Huge road game for the Griz here. The road has not been kind to the Grizzlies this season, they’re currently 1-3 on the road and headed to play a veteran UNC team with a dangerous offense. Just look at some of the concerns in this matchup. When at home UNC is 3-1 while on the road the Griz are 1-3. At home UNC is scoring an average of 29.25 points and allowing an average of 21.75 points. While on the road the Griz are scoring an average of 27.75 and allowing an average of 34 points per game. The trends suggest that Montana is in for a hell of a game.
Northern Colorado Bears 5-4
56-27 win vs Rocky Mountain College – It was 42-0 at the half and RMC added late points. UNC had their ground game going, 275 almost and passed for just 185. Meanwhile due to being way behind RMC had to pass it a ton, and with their 2nd half surge they put up 350 in the air.
55-52 win vs Abilene Christian – ACU is just 2-8 now on the season, in the Southland Conference with SFA, SHSU, and the likes. This was an odd box score. UNC had a 28-7 lead, but let ACU score 21 unanswered to tie it (in the 2nd qtr) but after that UNC went on a 20-7 run into the 3rd to get a 48-35 lead. However ACU came back and scored the next 17 points to get a 52-48 lead into the 4th quarter. UNC answered and scored a TD to get it to 55-52 with about 10:00 left in the game. From there ACU had just two more possessions, one ended in a punt, and their last drive died on the UNC 45 as they attempted a 4th and 2 conversion and were stuffed. UNC had 690 yards (425 passing / 265 rushing) while ACU had 250 rushing and 325 passing. UNC put the ball on the turf 4 times, but only lost 1 fumble.
21-47 loss to Colorado State – CSU held a 38-0 halftime lead, they let UNC chip away in the 2nd but this game was never close. Both teams passed for 330, however CSU ran for 250 as well while UNC had just 113 on the ground. UNC’s 1st half was rough, an opening long drive ended in a pick, then three “3 and outs” in a row, a turnover on downs, and another 3 and out. In the 2nd half UNC had just 4 total possessions, 3 of which ended with TDs.
21-18 win vs NAU – A big win for UNC. NAU was just breaking in new starter Blake Kemp, who did well, but an early UNC scoring burst help them win the game. UNC held a 21-10 halftime lead and forced NAU to three 3rd quarter punts, then two lost fumbles. By the time NAU scored to make it 21-18 there was just a few minutes left in the game. NAU ran for 200 and passed for 300 but their 3 lost fumbles were killer one was at mid-field and the other two were INSIDE the UNC 5 yard line.
31-49 loss @ EWU – UNC was very competitive with EWU until the Eags pulled away late. UNC had the lead change their way 3 times, the latest was a 24-21 lead in the 3rd quarter. But true to EWU form the Eags lit it up late. They opened up to an 11 point lead in the 3rd, saw UNC get within 4 in the start of the 4th, and then EWU tacked on 14 more in the 4th and kept UNC from scoring beyond that. EWU put up almost 700 yards of offense, 225 rushing and 450 passing. While UNC ran for 180 and passed for 300. EWU wrecked UNC on 3rd down, just 3-11 on conversions.
21-34 loss vs UC Davis – This was a surprising loss for UNC, they lost the lead with 2:00 left in the 1st quarter, going down 10-7, and never got it back. Davis just gradually out-paced them. UCD ran for 155 and passed for 195 while UNC ran for 100 and passed for 106. There was just 1 total turnover, I don’t see any of their regular players that missed the game, and UCD didn’t control the clock too much. A real flat game for UNC, who had 12 penalties for 126 total yards, meaning they gave up more in penalty yards than their individual rushing or passing offenses amassed for them.
27-19 win vs Sac State – A shaky win but back on track for UNC against 1-win Sac State. Sac had a 10-7 halftime lead but UNC scored 20 2nd half points to win it. UNC ran for 230 and passed for 200 but tossed 2 picks and lost 2 fumbles. Sac was 6 for 22 on 3rd down… wow.
56-49 win @ PSU – What a wild one, an OT win for the Bears. PSU took a few good leads in the game but UNC kept fighting back. At the start of the 2nd half it went to 21-21 and from there it was one team would score then the other would answer – all the way into OT. Once in OT PSU was flagged for pass interference and gave up a score on the next play. The UNC defense bent – letting PSU get to the 8 yard line, but stopping a 4th and goal pass to seal the win. PSU ran for 370 and passed for 180, while UNC ran for 250 and passed for 320. UNC had just 3 punts, PSU had just 1.
