The season is finally here and what an intro to the season it will be! A new head coach, a new offense headlined by a new in-state QB. We’re facing the 4 time national champion NDSU Bison. Oh and it’s the very first college game of the season, on ESPN, with Brent Mussberger and Jesse Palmer. Add in the stadium has some new upgrades and it will be setting a new attendance record for sue. No pressure at all, right?
As always the opening game scouting report is tricky, this year even more so since we’ve got a brand new offense that will not look much like what we’ve seen since the mid-90’s. Additionally for all you charts and graphs fans… none for me this year, too much work to get together and they looked like junk anyways. I figured I’ll stack statistical advantages to each team – give me some feedback here on what you like better.
NDSU Bison: 15-1 record and 4th consecutive national title in 2014
I’m not going to pick apart their 16 games but here’s a few of note;
34-14 win vs Iowa State: ISU was up 14-0 and looking like they were going to grind out a perceived inferior team of an FCS school. NDSU didn’t panic and only went on to score 34 unanswered points. NDSU ran for 302, passed for 204, and held the ball for about 60% of the game (almost 36:00 TOP). On the road and in front of a big crowd the Bison didn’t let an early deficit deflate them at all.
24-7 win vs Weber State: The only other Big Sky School they played besides Montana, Weber had success passing the ball. NDSU’s bloggers point out that NDSU was nervous b/c the stipulation of “win and we get ESPN Game Day” was hung over the team’s head. Weber passed for 240 and grabbed 2 interceptions to keep NDSU from rolling to their usual massive style of wins. Weber was able to successfully prevent many long and drawn-out NDSU drives – their main problem was that they didn’t have an offense to match their defense’s productivity.
22-10 win vs Montana: Hey that’s us! We all know the story here, the Montana defensive line played valiantly with multiple big time stops and forcing many fieldgoals instead of TDs. However NDSU wore us out as the game went on and our offense had two good drives that wound up scoring 10 points but could pretty much do nothing otherwise.
17-10 win vs Western Illinois: It was looking shaky for NDSU, they were down 10-0 heading into the 4th. WIU was running the ball well and practically gave up on passing it. NDSU was also stung with 2 lost fumbles and 1 interception. But, when needed, NDSU in the 4th prevented WIU from getting any first downs, forced punts, and scored 14 points off two long and drawn out drives to ice the game.
3-23 loss vs UNI: On the road again and UNI was able to run the ball with great efficiency – they controlled the clock and prevented NDSU from ever getting going. NDSU’s longest drive of the game was 37 yards and it resulted in a punt. UNI meanwhile ground it out and didn’t score much until late when they’d presumably worn down an NDSU defense that wasn’t used to being in this kind of a game.
29-27 win vs Illinois State: This is it, the pinnacle of the FCS and where the Griz want to be again – winning the FCS national title. This game was quite the back and forth. In the 3rd it was looking like NDSU was pulling away, up 20-7, but ISU fought back and wound up taking the lead with 1:38 to go on a 58 yard TD scramble by their QB. NDSU then put together a 78 yard drive that took just 1:01 to score a TD that would secure their 4th in a row. ISU also exposed NDSU’s sometimes suspect rush D in that game, almost 260 rushing.
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General Stats (for the sake of this game I’m using Stitt’s CSM offense numbers from 2014)
Looking at yardage per game, here’s who holds the advantage:
Passing yards Montana (382 for UM vs 197 for NDSU = 185 more YPG)
Rushing yards NDSU (144 for UM vs 245 for NDSU = 91 more YPG)
Total Offense Montana (526 for UM vs 442 for NDSU = 84 more YPG)
Pass defense NDSU (211 allowed for UM vs 155 allowed for NDSU = 56 less YPG allowed)
Rush defense NDSU (148 allowed for UM vs 125 allowed for NDSU = 17 less YPG allowed)
Total defense NDSU (359 allowed for UM vs 280 allowed for NSDU = 73 less YPG allowed)
Advantage NDSU 4 categories to 2
Other Stats worthy of mention:
Offense Points Scored UM (38 ppg for UM vs 33 ppg for NDSU)
Defense points Allowed NDSU (21 ppg for UM vs 14 ppg for NDSU)
Turnover margin NDSU (+5 for UM vs +13 for NDSU with UM’s offense stats they were +15 last season)
Fieldgoal % NDSU (68% for UM vs 85% for NDSU)
Punt returns UM (11 yards per return for UM vs 10 yards per return for NDSU)
Kick returns NDSU (18 for UM vs 20 for NDSU)
T.O.P. NDSU (31:44 for UM vs 34:04 for NDSU)
Red Zone Defense (touchdowns) UM (46% allowed for UM vs 55% allowed for NDSU)
Red Zone Offense (touchdowns) UM (66% scored for UM vs 61% scored for NDSU)
Advantage NDSU 5 categories to 4
It is really worthwhile to point out that these comparisons are weak, at best. The offensive numbers for the Griz are used from a 2014 CSM team with years of experience and time in Stitt’s offense while the 2015 Griz do not have that luxury. Additionally both teams have lost starters, especially on defense, that will presumably have a great impact on these numbers. However, it’s the best I can do
Some final numbers:
Sitt’s offense at home last year was scoring just about his season average at 37 points per game while NDSU on the road was scoring 28 points per game. (For comparison Delaney’s offense was scoring 39 ppg at home).
