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Percentages on getting in NCAAs????

K

kevraid

Well-known member
Anyone have thoughts on chance Lady Griz get in 50% 25% 1% 90%?? Anyone at all. I don`t know anything about bubble teams in womens basketball. Any arguments who we could beat out or who might nudge us out??
 
Any arguments who we could beat out or who might nudge us out??
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You better hope that NAU wins the automatic bid then. How else would the NCAA Selection Committee validate selecting a team that lost to another team that lost in the BSC Title game, without selecting them as well? If ISU wins, which has a good chance of doing so on a neutral court, being that they split with NAU this year already, there is 0 % chance of the LG being in the NCAAs this year.

ISU won at home 95 - 79 and lost on the road 62 - 70.

Web site below cites 'biggest upset in school history:'

http://nau.newtier.com

Maybe if this was the SEC or the ACC, but not in the BSC.
 
WyomingGrizFan said:
Any arguments who we could beat out or who might nudge us out??
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You better hope that NAU wins the automatic bid then. How else would the NCAA Selection Committee validate selecting a team that lost to another team that lost in the BSC Title game, without selecting them as well? If ISU wins, which has a good chance of doing so on a neutral court, being that they split with NAU this year already, there is 0 % chance of the LG being in the NCAAs this year.

ISU won at home 95 - 79 and lost on the road 62 - 70.

Web site below cites 'biggest upset in school history:'

http://nau.newtier.com

Maybe if this was the SEC or the ACC, but not in the BSC.
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What?? I don't follow the logic. This kind of shi# happens all the time. The committe looks at the entire season, not just the 2 or 3 game conference tournament. If the Griz deserve to be in (and I'm very confident the committee will think they do), it won't make one lick of difference who wins the BSC title game.
 
What?? I don't follow the logic.
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So, if ISU wins the BSC Title game, then it wouldn't seem rather odd if the LG get selected at-large? That would be saying to NAU so what then, huh? Then what's the purpose of playing the tournament then?

This happens all the time in the BSC? Maybe in the SEC and the ACC, but come on now.
 
Besides, if the NCAA Selection Committee follows precedent, the 2004-05 Gonzaga team were rated #23 in both the AP Poll & the Coaches Poll during week #16 before they lost in the West Coast Conference Tournament 'Title' game against Santa Clara, ending up with a 27 - 3 record as well.

After their loss they were rated #31 in the AP Poll & #28 in the Coaches Poll in week #17. They weren't selected into the NCAAs and had to settle for a WNIT bid.
I wouldn't say that the LG has a better chance. The pressure was on and they wilted, not once but twice as they did against WSU as talk of a Top 25 rating was in the air; why bother selecting them?...so they can embarrass the selecting committee when there are so many other teams on the bubble that can cry foul?
 
Another besides, which, it isn't bad to go out and win a tournament that you're invited to, at least in order to forego insulting the competition at least.

http://www.womensnit.com/index.htm

Previous winners:

2007 Montana (?)
2006 Kansas State (playing their game in the first sell out that they had in two years in Manhatten, Kansas with 13,340 attending)
2005 Southwest Missouri State
2004 Creighton
2003 Auburn
2002 Oregon
2001 Ohio State
2000 Wisconsin
1999 Arkansas
1998 Penn State

...at least other teams felt it was worth the bother.
 
Montana has almost exactly the same resume as that 27-3 Gonzaga team did in 2004-2005. RPIs are almost exact, SOS is similar, number of top 100 wins is similar.

All the experts had Gonzaga in then, too. The selection committee put in teams like #45 Purdue (15-12), #46 Oklahoma (16-12), and #55 Ole Miss (19-10).

Gonzaga was #48. When they got left out, there was somewhat of an uproar, so maybe the committee will think of that when they make their picks.

But, just last year they left out Western Kentucky who was (24-6) and #17 in the RPI.



Here are the bubble threats to Montana:

#44 Auburn (19-12)
#45 Hoftsra (24-6) - Their tourney is through Sunday, so hopefully they lose.
#46 Washington (18-12)
#51 Virginia (17-14)
#52 New Mexico (23-8) - They play #38 BYU for the MVC champ, need them to lose.
#56 Indiana (18-13)
#57 Virginia Tech (18-14)
 
Figure that the top 35 teams are in. That's a little generic, but pretty accurate historically.

20 automatic bids are outside of those top 35. So that's 55 teams in, leaving 9 teams for at-large bids. A team in the RPI upper 60's has gotten an at-large most years, so I count about 24 bubble teams.


The good news is that Wyoming has a representative on the selection committee. Maybe that will help, since Montana beat them twice.
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
Montana has almost exactly the same resume as that 27-3 Gonzaga team did in 2004-2005. RPIs are almost exact, SOS is similar, number of top 100 wins is similar.

All the experts had Gonzaga in then, too. The selection committee put in teams like #45 Purdue (15-12), #46 Oklahoma (16-12), and #55 Ole Miss (19-10).