13-23 loss vs UND – To keep their post-season hopes alive UNC had to pull off the win against the 1st place team in the Big Sky, but they didn’t get it done. UNC opened up a 7-0 lead but then UND scored all of their 23 points before UNC found the endzone again, and that was with just 2:05 left in the game. The UND defense held UNC to just 6 yards rushing (and they only had 2 sacks totaling 15 yards). And they allowed about 270 passing to UNC. Meanwhile UND on offense ran for almost 300 and passed for just 90 yards. UND went Bobby-ball on the Bears, almost 35:00 TOP.
General Stats
Major categories
Pass YPG: Montana 358 ypg - UNC 258 ypg
Rush YPG: Montana 151 ypg - UNC 170 ypg
Total YPG: Montana 509 ypg - UNC 428 ypg
Offense PPG: Montana 43.6 ppg - UNC 33.4 ppg
Defense PPG: Montana 27.2 ppg - UNC 35.3 ppg
Turnover Margin: Montana +/- 0 - UNC -2
Additional categories
TOP: Montana 31:10 - UNC 27:09
Offense Red Zone TD%: Montana 73% - UNC 73% Push
Defense Red Zone TD%: Montana 67% - UNC 60%
Offense 3rd down %: Montana 46% - UNC 39%
Defense 3rd down %: Montana 27% - UNC 43%
Total Plays per game: Montana 81 - UNC 67
Total statistical advantage Montana 9 to UNC 2 with 1 push
Players to Watch
#8 Kyle Sloter, QB – Sloter is a tall 6-4 QB that transferred in from Southern Miss. He’s averaging about 240 passing per game and completing passes at nearly a 63% ratio. He’s got 21 TDs and 9 INTs. He’s also a bit of a rusher, much like Gueller last week, he’s got 3 rushing TDs this season.
#27 Trae Riek, RB – not sure if Riek will be playing, he’s missed two games with a bad shoulder. He’s been a difference maker in their running game. Averaging nearly 100 yards per game on the ground and another 30 per game receiving, with 4 total TDs. If 27 is healthy and playing on Saturday the UNC offense will be much more dynamic. If Riek doesn’t go look for #23 Brandon Cartagena to start in his place. While Cartagena isn’t averaging nearly as much per game (just about 50 yards) he does have 5 rushing TDs.
#87 Stephen Miller, WR – Miller is UNC’s big-time guy. He’s got 830 yards and 3 TDs this season, that’s almost 93 yards per game. With what the Grizzly pass defense has shown recently he’s got to be looking forward to testing them out.
#11 Hakeem Deggs, WR – Deggs is the do-it-all guy on the team. He leads the team in TD receptions with 6, he’s 3rd best in receiving yards with 263 but 2nd best in receptions. He’s also their kick returner, averaging about 20 yards per return.
#81 Alex Wesley, WR – Wesley has the 2nd most amount of yards with 356 and the 2nd most amount of TD receptions with 5.
#15 Kyle Newsom, LB – Newsom is their Josh Buss, of sorts. He leads the team in stops with 86, he’s 2nd on the team in TFLS with 5 and he’s got 2.5 sacks plus 1 fumble recovery.
#4 Thomas Singleton, DB – Singleton is 2nd on the team in tackles with 65, he’s got 2 sacks, 1 INT, and two forced fumbles.
#9 Mikhail Duboise, DE – A speedy rusher he leads the team with 7.5 TFLs and 2 forced fumbles. He’s got 2 sacks as well.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
- Shore up the pass defense. The last three games we’ve seen teams pass for 260, 380, and 360. The Grizzly pass defense needs to tighten that up against another good group of playmakers and a bit of a gunslinger QB in Sloter. In these three games we’ve seen teams go to more maximum protection for the QB and then let the 2 or 3 WRs make a play. The Griz need to counter that this weekend.
- +2 or better in turnovers. UNC has a very odd stat line for turnovers. Their defense has just 2 picks but has forced 9 fumbles this season. On the flip side they’ve only lost 4 fumbles but have thrown 9 picks. We need to see the Griz defense grab a few more picks in this game and the Griz runners need to prevent fumbling – as UNC loves to force them!
