It maybe the last time we’ll see this group of seniors suit up in Washington Grizzly Stadium as the Griz host UNC on senior day. This game is another must win for Montana if they want to make the playoffs and I’m sure that many of them are itching for revenge from last year’s embarrassing 25-28 loss to UNC in Greeley. The weather outlook is improving (mid 40’s partially sunny), so hopefully the roads will be better and Griz Nation can pack Wa Griz and send our seniors off in style with the strong hopes that we can see them maybe a time or two more come the playoffs. While UNC has just 2 wins and neither are very impressive, they have been playing teams close, even some top tier Big Sky teams. This is a vital game that cannot be overlooked.
Northern Colorado Bears 2-6
41-14 win vs College of Idaho: I had to look this school up, if you shop at Albertsons you have a connection to this college as the founder of the grocery chain graduated here, in fact it was called the Albertson College of Idaho from 1991 – 2007. But was reverted to College of Idaho due to upset alumni and supporters and striking an agreement with the Albertsons family trust. Why give you all this info? Because the stats from UNC beating an NAIA football team is generally pointless. Probably the only thing of real note is that CI did rush for 215 yards in the game and averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
Cancelled game @ Florida: UNC was going to probably get stomped but get a nice check from the game, but Hurricane Irma had different ideas.
21-41 loss @ Colorado: UNC was actually in this game for a good portion of it. They saw a 7-0 lead turn into a 28-7 deficit, but clawed back to get the score to 28-21 with about 12:00 left in the 3rd, however CU then buckled down, scoring the final 17 points of the game. UNC forced 3 turnovers in the game but had just 275 yards of total offense, while CU had about 550.
43-42 win vs Idaho State: I count 6 lead changes in the game from the box score. ISU and UNC duked it out trading scores, tying the game, and so on through the first half. UNC held a 20-17 lead at the half and then outscored ISU 21-7 into the 3rd to build a 40-24 lead. However right at that point UNC totally lost all the steam from their offense and the ISU defense buckled down. UNC’s next 4 possessions had 3 “three and outs” and one ended in 3 plays on a lost fumble. Meanwhile ISU scored 18 consecutive points (failed 2 point, blocked PAT, missed PAT) to grab a 42-40 lead and there was still 7:00 left in the game! ISU stopped UNC’s next possession but then UNC forced a 3 and out, with 2:00 left in the game UNC got the ball on their own 13. UNC completed 6 passes in a row, almost all were in the 7 to 12 yard range, then ran twice and were in fieldgoal range. ISU tried to ice the kicker with two timeouts but UNC nailed the kick from 37 out and won the game. UNC ran for 200 and passed for over 200 in the game… and that’s considering they had very little yards in the 4th quarter entirely save that last drive. Meanwhile ISU had quite the day rushing the ball, 363 yards on the ground.
20-48 loss @ Northern Arizona: UNC dug too much of a hole early in this game, falling down 20-0. They got back to 20-14 but gave up a kickoff return after a TD and NAU outscored them 21-3 the rest of the way, including a pick-6 TD. Case Cookus opted to not get tossed and played the whole game, passing for about 275 and NAU ran for 166. UNC had 3 turnvoers and just 70 rushing yards, they did have 300 passing in the game.
38-48 loss vs North Dakota: UND raced out to a 28-7 lead with about 7:00 in the half. Then things fell apart. UNC kicks a fieldgoal with 5:00 left til the half, then scoops and scores a TD on a fumble with 3:00 til the half, THEN scores a TD a few players after recovering ANOTHER fumble with 2:00 left to go before halftime. It’s suddenly 28-24 UND. To open the 2nd half UNC scores again to actually take the lead, 31-28. UND then ties it again at 31 and then forces a punt and scores again to go up 38-31. UNC answers with a TD and it’s tied again at 38 and it’s not even the 4th quarter yet. UND however buckled down on defense and slowed the game down in the 4th, and scored the final 10 points of the game to win it going away. UNC had 3 possessions in the 4th, two were three and outs and the 3rd ended with a pick. UNC apparently didn’t want to run much… 18 yards on 20 attempts. 331 passing. Meanwhile UND’s ground game rolled up 314 and they passed for about 250 as well. 5 total turnovers in this game (2 for UNC and 3 for UND).
