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If the Griz give up 38 they ain't winning the game.
BWahlberg said:The Montana Grizzlies are back into the semifinals for the first time since 2011, and the first time at home since 2009. It’s been a long drought and it feels damn good to see the program back at this level. And of course who else is coming to town but the cornerstone of the modern FCS football dynasty in North Dakota State. NDSU this year had a bit of a choppy start but is arguably the hottest team in the FCS right now and the Griz will square off against the buzzsaw that is the Bison on Saturday.
In the pre-season NDSU was picked to finish 2nd in the conference but then wound up losing 3 conference games to finish tied (technically) for 3rd with YSU, UND, and UNI. At the start of the season NDSU had 14 players voted on their MVFC preseason team. 4 on the first team (FB, OL, DL, PR/KR), 8 on the second (RB, TE, 2 OL, DL, LB, CB, K), and 2 honorable mentions (WR & LB). At seasons end the all conference teams carried their FB (Brozio) to first team, two OL (Kubas / Sundell), a DL (Hendricks), LB (Kopp), a DB (Wisenewski), and their long snapper (also Brozio) all on the first team. Their QB Cam Miller made 2nd team as did one of their D-linemen (Mostaert). I see 1 honorable mention for them as well, the MVFC doesn’t do 3rd teams.
NDSU didn’t have the regular season their fanbase expected and mid-way through the year there was a “Return to Tradition” push wanting their coach run out of town and replaced with someone who can bring back more traditional power running. After I brought this up a few weeks back it was pointed out to me that was a small vocal minority and I’d assume they’re all but silenced after the run the Bison are on now.
As we all know as well, the Bison head coach is headed to USC when their season is over to be their linebackers coach. This isn’t new for NDSU – their last two coaches who left for their next jobs announced it near the end of the playoffs and in both cases NDSU wound up winning the national title.
North Dakota State Bison 11-3
35-10 win vs EWU: NDSU ran for almost 340 yards, and passed for another 175 as they just slowly and steadily outpaced Eastern. EWU did put up some passing yards, 267, but they had no luck on the ground – 72 yards on 28 attempts, a 2.6 YPC average. NDSU had nearly 34:00 of TOP.
44-7 win vs Maine: NDSU again had a big ground game day with 264 rushing, they outgained Maine 456 total yards to 226 total. Maine tossed 3 interceptions in the game while NDSU had no turnovers. NDSU punted once the whole day, they did have 2 turnovers on downs as well. They had 35:00 TOP and held Maine to just 54 total plays on offense.
49-31 win vs Central Arkansas: UCA tried… they were never really close against NDSU but were in the game for a half. With 6:30 to go before the half they score a TD to make it 28-17, down 11, but NDSU would add another score at the half, going up 35-17, and then score the next 14 going up 49-17 before UCA tacked on two late garbage time TDs. NDSU was really balanced on the day, 235 rushing and 246 passing. They did give up 221 rushing to UCA (77 of that on a long rushing TD), and 210 passing – however NDSU did grab 1 pick which they took to the house for a pick-6. Stop me if you heard this before, nearly 35:00 TOP for the Bison.
19-24 loss vs South Dakota: NDSU losing in conference, at home… now that’s not something we hear a lot. USD was up 21-3 at the half, it’s wild looking at the box score too. USD had just 4 first half possessions, the first 3 resulted in TDs, the 4th sent the game to halftime. NDSU only had 3 possessions the whole first half, a field goal, an interception, and a punt. In the 2nd half NDSU only had 3 more possessions total, they scored 2 TDs and 1 field goal – however in that hole USD made a field goal on one of their possessions and that kept the game out of reach. Looking at the box score NDSU outgained USD 350 to 270, they had 35:00 TOP, they were -1 in turnovers though and USD only faced 4 third downs the whole game USD had just 38 plays on offense to 65 for NDSU. Such an odd box score!
38-10 win @ Missouri State: Another big balanced attack for the Bison, 258 rushing, 276 passing and a +3 turnover margin grabbing 3 picks in the game.