- Don’t let a slow start get us down. UNC’s scoring stats show they usually open games pretty well. They out-score their opponents in the 1st quarter, in fact they’re usually the first team to score in most of their games I believe. The Griz can’t let this phase them as UNC shows a steady tendency to give up the lead in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
- Keep UNC out of the redzone. UNC is the better RZ team and it appears they’re not much to try fieldgoals, just 5-7 kicking this season and with 3 of those 5 being scored in pretty close range.
- Keep the 3rd down efficiency rolling. I don’t recall seeing stats from a prior Griz team that was this good with such a wide gap in how their offense performed on 3rd down and how their defense stopped the other team on 3rd.
- Turn early successes into points. The EWU game is a prime example. The Griz mostly dominated the 1st quarter and should’ve had anywhere from a 21-0 or 21-7 or 17-7 type of lead. Instead they had a 7-7 tie at one point. This was a prime example of how they let a team hang around and then steal the momentum quickly. Against UNC if the Griz open with early success and get a double-digit lead they could be less “damaged” by a UNC quick-score.
- Keep the ground game going. No clue if Calhoun in back but against ISU a steady mix of running helped with the passing game too. Also unsure who our QB is but obviously Chalich adds some mobility to it as well.
- Attack UNC’s secondary. UNC’s secondary is almost as bad (statistically) as ISU’s. They’ve allowed a few less TDs but actually allow an even better passing efficiency.
- Bend, don’t break. Maybe the more balanced offense we’ve seen in a while. Prevent the big plays and don’t get fooled too much by an offense that will mix it up.
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The Griz have hopefully re-built their confidence while UNC might be reeling a bit as they saw their hopes for a post season go away with last week’s loss. That doesn’t necessarily mean UNC will roll over here because a win against Montana could give them a little hope on an otherwise failed season. If the Grizzly pass defense can even make modest strides over the last few weeks we should see the Griz pull away against this UNC defense. However, on the road you’ve just got to wonder if we’ll once again see the famed “road Griz” complete with execution errors, turnovers, and mistakes.
I think this young team is turning the corner, this could be a defining game to prove that. It won’t be the prettiest but I’m thinking Griz come home with the win, 31-21.
GO GRIZ!
Northern Colorado Bears 5-4
56-27 win vs Rocky Mountain College – It was 42-0 at the half and RMC added late points. UNC had their ground game going, 275 almost and passed for just 185. Meanwhile due to being way behind RMC had to pass it a ton, and with their 2nd half surge they put up 350 in the air.
55-52 win vs Abilene Christian – ACU is just 2-8 now on the season, in the Southland Conference with SFA, SHSU, and the likes. This was an odd box score. UNC had a 28-7 lead, but let ACU score 21 unanswered to tie it (in the 2nd qtr) but after that UNC went on a 20-7 run into the 3rd to get a 48-35 lead. However ACU came back and scored the next 17 points to get a 52-48 lead into the 4th quarter. UNC answered and scored a TD to get it to 55-52 with about 10:00 left in the game. From there ACU had just two more possessions, one ended in a punt, and their last drive died on the UNC 45 as they attempted a 4th and 2 conversion and were stuffed. UNC had 690 yards (425 passing / 265 rushing) while ACU had 250 rushing and 325 passing. UNC put the ball on the turf 4 times, but only lost 1 fumble.
21-47 loss to Colorado State – CSU held a 38-0 halftime lead, they let UNC chip away in the 2nd but this game was never close. Both teams passed for 330, however CSU ran for 250 as well while UNC had just 113 on the ground. UNC’s 1st half was rough, an opening long drive ended in a pick, then three “3 and outs” in a row, a turnover on downs, and another 3 and out. In the 2nd half UNC had just 4 total possessions, 3 of which ended with TDs.
21-18 win vs NAU – A big win for UNC. NAU was just breaking in new starter Blake Kemp, who did well, but an early UNC scoring burst help them win the game. UNC held a 21-10 halftime lead and forced NAU to three 3rd quarter punts, then two lost fumbles. By the time NAU scored to make it 21-18 there was just a few minutes left in the game. NAU ran for 200 and passed for 300 but their 3 lost fumbles were killer one was at mid-field and the other two were INSIDE the UNC 5 yard line.