24-27 loss vs Montana State: A lot of us watched this game, UNC started hot, going up 21-7, holding MSU’s offense to 1 TD, 1 pick, and 5 punts in the first half. The 2nd half though UNC went to the most extreme “play not to lose” defense I’ve ever seen… and big shock… they lost. MSU came back from being down 14 points to taking a 24-21 lead midway through the 4th. UNC then tied it with a fieldgoal, got the ball back and with a chance to win just missed a wheel-route TD pass, and then on 4th botched a fieldgoal attempt. MSU with renewed life went down the field and kicked the game winner as the clock expired. MSU doubled up UNC in yardage, 520 to 260.
14-27 loss vs Southern Utah: Conference leader SUU did what they do best, gradually pull away from their opponent in a slow, but steady march. SUU lead the whole way and had just over 200 rushing and just under 300 passing. While UNC had only 40 yards on the ground but almost 400 passing. UNC had essentially 5 turnovers, 2 lost fumbles and 3 turnovers on downs. Those 3 turnovers on downs didn’t lead to any points but ended drives on the SUU 35, the SUU 14, and at midfield.
21-50 loss vs Sacramento State: The score suggests a blowout but Sac lead just 22-21 until 4:00 left in the 3rd quarter. Then Sac scored 4 unanswered TDs, including a pick-6 to rapidly put this game to bed. Sac ran for 333 yards and passed for just 140 while UNC had 220 passing and 120 rushing. UNC lost 3 more turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble), plus they gave up a safety and had another turnover on downs.
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General Stats –
Passing yards per game Montana (309 for UM vs 288 for UNC)
Rushing yards per game Montana (146 rush ypg vs 90 rush ypg)
Total offense Montana (455 for the Griz vs 378 for UNC)
Passing yards allowed per game UNC (238 ypg allowed vs 275 ypg allowed)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (153 ypg allowed vs 263 ypg allowed)
Total defense Montana (428 ypg allowed vs 501 ypg allowed)
5 for Montana and 1 for Northern Colorado
Offense points scored Montana (35.3 vs 27.8)
Defense points allowed Montana (30.4 vs 37.1)
Turnover margin UNC – UNC is +2 while UM is -6
Fieldgoal % Montana – .82 for Montana / .75 for UNC
Punt Returns Montana (9.3 YPR vs 5.7 YPR)
Kick Returns Montana (17.3 for UM vs 16.9 for UNC)
T.O.P. Montana (27:31 for UM vs 26:39 for UNC)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) UNC (UM 59% / UNC 60% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (scores 68% while UNC scores 63%)
3rd down offense Montana (converts 42% of the time and 32% for UNC)
3rd down defense Montana (UM 38% / UNC 44%)
Montana adds 9 while UNC adds 2, total score is Montana 14 – UNC 3.
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Players to Watch:
#81 Alex Wesley, WR – It’s a little rare I list the top guy to watch as a WR, but Wesley deserves to be the main dude to keep an eye on this weekend. His 850 receiving yards puts him 4th best in the Big Sky, behind just NAU’s Marks, ISU’s, Gueller, and UCD’s Doss. He’s got 4 TDs and accounts for about 30% of the passing game at UNC
#8 Connor Regan, QB – A tall 6-3, 205 pound QB. Regan has taken over for the injured Jacob Knipp. In his 3 games since being the sole starter he’s averaging 274 yards per game and has thrown 4 TDs to 3 INTs. On the season he’s got 950 passing yards, 5 TDs, and 3 picks. He’s got a few rushing attempts and 45 rushing yards before you back out yards lost for sacks.
#27 Trae Reik, RB – We’ve seen this guy before I believe, the 5-11, 200 pound junior is UNC’s leading rusher, he’s got 518 yards rushing and 6 rushing TDs, his 126 carries tops the 2nd leading rusher by 85 touches. He’s also got 110 receiving yards.
#11 Hakeen Deggs, WR – A small 5-7, 157 pound WR, Deggs is 3rd best on the team in yards and 2nd best in receptions. He’s got 350 receiving and 1 TD this season. He’s also their main kick returner with a long of 56 but an overall poor average of 16.6.
#47 Theron Verna, TE – 3 weeks in a row that the Grizzly defense is facing a good receiving TE. Verna has 356 receiving yards and 4 TDs.
#59 Morris Keifer, DE – The Grizzlies haven’t seen a dominant single pass rusher for a bit, they’ll get a dose of it with Morris though. He’s a 6-4, 250 D-end with 7 sacks, 9 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery this season.
#3 Stone Kane, S – A 5-11 safety Stone is 2nd best on the team in tackles with 74, he’s also got a team high 2 interceptions this season and is tied for 2nd best with 7 passes defended too. He’s recovered a fumble as well.