24-49 loss @ North Dakota: This one I caught a little bit of and I was honestly pretty shocked. I did not recognize NDSU at all in this game. UND opened with a kickoff housecall to start the game and never trailed the whole day. In the 2nd half UND scored 4 TDs in a row to take the game from a 28-17 UND lead to a 49-17 lead. UND had a good day running on the Bison, 210 on the ground. NDSU had a turnover on downs and tossed a pick in the game, plus they only ran for 148… really out of character. As we all know North Dakota just lost to Sac State in the playoffs last week – who MSU beat by 10 earlier this year.
52-7 win vs Western Illinois: As expected a rebound ass-kicking as in order against winless WIU. 425 rushing, 200 passing, and holding WIU to a total of 184 yards on the day.
38-6 win vs Murray State: A little lower output for the Bison, about 200 passing and 175 rushing. Murray was totally shut down just like WIU was, 164 total yards on offense.
16-33 loss @ South Dakota State: NDSU went up 6-0 due to a blocked PAT, SDSU answered and grabbed a 7-6 lead, NDSU replied with a fieldgoal, recapturing the lead, 9-7… From there though, SDSU was unstoppable. They re-took the lead with a field goal, and then proceeded to score 20 points in their next 5 possessions (2 TDs, 2 FGs, 1 punt). On the other side of the ball NDSU would go 3 and out, then lose a fumble, then miss two field goals in a row, then toss an interception. NDSU was -3 on the day and missed 2 field goals. The teams were somewhat evenly matched in yards 365 for SDSU and 325 for NDSU (difference in a little more passing for SDSU). TOP was essentially split and NDSU was 4 for 12 on 3rd down.
34-10 win vs Southern Illinois: With their playoff hopes on the line NDSU’s postseason essentially started with this game. SIU (who plays Idaho this weekend) absolutely fell into the machine that NDSU runs well. The Bison had 220 rushing, 230 passing, and held the ball for 38:00 TOP – all while being held to just 206 total yards, only 56 on the ground.
48-27 win @ UNI: Coming off the SIU win I think NDSU probably was “in” the playoffs regardless this game, however UNI was playing for a spot and NDSU had to seal the deal to ensure a playoff bid. UNI has/had a potent passing attack and they got their yards through the air, 341 passing… however… they also tossed 4 picks in the game. NDSU would even take one to the house for a score as well. Both teams finished with just over 400 total yards, NDSU’s as you’d expect was pretty balanced.
66-3 win vs Drake: I had this on the TV but was following the Delaware game more. Drake grabs a fumble and kicks a field goal, it’s 3-0, holy sh*t. In true dumbass me on twitter when it was 7-3 NDSU or something I tweet about NDSU having some issues with Drake. Well… NDSU would score TDs on 6 of their next 7 drives and kick a field goal on the other. Drake did have a bit of success with a few long plays but ended up with just a little over 200 total yards and wound up losing 2 picks and 2 fumbles – one of which NDSU scooped and scored on.
35-34 win @ Montana State: I’d assume you must’ve been living under a rock if you don’t know how this game ended. An NDSU reserve OL jumps up and blocks the cat OT extra point to win the game. The cats had their offense going early but missed two field goals as their offense couldn’t find early paydirt. MSU outgained NDSU 513 to 374, they had more TOP, and had NDSU at 2 for 9 on 3rd down. Pulling just the box score and not knowing the full context of the game it’s really a surprise MSU lost this one.
