One-Bid League

['68griz]

I think conference champs and NCAA bids should be decided by pre-season polls. That might help some of you from being so upset when a team other than the conference champ wins a conference tourney. Or, maybe the ncaa champ should be the team with the best record or team at the top of the end of season poll. Why bother to settle things on a court or at a tourney at the end of the season? Conference champs and "best" teams need to be "protected".

I agree with what you said rather sarcastically. IMO, the only reason conference tourneys are played is for lots of people not related to the conference (hotels, restaurants, airlines, host arenas, etc.) to make lots of money. Why not go with the regular season record???

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well dang! I had some hope, right up until the last 47-sec, that I could again say, "Another one bites the dust." At that point, the SC State Bulldogs (9-seed in the MEAC) was tied, 73-73, with the 1-seed, Norfolk State. But Norfolk scored 5 unanswered points to win. Nothing against the Spartans, but we love upsets when it doesn't involve "our" team(s).

One more chance to have a 1-seed knocked off: The championship game in the Patriot features the 1-seed and 2-seed. Right now Colgate (#1) leads Bucknell at the half, 43-30. But there's hope ... the announcers claim that Bucknell is a strong second-half team. FYI: Games is being shown on CBSSN, DirecTV channel 221.

 

[IdaGriz01]

This was a good day for the 1-seeds (including the Griz). Half of the 20 remaining were in action -- four of them from one-bid conferences. All of them won, although Old Dominion just squeaked it out by 1 point. But they’re still “at risk” because none of those wins were for the championship.

Several 1-seeds are in action tomorrow (including the Griz, of course). LSU gets Florida, only an 8-seed but they look hot right now. Norfolk State (MEAC) barely survived against the 9-seed and plays the 4-seed next, so that looks ripe for an upset. The Southland has the same deal, with 1-seed Sam Houston State playing 4-seed New Orleans, which looked pretty good in its win.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Anybody else notice that the kitties gave EWU hell before they finally lost?

 

[IdaGriz01]

And another one bites the dust!

Atlantic-10: 8-seed Rhode Island beats 1-seed VCU, 75-70. I had VCU as "Probable" for a bid, but getting bumped in their first tournament game -- by the 8-seed -- drops them back to only a "Maybe." Also, their top big man went out during the game. There's a chance he could be back, but if not, the committee might well just leave it with the automatic NIT slot.

 

[grizindabox]

And another one bites the dust!

Atlantic-10: 8-seed Rhode Island beats 1-seed VCU, 75-70. I had VCU as "Probable" for a bid, but getting bumped in their first tournament game -- by the 8-seed -- drops them back to only a "Maybe." Also, their top big man went out during the game. There's a chance he could be back, but if not, the committee might well just leave it with the automatic NIT slot.

I think VCU is a solid.

 

[IdaGriz01]

And another one bites the dust!

Atlantic-10: 8-seed Rhode Island beats 1-seed VCU, 75-70. I had VCU as "Probable" for a bid, but getting bumped in their first tournament game -- by the 8-seed -- drops them back to only a "Maybe." Also, their top big man went out during the game. There's a chance he could be back, but if not, the committee might well just leave it with the automatic NIT slot.

I think VCU is a solid.

Those 25 D-I wins look damn good, don't they? Now that I look at their numbers again (NET rank 31), I'd say the Probable is still good.

FYI: In my scheme, "Probables" always get bids, barring something really weird happening. In the past, good teams missed bids when their star player went down late. That's been even more true in terms of Big Dance seeds. I recall 2- or 3-seeds dropping to 8-10 when they lost a key player. He was clearly in great pain, and word is ... check that, here's a late press release:
https://thespun.com/college-hoops/vcu-star-suffers-scary-knee-injury-in-conference-tournament
So, if he can come back, VCU will almost certainly get an at-large bid ... and he'll likely have most of a week to be ready to play.

Edit: Actually, the Atlantic-10 does not fit this topic anyway ... they've been a two or three bid conference since forever.

 

[dbackjon]

Belmont is in Lunardi's bracket now - with some bubble losses, they could make the OVC a two bid league.

 

[zootownrox]

Thanks for tracking all this IdaGriz01. The silver lining for Griz fans is that the more top seeded teams from one-bid leagues go down the better the potential seed for the Griz could be!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Belmont is in Lunardi's bracket now - with some bubble losses, they could make the OVC a two bid league.

Not seeing it. As of now, the OVC is in the bottom half in conference strength (#20 of 32). In my experience (going back over 15 years), a team in such a weak conference must win about 90% of its games to even be in consideration for an at-large bid. Belmont is close, but does not quite make that figure. Their NET (46) is decent, but their SOS (#198) is crap. I think this is a case where the committee says, "Enjoy the NIT, fellas."

FYI:
According to an article by someone who has kept track, Lunardi has only "nailed" 52% of his seeds since the field went to 68 teams in 2011. But when you cut him a little slack (i.e., getting the seed within ±1), that number goes way up. So I will totally concede the seed prediction to Joe. Joe, of course gets paid for his guesses and has all kinds of information available to him.
Still, in terms of predicting who will get bids, I will concede nothing. I looked back over his years and ... sorry Joe, you're good, but it's not rocket science. Since the field expanded in 2011, Joe has missed 9 bid selections ... I have missed 10. In the five year before that, Joe predicted 98.2% of the teams ... I got 97.2%. Considering the difference in time spent and information available, that's not much of a premium.

 

[dbackjon]

With Rhode Island beating VCU, and stealing a bid for the eventual A-10 champ, Belmont is first out now.

 

[dbackjon]

I would put Belmont in over TCU.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I would put Belmont in over TCU.

Nope, although I'd love to see it happen.

Some of the two team's numbers are very close: NET rank 45 vs 47 and RPI 41 vs 46 for Belmont vs TCU. But Belmont's SOS is 197, while TCU sits at 26. The NET and RPI are basically the same (well within normal variation), but the difference in SOS is just ridiculous.

 

[dbackjon]

I would put Belmont in over TCU.

Nope, although I'd love to see it happen.

Some of the two team's numbers are very close: NET rank 45 vs 47 and RPI 41 vs 46 for Belmont vs TCU. But Belmont's SOS is 197, while TCU sits at 26. The NET and RPI are basically the same (well within normal variation), but the difference in SOS is just ridiculous.

I would point to the fact that TCU lost to Lipscomb, while Belmont beat them twice

 

[AZGrizFan]

I would put Belmont in over TCU.

Nope, although I'd love to see it happen.

Some of the two team's numbers are very close: NET rank 45 vs 47 and RPI 41 vs 46 for Belmont vs TCU. But Belmont's SOS is 197, while TCU sits at 26. The NET and RPI are basically the same (well within normal variation), but the difference in SOS is just ridiculous.

I would point to the fact that TCU lost to Lipscomb, while Belmont beat them twice

You could make that argument for a ton of teams.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I would put Belmont in over TCU.

Nope, although I'd love to see it happen.

Some of the two team's numbers are very close: NET rank 45 vs 47 and RPI 41 vs 46 for Belmont vs TCU. But Belmont's SOS is 197, while TCU sits at 26. The NET and RPI are basically the same (well within normal variation), but the difference in SOS is just ridiculous.

I would point to the fact that TCU lost to Lipscomb, while Belmont beat them twice

You could make that argument for a ton of teams.

Yep. That's why I (mostly) go with the overall numbers. Belmont just did not play a monster schedule, while TCU did.

Now I know (all too well) that teams like Belmont can hardly ever put together a challenging OOC schedule. And when they manage a few, they're always on the road. but "it is what it is."