#2 Isaiah Swopes, CB – Swopes had stats that suggest he’s possibly the #1 corner on the team. He’s got 8 pass breakups, 2 picks, 39 tackles, and even a sack.
#44 Henry Stelzner, LB – Stelzner leads the team in tackles with 75, he’s got just 1 sack and 4 TFLS, plus a fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. A big day for the Grizzly O-line. UNC’s stats suggest they’re very weak against running teams but ok-ish against passing teams. For a Griz win, regardless the QB, a consistent and powerful running game will go a long ways. Additionally keeping #59 from pressuring the QBs will really help too. This will be a great test to see how well this OL has come through the season, if they can put together a dominant run-block performance and keep our QBs clean, the Griz should roll.
2. Red Zone success. Until very recently the Griz were money in the RZ, then suddenly some costly turnovers and missed kicks started to spring up. I was surprised to see how close UNC and UM is when it comes to RZ performance. For the Griz, coming away with points (especially TDs) will be big.
3. Contain Wesley and attack the QB. I think the gameplan we saw against NAU defensively, to pressure the QB and put extra coverage on their stud pass catcher while going single coverage the rest of the field would be our best bet.
4. Get back to being positive in turnovers. The Grizzlies turnover margin keeps sinking, and while once again that’s not indicative of success considering UNC is +2, getting a few more than what you give up will help.
5. Don’t get complacent. It’s probably easy to look ahead to a huge MSU game and you’ve got all of Griz nation talking about where/if the Griz would be in the playoffs if they go 8-3. First off they have to beat the Bears. Staying focused, playing hard, and executing the game plan for this weekends game has to be front and center.
6. I’m thinking 40+ rushing attempts. If Simis is our QB again then that’ll probably be an easy number to hit. Slow the game down a bit, control the clock, grind them out.
7. Take some 4th down risks, if needed. UNC’s defense has been unable to stop 4th downs on 16 of 20 attempts. Not sure the context but it would seem if we’re especially running with Simis and have some 4th and 3 or less… go for it, within reason of course.
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With the unknown situation at QB it’s got some Griz fans wondering if we’ll see the offense for the NAU game… or the offense we saw the weeks before. And while we’ve all got to wait and see I’d offer up that UNC’s pass defense isn’t the worst, add in a solid pass rush, it could rattle a freshly returned Gresch Jensen (if he’s back). Add in that we may be resting Jeremy Calhoun too, the offense could find another slower start.
I’m thinking there’ll be some fog to come out of following the big NAU win and the Griz start slow but get it rolling as the game goes on, and the defense has another good day. Griz should win this one as they pull away in the 2nd half, 31-10.
GO GRIZ!!
Northern Colorado Bears 2-6
41-14 win vs College of Idaho: I had to look this school up, if you shop at Albertsons you have a connection to this college as the founder of the grocery chain graduated here, in fact it was called the Albertson College of Idaho from 1991 – 2007. But was reverted to College of Idaho due to upset alumni and supporters and striking an agreement with the Albertsons family trust. Why give you all this info? Because the stats from UNC beating an NAIA football team is generally pointless. Probably the only thing of real note is that CI did rush for 215 yards in the game and averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
Cancelled game @ Florida: UNC was going to probably get stomped but get a nice check from the game, but Hurricane Irma had different ideas.
21-41 loss @ Colorado: UNC was actually in this game for a good portion of it. They saw a 7-0 lead turn into a 28-7 deficit, but clawed back to get the score to 28-21 with about 12:00 left in the 3rd, however CU then buckled down, scoring the final 17 points of the game. UNC forced 3 turnovers in the game but had just 275 yards of total offense, while CU had about 550.
43-42 win vs Idaho State: I count 6 lead changes in the game from the box score. ISU and UNC duked it out trading scores, tying the game, and so on through the first half. UNC held a 20-17 lead at the half and then outscored ISU 21-7 into the 3rd to build a 40-24 lead. However right at that point UNC totally lost all the steam from their offense and the ISU defense buckled down. UNC’s next 4 possessions had 3 “three and outs” and one ended in 3 plays on a lost fumble. Meanwhile ISU scored 18 consecutive points (failed 2 point, blocked PAT, missed PAT) to grab a 42-40 lead and there was still 7:00 left in the game! ISU stopped UNC’s next possession but then UNC forced a 3 and out, with 2:00 left in the game UNC got the ball on their own 13. UNC completed 6 passes in a row, almost all were in the 7 to 12 yard range, then ran twice and were in fieldgoal range. ISU tried to ice the kicker with two timeouts but UNC nailed the kick from 37 out and won the game. UNC ran for 200 and passed for over 200 in the game… and that’s considering they had very little yards in the 4th quarter entirely save that last drive. Meanwhile ISU had quite the day rushing the ball, 363 yards on the ground.
