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Playoff Bid Guesses (Nov 23)

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Not much point in making poll guesses this time around, so I figured I’d substitute my guesses at bids. It really did not turn out to be as hard as I thought it might be. That was mainly because there were 24 slots to fill. So here goes, broken out by conference (obviously, the first team listed for a conference has the automatic bid).

Team (Record) {Seed}
Big Sky: EWU (10-2) {3}
Montana (10-2) {5}
Northern Arizona (9-2)

Big South: Coastal Carolina (10-2)

CAA: Maine (10-2) {6}
Towson (10-2) {8}
New Hampshire (7-4)

MEAC: Bethune-Cookman (10-2)

MVC: NDSU (11-0) {1}
South Dakota State (8-4)
Youngstown State (8-4)

NEC: Sacred Heart (10-2)

OVC: Eastern Illinois (11-1) {2}
Tennessee State (9-3)
Jacksonville State (9-3)

Patriot: Lafayette (5-6)
Fordham (11-1)

Pioneer: Butler (9-3)

SoCon: Furman (7-5)
Samford (8-4)
Chattanooga (8-4)

Southland: SE Louisiana (10-2) {4}
McNeese State (10-2) {7}
Sam Houston State (8-4)

You might be interested in some of those who didn't make it. Obviously, one such team was Southern Utah. Actually, there were only two 4-loss teams that got left out: SUU and Liberty. Liberty pulled an upset in their last game, and SUU didn’t ... so even if I had decided to include another 4-loss team, it probably would not have been Southern. (Considering what Liberty did, they might get in, but they probably waited too late in the season to make their play.)

As it happens, this list also excludes three teams that had only 3 losses: Charleston Southern, South Carolina State, and Lehigh. Basically, they got bumped because their GPI/SOS was just too weak. I did not include any 5-loss teams (like you-know-who :) ).
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Not much point in making poll guesses this time around, so I figured I’d substitute my guesses at bids. It really did not turn out to be as hard as I thought it might be. That was mainly because there were 24 slots to fill. So here goes, broken out by conference (obviously, the first team listed for a conference has the automatic bid).

Team (Record) {Seed}
Big Sky: EWU (10-2) {3}
Montana (10-2) {5}
Northern Arizona (9-2)

Big South: Coastal Carolina (10-2)

CAA: Maine (10-2) {6}
Towson (10-2) {8}
New Hampshire (7-4)

MEAC: Bethune-Cookman (10-2)

MVC: NDSU (11-0) {1}
South Dakota State (8-4)
Youngstown State (8-4)

NEC: Sacred Heart (10-2)

OVC: Eastern Illinois (11-1) {2}
Tennessee State (9-3)
Jacksonville State (9-3)

Patriot: Lafayette (5-6)
Fordham (11-1)

Pioneer: Butler (9-3)

SoCon: Furman (7-5)
Samford (8-4)
Chattanooga (8-4)

Southland: SE Louisiana (10-2) {4}
McNeese State (10-2) {7}
Sam Houston State (8-4)

You might be interested in some of those who didn't make it. Obviously, one such team was Southern Utah. Actually, there were only two 4-loss teams that got left out: SUU and Liberty. Liberty pulled an upset in their last game, and SUU didn’t ... so even if I had decided to include another 4-loss team, it probably would not have been Southern. (Considering what Liberty did, they might get in, but they probably waited too late in the season to make their play.)

As it happens, this list also excludes three teams that had only 3 losses: Charleston Southern, South Carolina State, and Lehigh. Basically, they got bumped because their GPI/SOS was just too weak. I did not include any 5-loss teams (like you-know-who :) ).
Click to expand...

With the chair of the committee being from the CAA i bet a team from the CAA gets the #5 seed.
 
With the chair of the committee being from the CAA i bet a team from the CAA gets the #5 seed.
Click to expand...

I hope they do get the #5. That would put them in North Dakota State's bracket. The GRIZ would be much better off with a #6 or #7.
 
62GRIZ said:
With the chair of the committee being from the CAA i bet a team from the CAA gets the #5 seed.
Click to expand...

I hope they do get the #5. That would put them in North Dakota State's bracket. The GRIZ would be much better off with a #6 or #7.
Click to expand...

I agree would not want to be on the NDSU side of the bracket. I think a 6 seed would set up a quarterfinal match in Cheney in mid December which would be big ESPN ratings and the Griz have improved a lot since Oct. 25th. EWU showed they can be beaten and JUST dodged a bullet v. PSU.
 
I think there's a chance we get a 3 seed, on the theory a 4 seed would put us in the bracket opposite EWU, and the committee will want us in the same bracket to avoid a NC game with two teams from the same conference.
 
My best guess (trying to get in under the gun):

NDSU
EIU
EWU
SELA
Towson
Montana
McNeese
Maine

SDSU
YSU
Coastal Carolina
NAU
SHSU
UNI
Fordham
Bethune Cookman
Furman
Sacred Heart
Lafayette
Butler
New Hampshire
Tennesee State
Jacksonville State
Southern Illinois (Shocker!)
 
I would not be surprised to see Chattanooga, Samford, or South Carolina State somewhere in that bottom 3. Pretty certain about the 21 above that.
 
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