31-49 loss @ EWU – UNC was very competitive with EWU until the Eags pulled away late. UNC had the lead change their way 3 times, the latest was a 24-21 lead in the 3rd quarter. But true to EWU form the Eags lit it up late. They opened up to an 11 point lead in the 3rd, saw UNC get within 4 in the start of the 4th, and then EWU tacked on 14 more in the 4th and kept UNC from scoring beyond that. EWU put up almost 700 yards of offense, 225 rushing and 450 passing. While UNC ran for 180 and passed for 300. EWU wrecked UNC on 3rd down, just 3-11 on conversions.
21-34 loss vs UC Davis – This was a surprising loss for UNC, they lost the lead with 2:00 left in the 1st quarter, going down 10-7, and never got it back. Davis just gradually out-paced them. UCD ran for 155 and passed for 195 while UNC ran for 100 and passed for 106. There was just 1 total turnover, I don’t see any of their regular players that missed the game, and UCD didn’t control the clock too much. A real flat game for UNC, who had 12 penalties for 126 total yards, meaning they gave up more in penalty yards than their individual rushing or passing offenses amassed for them.
27-19 win vs Sac State – A shaky win but back on track for UNC against 1-win Sac State. Sac had a 10-7 halftime lead but UNC scored 20 2nd half points to win it. UNC ran for 230 and passed for 200 but tossed 2 picks and lost 2 fumbles. Sac was 6 for 22 on 3rd down… wow.
56-49 win @ PSU – What a wild one, an OT win for the Bears. PSU took a few good leads in the game but UNC kept fighting back. At the start of the 2nd half it went to 21-21 and from there it was one team would score then the other would answer – all the way into OT. Once in OT PSU was flagged for pass interference and gave up a score on the next play. The UNC defense bent – letting PSU get to the 8 yard line, but stopping a 4th and goal pass to seal the win. PSU ran for 370 and passed for 180, while UNC ran for 250 and passed for 320. UNC had just 3 punts, PSU had just 1.
13-23 loss vs UND – To keep their post-season hopes alive UNC had to pull off the win against the 1st place team in the Big Sky, but they didn’t get it done. UNC opened up a 7-0 lead but then UND scored all of their 23 points before UNC found the endzone again, and that was with just 2:05 left in the game. The UND defense held UNC to just 6 yards rushing (and they only had 2 sacks totaling 15 yards). And they allowed about 270 passing to UNC. Meanwhile UND on offense ran for almost 300 and passed for just 90 yards. UND went Bobby-ball on the Bears, almost 35:00 TOP.
General Stats
Major categories
Pass YPG: Montana 358 ypg - UNC 258 ypg
Rush YPG: Montana 151 ypg - UNC 170 ypg
Total YPG: Montana 509 ypg - UNC 428 ypg
Offense PPG: Montana 43.6 ppg - UNC 33.4 ppg
Defense PPG: Montana 27.2 ppg - UNC 35.3 ppg
Turnover Margin: Montana +/- 0 - UNC -2
Additional categories
TOP: Montana 31:10 - UNC 27:09
Offense Red Zone TD%: Montana 73% - UNC 73% Push
Defense Red Zone TD%: Montana 67% - UNC 60%
Offense 3rd down %: Montana 46% - UNC 39%
Defense 3rd down %: Montana 27% - UNC 43%
Total Plays per game: Montana 81 - UNC 67
Total statistical advantage Montana 9 to UNC 2 with 1 push
Players to Watch
#8 Kyle Sloter, QB – Sloter is a tall 6-4 QB that transferred in from Southern Miss. He’s averaging about 240 passing per game and completing passes at nearly a 63% ratio. He’s got 21 TDs and 9 INTs. He’s also a bit of a rusher, much like Gueller last week, he’s got 3 rushing TDs this season.
#27 Trae Riek, RB – not sure if Riek will be playing, he’s missed two games with a bad shoulder. He’s been a difference maker in their running game. Averaging nearly 100 yards per game on the ground and another 30 per game receiving, with 4 total TDs. If 27 is healthy and playing on Saturday the UNC offense will be much more dynamic. If Riek doesn’t go look for #23 Brandon Cartagena to start in his place. While Cartagena isn’t averaging nearly as much per game (just about 50 yards) he does have 5 rushing TDs.