20-48 loss @ Northern Arizona: UNC dug too much of a hole early in this game, falling down 20-0. They got back to 20-14 but gave up a kickoff return after a TD and NAU outscored them 21-3 the rest of the way, including a pick-6 TD. Case Cookus opted to not get tossed and played the whole game, passing for about 275 and NAU ran for 166. UNC had 3 turnvoers and just 70 rushing yards, they did have 300 passing in the game.
38-48 loss vs North Dakota: UND raced out to a 28-7 lead with about 7:00 in the half. Then things fell apart. UNC kicks a fieldgoal with 5:00 left til the half, then scoops and scores a TD on a fumble with 3:00 til the half, THEN scores a TD a few players after recovering ANOTHER fumble with 2:00 left to go before halftime. It’s suddenly 28-24 UND. To open the 2nd half UNC scores again to actually take the lead, 31-28. UND then ties it again at 31 and then forces a punt and scores again to go up 38-31. UNC answers with a TD and it’s tied again at 38 and it’s not even the 4th quarter yet. UND however buckled down on defense and slowed the game down in the 4th, and scored the final 10 points of the game to win it going away. UNC had 3 possessions in the 4th, two were three and outs and the 3rd ended with a pick. UNC apparently didn’t want to run much… 18 yards on 20 attempts. 331 passing. Meanwhile UND’s ground game rolled up 314 and they passed for about 250 as well. 5 total turnovers in this game (2 for UNC and 3 for UND).
24-27 loss vs Montana State: A lot of us watched this game, UNC started hot, going up 21-7, holding MSU’s offense to 1 TD, 1 pick, and 5 punts in the first half. The 2nd half though UNC went to the most extreme “play not to lose” defense I’ve ever seen… and big shock… they lost. MSU came back from being down 14 points to taking a 24-21 lead midway through the 4th. UNC then tied it with a fieldgoal, got the ball back and with a chance to win just missed a wheel-route TD pass, and then on 4th botched a fieldgoal attempt. MSU with renewed life went down the field and kicked the game winner as the clock expired. MSU doubled up UNC in yardage, 520 to 260.
14-27 loss vs Southern Utah: Conference leader SUU did what they do best, gradually pull away from their opponent in a slow, but steady march. SUU lead the whole way and had just over 200 rushing and just under 300 passing. While UNC had only 40 yards on the ground but almost 400 passing. UNC had essentially 5 turnovers, 2 lost fumbles and 3 turnovers on downs. Those 3 turnovers on downs didn’t lead to any points but ended drives on the SUU 35, the SUU 14, and at midfield.
21-50 loss vs Sacramento State: The score suggests a blowout but Sac lead just 22-21 until 4:00 left in the 3rd quarter. Then Sac scored 4 unanswered TDs, including a pick-6 to rapidly put this game to bed. Sac ran for 333 yards and passed for just 140 while UNC had 220 passing and 120 rushing. UNC lost 3 more turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble), plus they gave up a safety and had another turnover on downs.
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General Stats –
Passing yards per game Montana (309 for UM vs 288 for UNC)
Rushing yards per game Montana (146 rush ypg vs 90 rush ypg)
Total offense Montana (455 for the Griz vs 378 for UNC)
Passing yards allowed per game UNC (238 ypg allowed vs 275 ypg allowed)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (153 ypg allowed vs 263 ypg allowed)
Total defense Montana (428 ypg allowed vs 501 ypg allowed)
5 for Montana and 1 for Northern Colorado
Offense points scored Montana (35.3 vs 27.8)
Defense points allowed Montana (30.4 vs 37.1)
Turnover margin UNC – UNC is +2 while UM is -6
Fieldgoal % Montana – .82 for Montana / .75 for UNC
Punt Returns Montana (9.3 YPR vs 5.7 YPR)
Kick Returns Montana (17.3 for UM vs 16.9 for UNC)
T.O.P. Montana (27:31 for UM vs 26:39 for UNC)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) UNC (UM 59% / UNC 60% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (scores 68% while UNC scores 63%)
3rd down offense Montana (converts 42% of the time and 32% for UNC)
3rd down defense Montana (UM 38% / UNC 44%)
Montana adds 9 while UNC adds 2, total score is Montana 14 – UNC 3.
