie-breaker would work out.

 

[Paytonlives]

I believe these are the key games... obviously UM must win.

Helps the Griz
Sam Houston over Cent Ark.
Both are 7-3 but a highly thought of 7-4 Sam Houston probably gets in.

PSU over EWU
EWU is also highly thought of, but there is no way they get in at 6-5 with 3 straight loses.

James Madison over Vilanova
Nova has had some great games and keep hanging close. Right now they have 6 wins and a win over top 10 JM gets them in.

SUU over NAU
I still think the Griz get the nod over NAU because they beat them. However NAU lately is killing teams and will make it very hard on the committee if they beat SUU.

Poly over N Dakota.
Griz get nod over ND, but would be nice to make it official with another "no name" loss.

Towson loss to (1-9) Rhode Island.
VERY DOUBTFUL.. but would keep Towson out of the playoffs

Northern Iowa loss to Southern Ill.
Another 6 win team, but this one is from the powerful Missouri valley (I don't agree.. but the pollsters do)
The Panters will get in with 7 wins.

 

[IdaGriz01]

My take is pretty close to what's laid out above. It's actually somewhat surprising that relatively few of the games next weekend have a major impact on who might or might not get bids. (Of course, some -- like Griz-Cat, obviously -- are huge.) Anyway, here goes:

Big Sky
The Big Sky situation has been outlined elsewhere, but I’ll reiterate some key points here. Of course, the Griz must win or the rest doesn’t matter. The general thinking is that we want NAU to beat SUU, and EWU to beat PSU. Then the championship/auto-bid is “in play” among two-loss teams, with PSU out because they would have 3 conference losses. I would then think the Big Sky would surely get three teams in (including the auto-bid) and that the Griz would be one of them. A fourth bid seems likely, given the number of conference teams that have been ranked this year, but it’s hard to guess who that would be.

Big South
Charleston Southern already has the auto-bid. But Coastal Carolina (9-1) will surely get a bid, even if they lose at Liberty next weekend.

CAA
The Colonial could be a real mess. The current leader, William & Mary, plays at Richmond next weekend. If W&M wins and James Madison wins (at home) against Villanova, then they will have two lock bids for 9-2 teams. If “form holds” in the other games, the conference would also have four 7-4 teams (ouch). If you start playing with other win-loss combination, things go to Hell in a hurry. I could easily see the CAA getting only those two locks, or they could go all the way to four or even five bids. I’m thinking they get four.

Ivy, MEAC, and SWAC
Don’t have to worry about these since they either don’t play (Ivy), or have their own sandbox. There’s an outside chance the second-place team from the MEAC (currently Bethune-Cookman) could get an auto-bid, but I rather doubt it.

Missouri Valley
The MVFC has three teams at the top of the conference that I consider locks, even in the unlikely chance that there was a plague of upsets next weekend. South Dakota State is on the road at Western Illinois, so I suppose there’s a chance they could be upset ... but at 8-3, they’d still get in. And Western Illinois already has five losses, so even an upset probably would not get them a bid. The only real drama involves Northern Iowa, which sits at 6-4 and hosts Southern Illinois. If by some amazing, unlikely stroke the Salukis knock off UNI, then the Panthers would be out. So MVFC gets three for sure and most likely four.

Northeast
The NEC will get its auto-bid, period. As it happens, the two conference leaders, Duquesne (7-3) and St. Francis, PA (6-3), face off next weekend, so the winner is in.

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (9-1) has already locked up the auto-bid in the OVC. The second and third place teams, Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky, face off next weekend. Whichever way the game goes, the winner will end up at 7-4, the loser at 6-5. A 7-4 team from the OVC might get an at-large bid ... but that’s hardly a given.

Patriot
Colgate already has the auto-bid from the Patriot League, as a result of their head-to-head win against Fordham. Thus, their game against Bucknell (4-6) is essentially meaningless, except for where they end up in the brackets. Meanwhile, Fordham (9-2) sits idle and can pretty well count on an at-large bid.

Pioneer
The PFL is another outfit that gets its auto-bid only. That’s already wrapped up by Dayton (10-0).

Southern
The SoCon auto-bid went to Chattanooga (8-2) when they beat The Citadel (7-3) on Saturday. Both teams play FBS opponents next weekend. If, by some incredible chance, Citadel knocked off South Carolina, they’d be 8-3 and would certainly get an at-large bid. But that’s highly unlikely and recent history says a 7-4 team from the SoCon is not likely to get a bid. (But stranger things have happened.)

Southland
McNeese State (9-0) has already wrapped up the Southland Conference, so the only question is how many other teams will get at-large bids. The number two and three teams -- Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State -- are each 7-3, but they play each other next weekend. The winner will be 8-3 and will surely get a bid. The loser will be 7-4 and will join that great throng of teams hoping that will be good enough. The Southland has done pretty well this year, overall, so I think they get three bids anyway.

