Conference play is here and the Griz are on the road to open. While Montana has started the season 3-0 a lot of questions are floating around them, from a softer schedule, to a thin D-line, to an offense that at times has really been unable to execute.
In a fascinating opening week there are all sorts of toss-up games on the docket (Cats at Weber, Sac at Idaho, Eastern at Davis, Poly @ Portland, and UNC @ ISU). All of those games I’d venture have a narrow spread and could all be toss-up games. Then there’s the Griz @ NAU. Last I checked Montana is a 3 score favorite. This honestly makes me a little nervous because Montana has had issues in Flagstaff before, add in coming off the Ferris game with under 200 yards of offense.
NAU has undergone a ton of changes, I think they added more freshman and transfers than they have returning players. Their defense has had a pretty heavy overhaul in terms of players and coaches. Their coach could be on the hot seat and they’re hoping this total re-set will get them there. However for the Lumberjacks, this is a new season, everyone is 0-0 in conference, and they do currently post one of the more higher yielding offenses in the conference. Their eyes are set solely on Montana and getting to 1-0 in the Big Syk
NAU Lumberjacks 0-3
3-38 loss @ Arizona: It was just 14-3 at the half, however Arizona would open things up as the game went on. The Wildcats passed for almost 300 and ran for almost 200, looks to me that Arizona never punted once in the game.
22-37 loss @ North Dakota: Another game where it was closer at the half (13-3 UND) and then it opened up. UND stretched a 10 point lead to a 21 and then 28 point lead in the 2nd half. NAU scored 2 TDs in the last 3 minutes of the game to make it look a little closer. NAU had almost 450 of offense, 170 rushing and 275 passing – in fact their yardage total was really close to UND’s. What UND did was hold the ball really well, they had 35 minutes of TOP and finished most drives with TDs. While NAU had a turnover on downs early and lost a fumble. With UND grinding them out they ran out of time to get back into the game – they had just 5 total possessions in the 2nd half.
36-50 loss vs Utah Tech: LOTS of turnovers here, NAU tossed 3 picks, lost 2 fumbles, had a turnover on downs, and missed a field goal. 2 of those NAU picks UTT turned into a defensive score. This game was 37-7 at the half and 50-14 early in the 4th. Utah Tech aired it out – almost 320 passing, while NAU had another day of similar offense splits 280 passing / 160 rushing. NAU’s turnovers totally killed them – because otherwise they were often stopping UTT and forcing fieldgoals. The 2 defensive touchdowns wound up being the difference in the game.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game NAU (150 for GRIZ vs 246 for NAU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (192 for GRIZ vs 136 for NAU)
Total offense NAU (342 for GRIZ vs 382 for NAU)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (225 for GRIZ vs 302 for NAU)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (91 for GRIZ vs 136 for NAU)
Total defense GRIZ (360 for GRIZ vs 438 for NAU)
Grizzly defensive stats give a big help for us, Griz pick up 4 to NAU’s 2
Offense points scored GRIZ (31.6 for GRIZ vs 20.3 for NAU)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (14.3 for GRIZ vs 41.6 for NAU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+3 for GRIZ / -5 for NAU)
Fieldgoal % GRIZ (60% for GRIZ vs 50% for NAU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (18 yards for GRIZ vs 1.5 yards for NAU)
Kick Returns NAU (16.8 yards for GRIZ vs 20.3 yards for NAU)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:05 for GRIZ vs 32:32 for NAU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (26% GRIZ / 69% NAU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (61% GRIZ / 44% NAU)
3rd down offense NAU – (44% for GRIZ / 45.6% for NAU)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (26% allowed for GRIZ vs 50% allowed for NAU)
Griz add a lot here, I noticed NAU has a higher kick return average but I’d venture our one flubbed kick return against FSU is really the factor in Montana’s number there. Griz add 9, NAU adds 2. Total is Griz 13 – NAU 4
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Players to Watch:
#2 Kai Millner, QB: A 6-2, 215 pound transfer from Cal. Kai had a real rough game against Utah Tech but I anticipate we’ll see him as the main signal caller again. I know our coaching staff appreciates his tenacity. He’s got 2 TDs and 2 INTs this season and is averaging about 152 per game. He can run too, 80 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD too.