#87 Stephen Miller, WR – Miller is UNC’s big-time guy. He’s got 830 yards and 3 TDs this season, that’s almost 93 yards per game. With what the Grizzly pass defense has shown recently he’s got to be looking forward to testing them out.
#11 Hakeem Deggs, WR – Deggs is the do-it-all guy on the team. He leads the team in TD receptions with 6, he’s 3rd best in receiving yards with 263 but 2nd best in receptions. He’s also their kick returner, averaging about 20 yards per return.
#81 Alex Wesley, WR – Wesley has the 2nd most amount of yards with 356 and the 2nd most amount of TD receptions with 5.
#15 Kyle Newsom, LB – Newsom is their Josh Buss, of sorts. He leads the team in stops with 86, he’s 2nd on the team in TFLS with 5 and he’s got 2.5 sacks plus 1 fumble recovery.
#4 Thomas Singleton, DB – Singleton is 2nd on the team in tackles with 65, he’s got 2 sacks, 1 INT, and two forced fumbles.
#9 Mikhail Duboise, DE – A speedy rusher he leads the team with 7.5 TFLs and 2 forced fumbles. He’s got 2 sacks as well.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
- Shore up the pass defense. The last three games we’ve seen teams pass for 260, 380, and 360. The Grizzly pass defense needs to tighten that up against another good group of playmakers and a bit of a gunslinger QB in Sloter. In these three games we’ve seen teams go to more maximum protection for the QB and then let the 2 or 3 WRs make a play. The Griz need to counter that this weekend.
- +2 or better in turnovers. UNC has a very odd stat line for turnovers. Their defense has just 2 picks but has forced 9 fumbles this season. On the flip side they’ve only lost 4 fumbles but have thrown 9 picks. We need to see the Griz defense grab a few more picks in this game and the Griz runners need to prevent fumbling – as UNC loves to force them!
- Don’t let a slow start get us down. UNC’s scoring stats show they usually open games pretty well. They out-score their opponents in the 1st quarter, in fact they’re usually the first team to score in most of their games I believe. The Griz can’t let this phase them as UNC shows a steady tendency to give up the lead in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
- Keep UNC out of the redzone. UNC is the better RZ team and it appears they’re not much to try fieldgoals, just 5-7 kicking this season and with 3 of those 5 being scored in pretty close range.
- Keep the 3rd down efficiency rolling. I don’t recall seeing stats from a prior Griz team that was this good with such a wide gap in how their offense performed on 3rd down and how their defense stopped the other team on 3rd.
- Turn early successes into points. The EWU game is a prime example. The Griz mostly dominated the 1st quarter and should’ve had anywhere from a 21-0 or 21-7 or 17-7 type of lead. Instead they had a 7-7 tie at one point. This was a prime example of how they let a team hang around and then steal the momentum quickly. Against UNC if the Griz open with early success and get a double-digit lead they could be less “damaged” by a UNC quick-score.
- Keep the ground game going. No clue if Calhoun in back but against ISU a steady mix of running helped with the passing game too. Also unsure who our QB is but obviously Chalich adds some mobility to it as well.
- Attack UNC’s secondary. UNC’s secondary is almost as bad (statistically) as ISU’s. They’ve allowed a few less TDs but actually allow an even better passing efficiency.
- Bend, don’t break. Maybe the more balanced offense we’ve seen in a while. Prevent the big plays and don’t get fooled too much by an offense that will mix it up.
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The Griz have hopefully re-built their confidence while UNC might be reeling a bit as they saw their hopes for a post season go away with last week’s loss. That doesn’t necessarily mean UNC will roll over here because a win against Montana could give them a little hope on an otherwise failed season. If the Grizzly pass defense can even make modest strides over the last few weeks we should see the Griz pull away against this UNC defense. However, on the road you’ve just got to wonder if we’ll once again see the famed “road Griz” complete with execution errors, turnovers, and mistakes.
I think this young team is turning the corner, this could be a defining game to prove that. It won’t be the prettiest but I’m thinking Griz come home with the win, 31-21.
GO GRIZ!