If you add up all the “probable,” “likely,” and other top numbers, these account for all 24 bids. The top four seeds will most likely be Jacksonville State, NDSU, McNeese, and (if they win next weekend) William & Mary. In the last case, if Richmond wins next weekend, they get that seed. Beyond that, I would not care to guess. (And, no, it would not surprise me if the Big Sky does not get a high seed.)

 

[grizindabox]

I believe these are the key games... obviously UM must win.

Helps the Griz
Sam Houston over Cent Ark.
Both are 7-3 but a highly thought of 7-4 Sam Houston probably gets in.

PSU over EWU
EWU is also highly thought of, but there is no way they get in at 6-5 with 3 straight loses.

James Madison over Vilanova
Nova has had some great games and keep hanging close. Right now they have 6 wins and a win over top 10 JM gets them in.

SUU over NAU
I still think the Griz get the nod over NAU because they beat them. However NAU lately is killing teams and will make it very hard on the committee if they beat SUU.

Poly over N Dakota.
Griz get nod over ND, but would be nice to make it official with another "no name" loss.

Towson loss to (1-9) Rhode Island.
VERY DOUBTFUL.. but would keep Towson out of the playoffs

Northern Iowa loss to Southern Ill.
Another 6 win team, but this one is from the powerful Missouri valley (I don't agree.. but the pollsters do)
The Panters will get in with 7 wins.

Benefits the Griz more if EWU beats PSU IMHO

 

[SaskGriz]

Lots of you guys especially Payton know heaps more than I do. But I figure GRIZ win gets us in with a home 1st rounder. NCAA loves a big crowd and even though we are usually "only" around 19,000 it will still be one of the largest gates of the play-offs.

 

[firmgriz]

If the Griz win in Bozo they will host a first round game.

 

[ordigger]

I believe these are the key games... obviously UM must win.

Helps the Griz
Sam Houston over Cent Ark.
Both are 7-3 but a highly thought of 7-4 Sam Houston probably gets in.

PSU over EWU
EWU is also highly thought of, but there is no way they get in at 6-5 with 3 straight loses.

James Madison over Vilanova
Nova has had some great games and keep hanging close. Right now they have 6 wins and a win over top 10 JM gets them in.

SUU over NAU
I still think the Griz get the nod over NAU because they beat them. However NAU lately is killing teams and will make it very hard on the committee if they beat SUU.

Poly over N Dakota.
Griz get nod over ND, but would be nice to make it official with another "no name" loss.

Towson loss to (1-9) Rhode Island.
VERY DOUBTFUL.. but would keep Towson out of the playoffs

Northern Iowa loss to Southern Ill.
Another 6 win team, but this one is from the powerful Missouri valley (I don't agree.. but the pollsters do)
The Panters will get in with 7 wins.

Benefits the Griz more if EWU beats PSU IMHO

IF EWU wins, and NAU wins then I think I saw we get the autobid. Also no way UND has any shot win or lose. A 3 loss Big Sky school has no chance.

 

[DoubleNicks]

I believe these are the key games... obviously UM must win.

Helps the Griz
Sam Houston over Cent Ark.
Both are 7-3 but a highly thought of 7-4 Sam Houston probably gets in.

PSU over EWU
EWU is also highly thought of, but there is no way they get in at 6-5 with 3 straight loses.

James Madison over Vilanova
Nova has had some great games and keep hanging close. Right now they have 6 wins and a win over top 10 JM gets them in.

SUU over NAU
I still think the Griz get the nod over NAU because they beat them. However NAU lately is killing teams and will make it very hard on the committee if they beat SUU.

Poly over N Dakota.
Griz get nod over ND, but would be nice to make it official with another "no name" loss.

Towson loss to (1-9) Rhode Island.
VERY DOUBTFUL.. but would keep Towson out of the playoffs

Northern Iowa loss to Southern Ill.
Another 6 win team, but this one is from the powerful Missouri valley (I don't agree.. but the pollsters do)
The Panters will get in with 7 wins.

Agree for the most part, although Sam Houston State played a D2, so I would think Griz would have better resume if both end up @ 7-4. If SHSU wins, both SHSU & UCA could/probably get in but if UCA wins then I think only UCA gets in (SHSU would only have 6 DI wins), opening up a spot for bubble teams.

 

[DoubleNicks]

Also no way UND has any shot win or lose. A 3 loss Big Sky school has no chance.

I think a 7-4 team from a power conference with an all DI schedule and a FBS win gets in regardless of others at this point. So, if they win, they are in. Lose and they're out.

 

[Bisonation]

Also no way UND has any shot win or lose. A 3 loss Big Sky school has no chance.

I think a 7-4 team from a power conference with an all DI schedule and a FBS win gets in regardless of others at this point. So, if they win, they are in. Lose and they're out.

ah NO.

UND needs to win and TON of help/upsets.