#5 Devon Starling, RB: A 6-1, 210 transfer from Memphis he’s the main feature back. He’s got 185 rushing and 1 rushing TD. He also has 41 receiving yards this season so far too.
#6 Coleman Owen, WR: NAU does return a lot of their WRs from prior season and Coleman is one of them. He’s 5-11, 175 pounds. He leads the team in yards by a big margin. 261 receiving yards and 1 TD. He has 1 kick return as well. I’ll just go ahead and guess we’re going to see this guy in the slot a lot.
#19 Isiaih Eastman, WR: 2nd on the team in receptions and yards, he’s got 119 yards but no TDs yet this season.
#17 Alex McLaughlin, DB: Listed as a true freshman, the 6-2, 210 pound DB leads the team in tackles so far this season. He has 23 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and 2 pass breakups.
#36 Eloi Kwete, DL: A first team all conference D-lineman, he’s 6-1, 250 pounds. So far this season he’s got just 12 tackles and 0.5 sacks. Last year he had 7 sacks and 11 TFLs, the year before 3 sacks and 9.5 TFLs. He’s the veteran of this defense, has been there since 2019 – recall NAU played in 2020 so he has stats from the “covid year”
#12 Jeff Widener, DB: Name sound familiar? He used to be one of their QBs. Now the 6-2, 210 pound junior is a safety for the team and 4th in stops with 12 and has 1 pass breakup to go with it.
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Keys to a victory
1. The passing game HAS to get going. This simply cannot be said enough. NAU’s defense shows that the Grizzly run and pass game should find lanes to pile up yards. After last week I really do think we need a 225+ passing game here to better establish this offense going forward. Additionally NAU can score quick and in rapid bunches, the Grizzlies may need their pass offense to go score for score at times in this game.
2. Take away the run. While NAU’s best success comes through the air they do want to establish the run and even though they’re 0-3 they’ve shown the know how to do it. They’re going to keep hitting our D-line and linebackers to see how much give we have there. If Montana can take away that ground game it’ll force them into earlier passing situations that haven’t worked out too well for them so far.
3. Take a kick or punt to the house. NAU against Utah Tech crumbled when a quick score (or in that case quick scores) stretched the game out. Montana can do the same, take the air out of their sails after they score or once you’ve stopped them.
4. Hold the lead. Assuming all goes to plan Montana should have a 3rd/4th quarter multiple score lead. If that’s the case then it’s time to ground and pound and limit NAU’s possessions. In their last 2 games they got it going too late but put up a total of 35 points in the 4th quarter over both games. Montana can’t just go 3 and out if they have the lead late because NAU will be firing fast to cut into that lead.
5. The Grizzly O-line has to give Vidlak more time to throw. Seal that front and give him a cleaner pocket.
6. Neutral or positive on turnover margin. Just don’t make a bunch of dumb turnovers and get pinned in short field situations. NAU will smell blood in the water if they can get short field. Their offense piles up numbers – if we help them to start them closer off to the red zone then this could be trouble.
7. Keep that pass attack under wraps. Our defense has to keep the NAU QB’s off balance and rattled through the game. If they can sit back and pick us apart they’ll hang a lot of points on us.
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I don’t know if Montana will make the spread here, but what I really wonder about is how motivated NAU will be in this game. Assuming their coaches have them focused and ready to go they’ll be fired up and a few lucky bounces will have them fighting the whole way. Now, if Montana can flex on them and put them down fast – kind of like they did at Utah Tech – then this game could get out of hand.
I like the Griz for a win, but I need this offense to show me they can put points up. Until then, I’m thinking this is closer than we all want it to be. Griz come away winners, but the worries continue, Griz take it, 27-17.