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Players to Watch:
#81 Alex Wesley, WR – It’s a little rare I list the top guy to watch as a WR, but Wesley deserves to be the main dude to keep an eye on this weekend. His 850 receiving yards puts him 4th best in the Big Sky, behind just NAU’s Marks, ISU’s, Gueller, and UCD’s Doss. He’s got 4 TDs and accounts for about 30% of the passing game at UNC
#8 Connor Regan, QB – A tall 6-3, 205 pound QB. Regan has taken over for the injured Jacob Knipp. In his 3 games since being the sole starter he’s averaging 274 yards per game and has thrown 4 TDs to 3 INTs. On the season he’s got 950 passing yards, 5 TDs, and 3 picks. He’s got a few rushing attempts and 45 rushing yards before you back out yards lost for sacks.
#27 Trae Reik, RB – We’ve seen this guy before I believe, the 5-11, 200 pound junior is UNC’s leading rusher, he’s got 518 yards rushing and 6 rushing TDs, his 126 carries tops the 2nd leading rusher by 85 touches. He’s also got 110 receiving yards.
#11 Hakeen Deggs, WR – A small 5-7, 157 pound WR, Deggs is 3rd best on the team in yards and 2nd best in receptions. He’s got 350 receiving and 1 TD this season. He’s also their main kick returner with a long of 56 but an overall poor average of 16.6.
#47 Theron Verna, TE – 3 weeks in a row that the Grizzly defense is facing a good receiving TE. Verna has 356 receiving yards and 4 TDs.
#59 Morris Keifer, DE – The Grizzlies haven’t seen a dominant single pass rusher for a bit, they’ll get a dose of it with Morris though. He’s a 6-4, 250 D-end with 7 sacks, 9 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery this season.
#3 Stone Kane, S – A 5-11 safety Stone is 2nd best on the team in tackles with 74, he’s also got a team high 2 interceptions this season and is tied for 2nd best with 7 passes defended too. He’s recovered a fumble as well.
#2 Isaiah Swopes, CB – Swopes had stats that suggest he’s possibly the #1 corner on the team. He’s got 8 pass breakups, 2 picks, 39 tackles, and even a sack.
#44 Henry Stelzner, LB – Stelzner leads the team in tackles with 75, he’s got just 1 sack and 4 TFLS, plus a fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. A big day for the Grizzly O-line. UNC’s stats suggest they’re very weak against running teams but ok-ish against passing teams. For a Griz win, regardless the QB, a consistent and powerful running game will go a long ways. Additionally keeping #59 from pressuring the QBs will really help too. This will be a great test to see how well this OL has come through the season, if they can put together a dominant run-block performance and keep our QBs clean, the Griz should roll.
2. Red Zone success. Until very recently the Griz were money in the RZ, then suddenly some costly turnovers and missed kicks started to spring up. I was surprised to see how close UNC and UM is when it comes to RZ performance. For the Griz, coming away with points (especially TDs) will be big.
3. Contain Wesley and attack the QB. I think the gameplan we saw against NAU defensively, to pressure the QB and put extra coverage on their stud pass catcher while going single coverage the rest of the field would be our best bet.
4. Get back to being positive in turnovers. The Grizzlies turnover margin keeps sinking, and while once again that’s not indicative of success considering UNC is +2, getting a few more than what you give up will help.
5. Don’t get complacent. It’s probably easy to look ahead to a huge MSU game and you’ve got all of Griz nation talking about where/if the Griz would be in the playoffs if they go 8-3. First off they have to beat the Bears. Staying focused, playing hard, and executing the game plan for this weekends game has to be front and center.
6. I’m thinking 40+ rushing attempts. If Simis is our QB again then that’ll probably be an easy number to hit. Slow the game down a bit, control the clock, grind them out.
7. Take some 4th down risks, if needed. UNC’s defense has been unable to stop 4th downs on 16 of 20 attempts. Not sure the context but it would seem if we’re especially running with Simis and have some 4th and 3 or less… go for it, within reason of course.
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With the unknown situation at QB it’s got some Griz fans wondering if we’ll see the offense for the NAU game… or the offense we saw the weeks before. And while we’ve all got to wait and see I’d offer up that UNC’s pass defense isn’t the worst, add in a solid pass rush, it could rattle a freshly returned Gresch Jensen (if he’s back). Add in that we may be resting Jeremy Calhoun too, the offense could find another slower start.
I’m thinking there’ll be some fog to come out of following the big NAU win and the Griz start slow but get it rolling as the game goes on, and the defense has another good day. Griz should win this one as they pull away in the 2nd half, 31-10.
GO GRIZ!!
