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Pease and the Falsehood of "Stats"

AZGrizFan said:
Let me preface this rant by stating that a) I always thought Ferris was gonna be a tough game and b) I'm so far not a fan of Pease's offense and it's obvious we have some work to do and some kinks to work out.

That being said, it amazes me how many people wrapped around the axle on stats, this game being Exhibit A. OMG! They had more yards than us! OMG we lost the TOP! OMG we only had 189 yards of offense! There's a reason why the saying "there's lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics" was invented. Let me break it down for you:

a) UM started the game going BACKWARDS because of penalties. Ended up in a 4th and 40, meaning they started their 2nd drive 30 yards in the hole (from a stats perspective). Thus, from the beginning of their 2nd drive, they actually had 219 yards of offense (not alot, I'll grant you, but stay with me here...)
b) Ferris had 106 yards in penalties, many of those being defensive penalties that are tacked on (facemask, targeting, PI, etc.). Hell, Montana got 6 of their first downs BY PENALTY. Those yards do NOT count in the "offensive production", yet they move the ball and keep the drives alive. In other words, those yards aren't credited to ANYONE, and they take away opportunities to pad the stats with runs and passes. And Montana had 79 yards of their OWN penalties including a couple PI calls that advanced the ball for Ferris...
c) Ferris State's lone TD was a 39 yard drive set up by the Vidlak INT. And 15 of THOSE yards were one of those poop PI calls on Fouch. Montana's two TD drives in the 3rd quarter started on the Ferris 40 and 30 yard lines, respectively thanks to two terrific Bergen punt returns. Statistically, just 91 yards of total offense (24 by Ferris, 67 by Montana, when you subtract the penalty yards awarded) was required to score the three TD's in the game. Would you rather that Montana have gaudy stats by having to go the length of the field to score every time? I'll take low offensive production and short fields all day long.
d) When two teams combine for 81 rushing attempts, there's not gonna be a lot of incomplete passes to stop the clock. Thus, fewer # of plays, less offensive production. It's not rocket science.

You're welcome. Now back to the regularly scheduled teeth-gnashing over the lack of offensive production.

More excuse making for a dismal offensive performance against a team who gave-up 330 yards and 28 points to a middling Div.II team just a week earlier.

No, it is not rocket science, but your rocket blew a gasket upon take-off.
 
EverettGriz said:
AZGrizFan said:
yes, there are anomalies. And when you can have a game FULL of those anomalies and STILL come away with a win? Bonus, IMHO.

This. Look at the Chiefs this weekend. Couldn’t have played worse offensively: turned it over 3 times in Jax territory, had 95 yards In penalties, and STILL beat a playoff team.

Some may look at that and say, “Man, the Chiefs struggled”. Most look at it and say, “Holy poop. How good are hey going to be when they play a clean game?”

No different here.

Please.................
 
thirdandlong said:
EverettGriz said:
This. Look at the Chiefs this weekend. Couldn’t have played worse offensively: turned it over 3 times in Jax territory, had 95 yards In penalties, and STILL beat a playoff team.

Some may look at that and say, “Man, the Chiefs struggled”. Most look at it and say, “Holy poop. How good are hey going to be when they play a clean game?”

No different here.

Please.................

Thanks you.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
AZGrizFan said:
Not according to the box score. They were facing 4th and 40 from their own 10. Is that not true?

24 yards of penalties that don't count in total offensive yardage.

Yes, sorry. You are correct. That point had already been clarified.
 
thirdandlong said:
AZGrizFan said:
Let me preface this rant by stating that a) I always thought Ferris was gonna be a tough game and b) I'm so far not a fan of Pease's offense and it's obvious we have some work to do and some kinks to work out.

That being said, it amazes me how many people wrapped around the axle on stats, this game being Exhibit A. OMG! They had more yards than us! OMG we lost the TOP! OMG we only had 189 yards of offense! There's a reason why the saying "there's lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics" was invented. Let me break it down for you:

a) UM started the game going BACKWARDS because of penalties. Ended up in a 4th and 40, meaning they started their 2nd drive 30 yards in the hole (from a stats perspective). Thus, from the beginning of their 2nd drive, they actually had 219 yards of offense (not alot, I'll grant you, but stay with me here...)
b) Ferris had 106 yards in penalties, many of those being defensive penalties that are tacked on (facemask, targeting, PI, etc.). Hell, Montana got 6 of their first downs BY PENALTY. Those yards do NOT count in the "offensive production", yet they move the ball and keep the drives alive. In other words, those yards aren't credited to ANYONE, and they take away opportunities to pad the stats with runs and passes. And Montana had 79 yards of their OWN penalties including a couple PI calls that advanced the ball for Ferris...
c) Ferris State's lone TD was a 39 yard drive set up by the Vidlak INT. And 15 of THOSE yards were one of those poop PI calls on Fouch. Montana's two TD drives in the 3rd quarter started on the Ferris 40 and 30 yard lines, respectively thanks to two terrific Bergen punt returns. Statistically, just 91 yards of total offense (24 by Ferris, 67 by Montana, when you subtract the penalty yards awarded) was required to score the three TD's in the game. Would you rather that Montana have gaudy stats by having to go the length of the field to score every time? I'll take low offensive production and short fields all day long.
d) When two teams combine for 81 rushing attempts, there's not gonna be a lot of incomplete passes to stop the clock. Thus, fewer # of plays, less offensive production. It's not rocket science.

You're welcome. Now back to the regularly scheduled teeth-gnashing over the lack of offensive production.

More excuse making for a dismal offensive performance against a team who gave-up 330 yards and 28 points to a middling Div.II team just a week earlier.

No, it is not rocket science, but your rocket blew a gasket upon take-off.

I prefer to measure success by wins and losses. So far, so good.
 
bgbigdog said:
Grizfan-24 said:
AZ solid post. Very solid. Very much agreed.

Over the years in doing stats analysis for the programs I coached in, stats tell part of the story but not all of it. Some are instructive and some aren't. I don't like gross stats (total yards as an example) as much as the small focus ones like (yards per carry, zone tendencies, and the like).

If you want to know how bad Idaho State's defense has been over the first three games, they have yet to return a punt. They have zero returns for zero yards over the first 3 games Pair it with the fact that they've given up 155 pts in 3 games to know those two stats are all that you need to know they are terrible defensively. The more you can pair together, you start to get a full picture and the story that goes behind it.

Montana's offense was abjectly terrible on Saturday night. A lot of self inflicted errors on the field and some overly conservative play calling led to some prolonged inefficiency.

I loved what they came out in, because it was the perfect foil for what FSU runs and it was meant to take advantage of Montana's clear strengths. They didn't stay with it, and the zone and hit charts will prove it. They played within the box and hashes for the rest of the first half rather than attacking the perimeter, up the sidelines, where Montana could win 1v1 battles. When they moved the ball in the second half, before mistakes ensued :D again, it was on the edges and up the field.

Anyhow. Great post.

Not that you would know this GF, but this reply is now his screen saver on every electronic device he owns. And he's now working on how to get it blown up large enough to fit on the wall next his his big screen TV. If you're ever in need of a loan...

:D :D :D :D but he’s right about the loan, 24. :thumb:
 
Here is a stat. Griz had 23 plays on first down and gained 87 yards for an average of 3.8yds. But when you realize that 49 of those yards were gained in 2 plays, that means that on first down they averaged 1.8 yards on the other 21 attempts. Not great.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
Here is a stat. Griz had 23 plays on first down and gained 87 yards for an average of 3.8yds. But when you realize that 49 of those yards were gained in 2 plays, that means that on first down they averaged 1.8 yards on the other 21 attempts. Not great.

Not great. But you could also say in two plays they averaged 24.5 yards. OR, you can just say they averaged 3.8yards on first down…

It’s why I’m not a fan of “average” yards of anything.
 
AZGrizFan said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
Here is a stat. Griz had 23 plays on first down and gained 87 yards for an average of 3.8yds. But when you realize that 49 of those yards were gained in 2 plays, that means that on first down they averaged 1.8 yards on the other 21 attempts. Not great.

Not great. But you could also say in two plays they averaged 24.5 yards. OR, you can just say they averaged 3.8yards on first down…

It’s why I’m not a fan of “average” yards of anything.

Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
AZGrizFan said:
Not great. But you could also say in two plays they averaged 24.5 yards. OR, you can just say they averaged 3.8yards on first down…

It’s why I’m not a fan of “average” yards of anything.

Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?

Fair enough. But usually the team that scores the most points wins regardless of how many yards they average on first down. How bout dem?
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
AZGrizFan said:
Not great. But you could also say in two plays they averaged 24.5 yards. OR, you can just say they averaged 3.8yards on first down…

It’s why I’m not a fan of “average” yards of anything.

Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?

Interestingly enough, they had 18 chances on 2nd down, and averages 4.39 yards per play. Which leaves them in 3rd and just over 3 yards…on average. And on 3rd downs (13 of them) they averaged 2.38 yards, not counting the first downs they got by penalty.
 
AZGrizFan said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?

Fair enough. But usually the team that scores the most points wins regardless of how many yards they average on first down. How bout dem?

Worked for them last weekend. Guess we see how it plays out going forward.
 
AZGrizFan said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?

Interestingly enough, they had 18 chances on 2nd down, and averages 4.39 yards per play. Which leaves them in 3rd and just over 3 yards…and on 3rd downs (13 of them) they averaged 2.38 yards, not counting the first downs they got by penalty.

On average they were looking at third and 7.
 
argh! said:
AZGrizFan said:
Let me preface this rant by stating that a) I always thought Ferris was gonna be a tough game and b) I'm so far not a fan of Pease's offense and it's obvious we have some work to do and some kinks to work out.

That being said, it amazes me how many people wrapped around the axle on stats, this game being Exhibit A. OMG! They had more yards than us! OMG we lost the TOP! OMG we only had 189 yards of offense! There's a reason why the saying "there's lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics" was invented. Let me break it down for you:

a) UM started the game going BACKWARDS because of penalties. Ended up in a 4th and 40, meaning they started their 2nd drive 30 yards in the hole (from a stats perspective). Thus, from the beginning of their 2nd drive, they actually had 219 yards of offense (not alot, I'll grant you, but stay with me here...)
b) Ferris had 106 yards in penalties, many of those being defensive penalties that are tacked on (facemask, targeting, PI, etc.). Hell, Montana got 6 of their first downs BY PENALTY. Those yards do NOT count in the "offensive production", yet they move the ball and keep the drives alive. In other words, those yards aren't credited to ANYONE, and they take away opportunities to pad the stats with runs and passes. And Montana had 79 yards of their OWN penalties including a couple PI calls that advanced the ball for Ferris...
c) Ferris State's lone TD was a 39 yard drive set up by the Vidlak INT. And 15 of THOSE yards were one of those poop PI calls on Fouch. Montana's two TD drives in the 3rd quarter started on the Ferris 40 and 30 yard lines, respectively thanks to two terrific Bergen punt returns. Statistically, just 91 yards of total offense (24 by Ferris, 67 by Montana, when you subtract the penalty yards awarded) was required to score the three TD's in the game. Would you rather that Montana have gaudy stats by having to go the length of the field to score every time? I'll take low offensive production and short fields all day long.
d) When two teams combine for 81 rushing attempts, there's not gonna be a lot of incomplete passes to stop the clock. Thus, fewer # of plays, less offensive production. It's not rocket science.

You're welcome. Now back to the regularly scheduled teeth-gnashing over the lack of offensive production.

i read the whole thing. my only question is... and?

:lol:
 
AZGrizFan said:
uptopgriz said:
Can't wait to see the keyboard excuses from you and Hoops following the Davis game.

I understand for you haters that facts can be disconcerting. Please clear up for me what "excuses" I'm laying out here. Straight facts. And perhaps you missed my preface?

'facts"? Right on, dude? You sure have sunken to a new low this season. Do you have a latent need to be accepted by the sugar-coaters?
 
thirdandlong said:
AZGrizFan said:
I understand for you haters that facts can be disconcerting. Please clear up for me what "excuses" I'm laying out here. Straight facts. And perhaps you missed my preface?

'facts"? Right on, dude? You sure have sunken to a new low this season. Do you have a latent need to be accepted by the sugar-coaters?

:lol: :lol: :lol: if you think that then you haven't read many of my posts. I bend the knee to no man. Or pickle.
 
AZGrizFan said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
Over 91% of the time, the Griz offense averaged 1.8 yds on first down. How bout dem apples?

Fair enough. But usually the team that scores the most points wins regardless of how many yards they average on first down. How bout dem?

Let's see how that works out when they play actual quality teams like Idaho, Sac, MSU, and Davis.
 
I joked this weekend that during the TV timeout.......one of 334 of them. Griz just got the ball back and were going on offense....they were huddled and the long snapper and punter were already warming up.....that is a good sign that your Offense sucks LOL..............Pease needs to put down the Tecmo bowl play book, run, run, pass, punt.........repeat.
 
MTGRIZ12 said:
I joked this weekend that during the TV timeout.......one of 334 of them. Griz just got the ball back and were going on offense....they were huddled and the long snapper and punter were already warming up.....that is a good sign that your Offense sucks LOL..............Pease needs to put down the Tecmo bowl play book, run, run, pass, punt.........repeat.

1'st plays of drives:

Drive 1: pass (incomplete)
Drive 2: Rush (5 yards)
Drive 3: Rush (6 yards)
Drive 4: Rush (3 yards)
Drive 5: Rush (0 yards)
Drive 6: Pass (12 yards)
Drive 7: Pass (26 yards)
Drive 8: Rush (- 12 yards)
Drive 9: Rush (23 yards)
Drive 10: Rush (4 yards)

3 passes (average of 12.67 ypa), 7 rushes, average of 4.14 ypc Outside of the silly reverse attempt at -12 yards, there's really only one another drive you can complain about the production on the first play.

While I agree that against THAT defense we probably should have passed more often, if you're averaging 4+ YPC on first down, it's getting you to a down and distance you want to be in, for the most part.
 

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