Go Griz!
In a fascinating opening week there are all sorts of toss-up games on the docket (Cats at Weber, Sac at Idaho, Eastern at Davis, Poly @ Portland, and UNC @ ISU). All of those games I’d venture have a narrow spread and could all be toss-up games. Then there’s the Griz @ NAU. Last I checked Montana is a 3 score favorite. This honestly makes me a little nervous because Montana has had issues in Flagstaff before, add in coming off the Ferris game with under 200 yards of offense.
NAU has undergone a ton of changes, I think they added more freshman and transfers than they have returning players. Their defense has had a pretty heavy overhaul in terms of players and coaches. Their coach could be on the hot seat and they’re hoping this total re-set will get them there. However for the Lumberjacks, this is a new season, everyone is 0-0 in conference, and they do currently post one of the more higher yielding offenses in the conference. Their eyes are set solely on Montana and getting to 1-0 in the Big Syk
NAU Lumberjacks 0-3
3-38 loss @ Arizona: It was just 14-3 at the half, however Arizona would open things up as the game went on. The Wildcats passed for almost 300 and ran for almost 200, looks to me that Arizona never punted once in the game.
22-37 loss @ North Dakota: Another game where it was closer at the half (13-3 UND) and then it opened up. UND stretched a 10 point lead to a 21 and then 28 point lead in the 2nd half. NAU scored 2 TDs in the last 3 minutes of the game to make it look a little closer. NAU had almost 450 of offense, 170 rushing and 275 passing – in fact their yardage total was really close to UND’s. What UND did was hold the ball really well, they had 35 minutes of TOP and finished most drives with TDs. While NAU had a turnover on downs early and lost a fumble. With UND grinding them out they ran out of time to get back into the game – they had just 5 total possessions in the 2nd half.
36-50 loss vs Utah Tech: LOTS of turnovers here, NAU tossed 3 picks, lost 2 fumbles, had a turnover on downs, and missed a field goal. 2 of those NAU picks UTT turned into a defensive score. This game was 37-7 at the half and 50-14 early in the 4th. Utah Tech aired it out – almost 320 passing, while NAU had another day of similar offense splits 280 passing / 160 rushing. NAU’s turnovers totally killed them – because otherwise they were often stopping UTT and forcing fieldgoals. The 2 defensive touchdowns wound up being the difference in the game.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game NAU (150 for GRIZ vs 246 for NAU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (192 for GRIZ vs 136 for NAU)
Total offense NAU (342 for GRIZ vs 382 for NAU)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (225 for GRIZ vs 302 for NAU)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (91 for GRIZ vs 136 for NAU)
Total defense GRIZ (360 for GRIZ vs 438 for NAU)
Grizzly defensive stats give a big help for us, Griz pick up 4 to NAU’s 2
Offense points scored GRIZ (31.6 for GRIZ vs 20.3 for NAU)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (14.3 for GRIZ vs 41.6 for NAU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+3 for GRIZ / -5 for NAU)
Fieldgoal % GRIZ (60% for GRIZ vs 50% for NAU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (18 yards for GRIZ vs 1.5 yards for NAU)
Kick Returns NAU (16.8 yards for GRIZ vs 20.3 yards for NAU)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:05 for GRIZ vs 32:32 for NAU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (26% GRIZ / 69% NAU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (61% GRIZ / 44% NAU)
3rd down offense NAU – (44% for GRIZ / 45.6% for NAU)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (26% allowed for GRIZ vs 50% allowed for NAU)
Griz add a lot here, I noticed NAU has a higher kick return average but I’d venture our one flubbed kick return against FSU is really the factor in Montana’s number there. Griz add 9, NAU adds 2. Total is Griz 13 – NAU 4
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Players to Watch:
#2 Kai Millner, QB: A 6-2, 215 pound transfer from Cal. Kai had a real rough game against Utah Tech but I anticipate we’ll see him as the main signal caller again. I know our coaching staff appreciates his tenacity. He’s got 2 TDs and 2 INTs this season and is averaging about 152 per game. He can run too, 80 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD too.
#5 Devon Starling, RB: A 6-1, 210 transfer from Memphis he’s the main feature back. He’s got 185 rushing and 1 rushing TD. He also has 41 receiving yards this season so far too.
#6 Coleman Owen, WR: NAU does return a lot of their WRs from prior season and Coleman is one of them. He’s 5-11, 175 pounds. He leads the team in yards by a big margin. 261 receiving yards and 1 TD. He has 1 kick return as well. I’ll just go ahead and guess we’re going to see this guy in the slot a lot.
#19 Isiaih Eastman, WR: 2nd on the team in receptions and yards, he’s got 119 yards but no TDs yet this season.
#17 Alex McLaughlin, DB: Listed as a true freshman, the 6-2, 210 pound DB leads the team in tackles so far this season. He has 23 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and 2 pass breakups.
#36 Eloi Kwete, DL: A first team all conference D-lineman, he’s 6-1, 250 pounds. So far this season he’s got just 12 tackles and 0.5 sacks. Last year he had 7 sacks and 11 TFLs, the year before 3 sacks and 9.5 TFLs. He’s the veteran of this defense, has been there since 2019 – recall NAU played in 2020 so he has stats from the “covid year”
#12 Jeff Widener, DB: Name sound familiar? He used to be one of their QBs. Now the 6-2, 210 pound junior is a safety for the team and 4th in stops with 12 and has 1 pass breakup to go with it.
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Keys to a victory
1. The passing game HAS to get going. This simply cannot be said enough. NAU’s defense shows that the Grizzly run and pass game should find lanes to pile up yards. After last week I really do think we need a 225+ passing game here to better establish this offense going forward. Additionally NAU can score quick and in rapid bunches, the Grizzlies may need their pass offense to go score for score at times in this game.
2. Take away the run. While NAU’s best success comes through the air they do want to establish the run and even though they’re 0-3 they’ve shown the know how to do it. They’re going to keep hitting our D-line and linebackers to see how much give we have there. If Montana can take away that ground game it’ll force them into earlier passing situations that haven’t worked out too well for them so far.
3. Take a kick or punt to the house. NAU against Utah Tech crumbled when a quick score (or in that case quick scores) stretched the game out. Montana can do the same, take the air out of their sails after they score or once you’ve stopped them.
4. Hold the lead. Assuming all goes to plan Montana should have a 3rd/4th quarter multiple score lead. If that’s the case then it’s time to ground and pound and limit NAU’s possessions. In their last 2 games they got it going too late but put up a total of 35 points in the 4th quarter over both games. Montana can’t just go 3 and out if they have the lead late because NAU will be firing fast to cut into that lead.
5. The Grizzly O-line has to give Vidlak more time to throw. Seal that front and give him a cleaner pocket.
6. Neutral or positive on turnover margin. Just don’t make a bunch of dumb turnovers and get pinned in short field situations. NAU will smell blood in the water if they can get short field. Their offense piles up numbers – if we help them to start them closer off to the red zone then this could be trouble.
7. Keep that pass attack under wraps. Our defense has to keep the NAU QB’s off balance and rattled through the game. If they can sit back and pick us apart they’ll hang a lot of points on us.
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I don’t know if Montana will make the spread here, but what I really wonder about is how motivated NAU will be in this game. Assuming their coaches have them focused and ready to go they’ll be fired up and a few lucky bounces will have them fighting the whole way. Now, if Montana can flex on them and put them down fast – kind of like they did at Utah Tech – then this game could get out of hand.
I like the Griz for a win, but I need this offense to show me they can put points up. Until then, I’m thinking this is closer than we all want it to be. Griz come away winners, but the worries continue, Griz take it, 27-17.
Go Griz!