45-17 win @ South Dakota: Revenge is a dish best served cold. After their regular season home loss to USD the Bison jumped all over the Coyotes and this game was over by halftime as NDSU enjoyed a 35-3 lead at that point. USD’s supposedly vaunted defense gave up 206 rushing and 210 passing in the game. I see the NDSU pass defense did give up 250, but USD was forced into having to pass most of the way… which also lead them to tossing 3 interceptions. NDSU also took a punt to the house as well.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game NDSU (200 for GRIZ vs 201 for NDSU)
Rushing yards per game NDSU (191 for GRIZ vs 242 for NDSU)
Total offense NDSU (391 for GRIZ vs 443 for NDSU)
Passing yards allowed per game NDSU (212 for GRIZ vs 188 for NDSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (97 for GRIZ vs 116 for NDSU)
Total defense NDSU (309 for GRIZ vs 304 for NDSU)
Save rushing yards allowed we’ve got so many stat lines that are super close, including just 1 more yard per game for NDSU in passing. However, going by numbers we’ve got NDSU getting 5 and Montana getting 1.
Offense points scored NDSU (32.3 for GRIZ vs 38.8 for NDSU)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (15.8 for GRIZ vs 19.1 for NDSU)
Turnover margin NDSU (+10 for GRIZ / +17 for NDSU)
Fieldgoal % NDSU (66.7% for GRIZ vs 84% for NDSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.6 yards for GRIZ vs 13.9 yards for NDSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (22.9 yards for GRIZ vs 20.2 yards for NDSU)
T.O.P. NDSU (31:30 for GRIZ vs 33:19 for NDSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) NDSU (60% GRIZ / 53% NDSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) NDSU (67% GRIZ / 70% NDSU)
3rd down offense NDSU – (43% for GRIZ / 51% for NDSU)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (29% allowed for GRIZ vs 32% allowed for NDSU)
NDSU again claims most, and isn’t too far behind in the ones they don’t claim. Bison get 7 more while Montana gets 4. That puts the total at NDSU 12, Montana 5.
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NDSU Players to Watch:
#7 Cam Miller, QB: He’s the guy that makes their offense go. He’s the leading rusher with 645 net yards and 13 rushing TDs. He’s passing for just about 181 yards per game and has 18 TD passes to just 4 interceptions. Miller’s completion % is insane 74.5% on 269 attempts. Expect to also see backup QB #9 Cole Payton who is 6-3, 230. He’s got just 277 passing yards and 3 passing TDs this season, however, he has a 3rd best 573 rushing yards and 2nd best 12 rushing TDs on the season.
#22 TaMerik Williams, RB: A 6-1, 227 pound running back he’s got the most carries in the room with 94, he’s got 715 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs this season. They’ll rotate in another big guy in #8, Barika Kpeenu, as well, he’s got 482 on the ground and 4 TDs. Neither RB’s have much for receiving stats.
#0 Zach Mathis, WR: This dude is tall, he’s 6-7 and 203 pounds. Kid’s a 6th year senior and leads the team in receptions (45), yards (651), and receiving TDs (6).
#3 RaJa Nelson, WR: He isn’t 6-7, he’s 5-9 and 187 pounds. Nelson kind of does a lot on this team. He’s their most dangerous kick returner with a 28.4 yard per return average, he’s 3rd on the team in receiving with 375 yards and 2 TDs, he also has 286 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs.
#13 Eli Green, WR: 779 yards and 2 TDs for Green this year, he has nearly a 20 yard per catch average, maybe a bigger play guy for their passing game, he’s got 273 receiving yards in the playoffs so far.. Green also does kick returns, his average is far more favorable for an opponent, under 18 yards per return.
#49 Hunter Brozio, FB: This guy doesn’t get the ball, he’s just a damn good lead blocker. In his 4 year career he has 1 rush attempt, 14 receptions, and 1 TD. This guy is first team as a snapper and a fullback, just something we don’t see a lot in the Big Sky.
#31 Cole Wisniewski, S: Cole is a stat monster, he had a team high 81 tackles, a team best 8 interceptions (3 in the post season), team best 13 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. As I mentioned earlier the 6-4, 217 pound senior finished first team all conference.
#54 Jake Kava, DE: a 6-1, 250 pound DE that’s tops on the team in sacks with 7 and TFLs with 13. Interestingly no forced fumbles and just 1 QB hit. He’s got 45 tackles this season.
#95 Dylan Hendricks, DE: He’s 6-3, 257, and made 1st team all MVFC. He’s got 40 tackles, 6.5 sacks and 10.5 TFLs as well as 1 forced fumble.
#23 Jayden Price, CB: Price is another guy that you’ll see in multiple spots. He’s got 42 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and 1 sack. He’s also got 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. He might be the best punt returner we’ll have seen to date so far as well. He took one to the house against USD. He averages 14.2 per return and has 2 TDs this season
#43 Logan Kopp, LB: The 6-1, 222 pound backer made first team MV as well. He’s 2nd on the team in tackles with 80, he’s got 7.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. He’s got 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 7 passes defended. This guy is all over the field.
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Keys to a victory
1. Don’t fall into the bear trap. NDSU’s game plan is as we’ve seen from them (and what Idaho wanted to do as well). They want to slow the game down, control TOP, and limit possessions that Montana has on offense. The Grizzlies cannot let NDSU just grind them out if they want to win this game. The Grizzly rush defense has to have the absolute GAME OF THEIR LIFE and keep that NDSU ground game from chewing up the clock all day.
2. Montana’s offense has to find it’s footing again and score early and often. MSU had a chance to put NDSU in an early hole but couldn’t do it. In NDSU’s 3 losses – USD was up 21-3 at the half, SDSU was up 20-9 at the half, and UND was up 28-17 at the half. Getting an early lead on these guys – who until the USD game – were having a few issues with slow starts is going to be really helpful.
3. Cam Miller cannot find wide open options downfield. Talk about momentum killers. USD repeatedly would find NDSU WR’s piercing their zone defense and giving up deep shots (many times on 3rd down) to continue a drive and set up a score. Back breaking plays.
4. I think we need 250 + passing from Cliff and at least 1 rusher with over 100 himself. Montana’s offense has to put numbers up. Can they? We’ll see, if the Griz offense does what it did against Furman (inconsistent drives and just
5. Be the better special teams unit. It’s no surprise that two of the top FCS programs have damn good ST play. Both our squads have returns flip field and are (generally) reliable making field goals to ensure even stalled drives add points. This is strength on strength here – Griz need to have the upper hand.
6. Limit turnovers, if we lose one or two don’t turn them into scores. NDSU is stunning at little they give opponents turnovers, just 4 picks and 6 lost fumbles all season. Obviously if the Griz can force them, great, but at the very least Montana can’t let a +17 NDSU team get some free ones and then turn them into points.
7. 12th man needs to be LOUD. Every fan needs to be at or even higher levels than they were for the cat game. NDSU won’t be phased much by a rowdy crowd, but we as fans have 1 job – make noise and hopefully force a few miscommunications and false starts.
8. Cut back the penalty yards. Montana cannot eclipse 100 penalty yards on dumb stuff. NDSU averages near 55 yards per game in penalties, let’s keep that more evenly matched this game.
9. The Grizzly OL has to bounce back from their showing against Furman. We can’t have just our QB be the only effective runner.
10. White / Fontes / Bergen / Racanelli need to catch EVERYTHING that comes their way and make sure to get back on track with piling up YAC
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I said 42-38 Griz on the GFP.
I’m sticking with it. I think this will be an absolute battle, these are two awesome teams that have absolutely earned the right to be in the FCS semifinals. NDSU’s 3 losses are ancient history, they’re playing way better ball right now and can beat teams on the ground or in the air. As long as the Montana rush defense doesn’t get punished they’ll be able to hopefully slightly limit NDSU enough to make this a hell of a ballgame.
This is NDSU’s 3rd week with a road playoff game and their 7th in a row with no bye week. I hope that the “road grind” can creep in and help the Griz as well.
Fans – PLEASE get there and pack the house. Win or lose this is the last sendoff we have for our boys. This is Montana’s chance to go toe to toe with what every program wants to be. The return of Hauck brought a plan in place to get this Griz team to chase and someday hopefully eclipse what this NDSU team can do on an annual basis. That can happen Saturday, let’s get it!
Go Griz!
If the Griz give up 38 they ain't winning the game.