UND's good wins:
Portland good win 7-2 won by 1

UND's bad wins:
Wyoming - 1-10
UNC - 5-5
Msu - 5-5
Drake - 3-6
UC Davis - 1-9
UC Poly - 4-7

UND bad losses:
Idaho State 2-8
Weber State 5-5

 

[AZGrizFan]

Also no way UND has any shot win or lose. A 3 loss Big Sky school has no chance.

I think a 7-4 team from a power conference with an all DI schedule and a FBS win gets in regardless of others at this point. So, if they win, they are in. Lose and they're out.

ah NO.

UND needs to win and TON of help/upsets.

UND's good wins:
Portland good win 7-2 won by 1

UND's bad wins:
Wyoming - 1-10
UNC - 5-5
Msu - 5-5
Drake - 3-6
UC Davis - 1-9
UC Poly - 4-7

UND bad losses:
Idaho State 2-8
Weber State 5-5

Question: Is UND a "good" win for NDSU?

Question #2: Is USD a "bad" loss?

 

[Bisonation]

Und is not a good win for NDSU

Usd is the WORST LOSS in NDSU history (with a QB having a broken wrist the entire 2nd half & losing on last second FG)

 

[Paytonlives]

Benefits the Griz more if EWU beats PSU IMHO

I really dont understand this though process...

If EWU wins they will be in &
PSU if loses they will still be in...

So I think the Griz want PSU to win so that EWU is out. The Big Sky is only going to get X amount of teams, so any big Sky team that is out puts the Griz in a better spot.

The whole these three teams win and UM is the Auto is a big stretch.

 

[grizindabox]

Benefits the Griz more if EWU beats PSU IMHO

I really dont understand this though process...

If EWU wins they will be in &
PSU if loses they will still be in...

So I think the Griz want PSU to win so that EWU is out. The Big Sky is only going to get X amount of teams, so any big Sky team that is out puts the Griz in a better spot.

The whole these three teams win and UM is the Auto is a big stretch.

It will give the Griz tie break in certain situations....but if the Griz win they will be in before EWU, NAU, and UND...PSU will be in either way....not sure the EWU-PSU game will be an issue for the Griz if they win except for the tie break issue

 

[Grizzlies1982]

I really dont understand this though process...

If EWU wins they will be in &
PSU if loses they will still be in...

So I think the Griz want PSU to win so that EWU is out. The Big Sky is only going to get X amount of teams, so any big Sky team that is out puts the Griz in a better spot.

The whole these three teams win and UM is the Auto is a big stretch.

A bit of a stretch because it requires all three specific outcomes this weekend...
1. Montana beats State. 2. Eastern WA beats Portland. 3. Northern Arizona beats So Utah.
All three outcomes are far from certain, yet not one of these is a far fetched result.

Our Grizzlies are PROBABLY in if they win at MSU yet it's not certain. If the above occurs the Griz are GUARANTEED Confrence Champs auto bid. That is the only reason I'd like to see it happen.


Otherwise...
The most straight forward result is So. Utah beats No Arizona. Then SUU gets auto-bid and NAU is 7-4 hoping for a bid. A 7-4 Montana would have the edge over NAU due to a substantial head to head win over them.

If No Arizona beats So Utah then NAU is 8-3 and in, and they possibly help make us champs. Yet So Utah is probably out at 7-4, with a two game losing streak, and no wins over the other top conference teams. If Montana isn't champs, UM should still get the nod over SUU after sound wins over NAU, No Dakota, and a highly ranked No Dakota St.

Portland State is in win or lose. With a win they're at 9-2 and likely a decent seed (#5, 6, 7) even if they're not conference champs. With a loss they are 8-3 and still an at-large selection ahead of Montana.

Eastern WA is in the playoff hunt with a win. However, they won't be ahead of (or in lieu of) the Grizzlies. Montana would hold an identical record and a head to head beat down on EWU. So I don't see any negative implications if EWU wins, though it would possibly help make us conf. champs.

North Dakota is the remaining Big Sky team in the playoff mix. They can finish at 7-4 if they win at Cal Poly. They would hold wins over FBS Wyoming and over Portland. Though they were thrashed by Montana so the Grizzlies should hold an edge over them with the selection committee. Yet if you want any Big Sky team to lose they might be the best choice just to not muddy the waters with too many conference teams in the mix.


Right now only Portland St is a lock. The So Utah & No Arizona winner is also a lock. So if you believe the Big Sky will get only two teams into the playoffs then Montana is in big trouble. If you believe three or four teams are in then Montana appears to be on pretty solid ground regardless of these other games. Yet the three game scenario outlined above guarantees the Grizzlies are in.

So believe it, or not, go EWU & NAU and Go Griz!

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

UND's bad wins:

Msu - 5-5

That can't be overstated enough times, because even that bad 5-5 record is better looking than it really is, because 2 of those wins were against glorified high schools teams; a poor rmac team and also a 1st year program with almost all freshman roster. So state college of bozeman is really 3-5 in many peoples minds!! :lol: