It’s the last week of the regular season, there’s a ton of bubble teams playing and some crazy conference scenarios too. We all know the game we’ll be watching first as Montana and Montana State square off to play for a seed. The way I see it a Montana win lands them the 2 or 3 and Montana State then probably is somewhere in the 7 or 8 range. A Montana State win probably gives them the 3 seed as I’d bet the committee puts Furman over them (which I think is dumb, but whatever), and then I would suspect Montana probably lands somewhere around 5, 6, or 7.
Here's some other noteworthy games to follow this weekend;
Illinois State (6-4) @ #13 North Dakota (6-4): ISU isn’t even in the “RV” category. They lack any sort of signature win and have lost to SDSU, UNI, YSU, and E. Illinos – all stronger teams with winning records. I’m not sure if a win for ISU gets them a chance to make it or not, they probably need a ton of chaos to get in. UND however is in with a win for sure as they’re riding a nice ranking boost from a win against NDSU earlier this year. If UND loses and falls to 6-5, and ISU doesn’t get in at 7-4… not sure, could spell trouble for the F-Hawks.
#9 North Dakota State (7-3) @ #21 Northern Iowa (6-4): NDSU went from being on the brink of being left out of the playoffs to probably securing a seed with a win against UNI. They’ve got a few nice wins against SIU and UCA. Even if they win I just don’t know if their resume will look better than that of Montana’s or Montana State’s as the committee looks at those 5-8 seeds. UNI is doing what they always do, attempting a late season push, however a loss last weekend to 4 win Missouri State really put them on the edge. While we like to joke that a 5 or 6 win UNI is a lock… a loss for them pushes them out of the top 25, on a 2 game losing streak, and their early season loss to Weber State will also hang over them. This is probably a must win for them if they want to keep playing football after this weekend.
#10 Villanova (8-2) @ #7 Delaware (8-2): I attempted to rapidly find the crazy tie breaker scenarios for the CAA as it has 4 teams that are 6-1 in conference. Two of them play each other and it’s this game. The winner of this locks down a playoff seed. The other two 1-loss teams in the CAA are Albany, who plays a 4 win Monmouth team, and Richmond who plays a 6 win W&M team. Albany beat ‘Nova earlier this season, while UD’s one FCS loss is to 5 win Elon. Neither team in this matchup faced Richmond this season. Winner gets a week off, loser has to play again next week!
RV Richmond (7-3) @ William & Mary (6-4): Unsure what Richmond’s path is to winning the CAA, if it’s even possible. They need to beat W&M to get in the playoffs. W&M was picked to win the CAA but has had a handful of real bad losses that ensure they’re done playing after this weekend.
#20 Incarnate Word (7-2) @ Houston Christian (5-4): UIW has been a real strange team, squeaking out close wins and then losing to (now) conference champion Nicholls who will be headed to the post season at either 6-4 or 5-5 depending on how they do against SELA on Saturday. UIW has no signature wins, while HCU is on a 4 game winning streak (albeit against bad teams). If HCU wins, I think UIW is out of the playoffs, even though they’d post an 8-3 record. The coaches poll has UIW much higher and I see it’s getting some grumbles from a lot of FCS followers, so maybe they could sneak in even if they lose, but they’re probably going to be one of the last ones in, or the first few out.
#15 Austin Peay (8-2) @ RV Central Arkansas (7-3): I think this game will settle the champion/auto-bid for the newer UAC conference. AP is 5-0 while UCA is 4-1 in the conference standings. I’m unsure if the loser here can hang on and get an at-large. The UAC doesn’t have a lot of top-tier teams. I see UCA lost a game to Tarleton who is 8-3 this season but I believe ineligible for the post-season.
Here's some other noteworthy games to follow this weekend;
Illinois State (6-4) @ #13 North Dakota (6-4): ISU isn’t even in the “RV” category. They lack any sort of signature win and have lost to SDSU, UNI, YSU, and E. Illinos – all stronger teams with winning records. I’m not sure if a win for ISU gets them a chance to make it or not, they probably need a ton of chaos to get in. UND however is in with a win for sure as they’re riding a nice ranking boost from a win against NDSU earlier this year. If UND loses and falls to 6-5, and ISU doesn’t get in at 7-4… not sure, could spell trouble for the F-Hawks.
#9 North Dakota State (7-3) @ #21 Northern Iowa (6-4): NDSU went from being on the brink of being left out of the playoffs to probably securing a seed with a win against UNI. They’ve got a few nice wins against SIU and UCA. Even if they win I just don’t know if their resume will look better than that of Montana’s or Montana State’s as the committee looks at those 5-8 seeds. UNI is doing what they always do, attempting a late season push, however a loss last weekend to 4 win Missouri State really put them on the edge. While we like to joke that a 5 or 6 win UNI is a lock… a loss for them pushes them out of the top 25, on a 2 game losing streak, and their early season loss to Weber State will also hang over them. This is probably a must win for them if they want to keep playing football after this weekend.
#10 Villanova (8-2) @ #7 Delaware (8-2): I attempted to rapidly find the crazy tie breaker scenarios for the CAA as it has 4 teams that are 6-1 in conference. Two of them play each other and it’s this game. The winner of this locks down a playoff seed. The other two 1-loss teams in the CAA are Albany, who plays a 4 win Monmouth team, and Richmond who plays a 6 win W&M team. Albany beat ‘Nova earlier this season, while UD’s one FCS loss is to 5 win Elon. Neither team in this matchup faced Richmond this season. Winner gets a week off, loser has to play again next week!
RV Richmond (7-3) @ William & Mary (6-4): Unsure what Richmond’s path is to winning the CAA, if it’s even possible. They need to beat W&M to get in the playoffs. W&M was picked to win the CAA but has had a handful of real bad losses that ensure they’re done playing after this weekend.
#20 Incarnate Word (7-2) @ Houston Christian (5-4): UIW has been a real strange team, squeaking out close wins and then losing to (now) conference champion Nicholls who will be headed to the post season at either 6-4 or 5-5 depending on how they do against SELA on Saturday. UIW has no signature wins, while HCU is on a 4 game winning streak (albeit against bad teams). If HCU wins, I think UIW is out of the playoffs, even though they’d post an 8-3 record. The coaches poll has UIW much higher and I see it’s getting some grumbles from a lot of FCS followers, so maybe they could sneak in even if they lose, but they’re probably going to be one of the last ones in, or the first few out.
#15 Austin Peay (8-2) @ RV Central Arkansas (7-3): I think this game will settle the champion/auto-bid for the newer UAC conference. AP is 5-0 while UCA is 4-1 in the conference standings. I’m unsure if the loser here can hang on and get an at-large. The UAC doesn’t have a lot of top-tier teams. I see UCA lost a game to Tarleton who is 8-3 this season but I believe ineligible for the post-season.