Gonzaga was #48. When they got left out, there was somewhat of an uproar, so maybe the committee will think of that when they make their picks.

But, just last year they left out Western Kentucky who was (24-6) and #17 in the RPI.



Here are the bubble threats to Montana:

#44 Auburn (19-12)
#45 Hoftsra (24-6) - Their tourney is through Sunday, so hopefully they lose.
#46 Washington (18-12)
#51 Virginia (17-14)
#52 New Mexico (23-8) - They play #38 BYU for the MVC champ, need them to lose.
#56 Indiana (18-13)
#57 Virginia Tech (18-14)
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Some important differences between the 27 - 3 Gonzaga team that didn't make it and this year's Lady Griz team are:

1. Gonzaga beat a top 25 team. Lady Griz did not.
2. Gonzaga never lost to a team ranked lower than 100. Lady Griz did.


Those two facts could hurt Lady Griz this year. But, this year is different. Strength of Schedule I would say hurt Gonzaga that year, allowing some other teams to bump them out. Because of Lady Griz's strength of schedule also being ranked lower than 200, Lady Griz will have to rely on other teams to lose.
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
Figure that the top 35 teams are in. That's a little generic, but pretty accurate historically.

20 automatic bids are outside of those top 35. So that's 55 teams in, leaving 9 teams for at-large bids. A team in the RPI upper 60's has gotten an at-large most years, so I count about 24 bubble teams.


The good news is that Wyoming has a representative on the selection committee. Maybe that will help, since Montana beat them twice.
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I remember Robin Selvig puzzled on why a Utah team that was ranked in mid to upper 40s didn't get an at-large bid a couple years ago.
 
Gonzaga's good wins in 2004-2005:
#24 Utah
#52 Montana
#92 Santa Clara (twice)
#99 Idaho

Losses:
#22 Arizona State
#28 New Mexico
#92 Santa Clara


Montana's good wins in 2006-2007:
#47 Gonzaga
#55 Davidson
#73 Wyoming (twice)
#99 Northern Arizona (twice)

Losses:
#7 Ohio State
#99 Northern Arizona
#174 Weber State
 
I am rooting for NAU to win tonight's game. NAU has the second best RPI ranking, and, if collegerpi.com's RPIs are correct, have now moved into the top 100 rank. Helps the committee a little bit when looking at the records against top 100 teams, and determining at-large teams. Could be a deciding factor.
 
GrizBBIsKing said:
Montana Gym Rat said:
Figure that the top 35 teams are in. That's a little generic, but pretty accurate historically.

20 automatic bids are outside of those top 35. So that's 55 teams in, leaving 9 teams for at-large bids. A team in the RPI upper 60's has gotten an at-large most years, so I count about 24 bubble teams.


The good news is that Wyoming has a representative on the selection committee. Maybe that will help, since Montana beat them twice.
Click to expand...

I remember Robin Selvig puzzled on why a Utah team that was ranked in mid to upper 40s didn't get an at-large bid a couple years ago.
Click to expand...


Yep. The Women's Selection Committee always seems to leave a very deserving team out for some reason. I think Montana deserves to be in the tourney, so hopefully they aren't the deserving team left out this year.

2006 - #17 Western Kentucky
2005 - #48 Gonzaga
2004 - #38 Utah
2003 - #38 St. Joseph's
2002 - #35 Virginia Tech
 
GrizBBIsKing said:
I am rooting for NAU to win tonight's game. NAU has the second best RPI ranking, and, if collegerpi.com's RPIs are correct, have now moved into the top 100 rank. Helps the committee a little bit when looking at the records against top 100 teams, and determining at-large teams. Could be a deciding factor.
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Excellent point. An NAU victory will ensure the Lady Griz the 2 extra wins against Top 100 teams, and also over another tournament team.
 
Lady Griz fans should root for Bowling Green & Wisc.-Green Bay today. Both are playing in their conference title games & should they lose would both take up an at large bid.
 
OUR LG lose, at home to a team they had beaten twice...we had our opportunity and blew it.

Still, it would be nice to see the NCAA acknowledge a very good team of top twenty five material with an at large. But if we don't get one the NIT appears to be our only shot.

Congrats to NAU for pulling off a win in Mizzoula! They earned it, but they still have to play one more. IF they win tonight, maybe our most legit chance to have hope for an at large bid.

Bottom line, a great year, great committed coaching staff, talent abounding...proud to support these terriffic women...GREAT SEASON
GALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Unwrittengriz said:
Lady Griz fans should root for Bowling Green & Wisc.-Green Bay today. Both are playing in their conference title games & should they lose would both take up an at large bid.
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Bowling Green just won the MAC bid. They beat Ball State.

I would hope the committee puts Montana in over Ball State, but they are very unpredictable.


UW-Green Bay plays Butler tomorrow for the Horizon bid.
 
...a ten seed would probably mean playing a 2 seed in the second round; a team near Ohio State's quality, but it's better than being a nine and playing Duke in the second round!
 
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