Gregorak’s defense at home last year was allowing just 16 points per game while NDSU’s road defense was allowing 14 points per game
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Players to watch:
#11 Carson Wentz, QB – Wentz is one of the better QBs in the FCS, he finished 2nd all-conference in the pre-season voting and was named to the STATS FCS top 50 list. He’s a big 6-6 guy and can run and throw the ball well. Last year he ran for 650 yards and 6 TDs and passed for 3111 yards and had 25 TD passes to 10 INTs.
#46 Andrew Bonnet, FB/TE – Bonnet also made the STATS Top 50 and he was named 2nd team all MVFC. His stats aren’t anything flashy (32 rushing yards / 230 receiving and 2 TDs) but he’s a guy that makes a lot happen for the offense when blocking for the runners and he’s nationally recognized for it. He is a load too, 6-3 and 250 pounds.
#59 Joe Haeg, OT – Normally I list playmakers that we’ll see carrying the ball on offense but Haeg deserves special mention. In an immensely talented O-line Haeg even stands out, the 6-6 310 pound left tackle is considered not only one of the best in the FCS but in all of college football. He’s currently ranked as the 6th best tackle available for the 2016 draft.
#82 Zach Vraa, WR – Vraa is the team’s leading receiver, he had 637 yards and 4 TDs last year. He’s one of two seniors in the WR corps. The 6-2, 202 pound WR will be all our secondary can handle. Vraa is closing in on many NDSU receiving records and had a good chance to break many of them as he was granted his 6th year to play for the Bison by the NCAA.
#16 RJ Urzendowski, WR – Only starting 9 of 16 games he wound up leading the team in yards per reception for most major WRs with 19.6 yards per catch and a team leading 5 TDs.
#88 Luke Albers, TE – The senior TE is 6-5, 250 pounds and a big time red zone threat. Just 177 yards last season but 4 receiving TDs.
#5 Jordan Champion, CB – The leading tackler that returns, Champion finished 6th on the team with 68 tackles. He had 10 pass break ups but no interceptions. His status for the game isn’t known, he’s missed some practice.
#49 Nick DeLuca, LB – The next in tackles on the team with 67 and 3 INTs – DeLuca was inserted to start at MLB during the playoffs and did pretty well. I assume he’ll be the starting ‘mike backer for the game.
#6 CJ Smith, CB – Has worked through a few knee issues but played in most all games last year and finished as an honorable mention for the conference. 47 tackles and 18 pass breakups, with 1 pick. He’s also the main punt returner with a nearly 12 yard per return average.
#19 Ben LeCompte, P – Worth pointing out this guy is top 50 in the STATS list, 1st team all-conference, and gets a lot of mention as one of the best punters nationally. In a game that could be about field position this guy will be a key role player. Also his long-snapper is considered one of the better in the FCS as well.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Attack NDSU’s inexperienced defense. A mix of a few things could be UM’s biggest advantage in this game. The unknown factor of preparing for a new offense and breaking in 7 (possibly 8) new starters. Some NDSU fall reports suggest the pass defense needs some work. The mix of a bunch of new starters and a pass-heavy and aggressive offense should result in many more long drives for the Griz compared to last year.
2. Burn the Bison with some big plays. The two public scrimmages each had flashes of the big play capability of the Grizzly offense. If the Griz can connect on a handful of big plays to our stable of playmaker WRs that could really stack up the points in our favor.
3. Give Brady time to throw. We’re working in some new guys on the O-line and waiting on the day-to-day health of others. In a pass-heavy offense it will be vital to give our QB time to find his targets and keep the offense in gear. NDSU has many new faces on their D-line and while it’s unknown yet if they’ve got a replacement for their Peyton award winning DE Emmanuel it’s a safe assumption they’ve got some good talent that’ll be ready to go for the game.
4. Focus on execution and forget the hype. As the opening paragraph suggested – the amount of excitement and anticipation around this game is bigger than I’ve ever seen. We’ve got a mix of experienced and new guys that will be out there on Saturday. It’s going to be tough to do but this Griz team needs to come right out the gate and execute as flawlessly as possible and try to drown out noise and the excitement swirling around this game.
5. Limit the 3 and outs. Simply put, don’t force the defense to have to play 55% to 60% (or more) of the game clock. Control the ball, control the clock, limit the quick 3 and outs.
6. Stop the running back by committee group dead in their tracks. WAY easier said than done, NDSU has an o-line that’s full of NFL prospects. Gone is the feature back in Crockett but there will be 2 to 3 backs that will get a lot of carries. It’ll be on the Griz defense to punish these new ball carriers and stuff the run. I don’t think the Griz can “win” in the trenches against this NDSU O-line, the linebackers will have a major task to prevent long runs on Saturday.
7. Keep Wentz from scrambling. Yeah I know he’s a good passing QB as well – but make the guy as 1-dimensional as possible.
8. No big pass plays given up. With 2 new starters in the secondary and our best pass defender LB (Gamboa) out for this game, the pass defense is going to have to watch for the occasional deep shot. That’s going to really test Whitted and Rasmussen to make sure they don’t let any NDSU receiver get behind them or else it could be an easy TD for the Bison.
9. Win in the red zone. Force NDSU fieldgoal attempts when they have the ball and score some damn TDs when we have the ball. I don’t know how to assess our kicking game, there were only a handful of attempts in the scrimmages. I assume we’re going to see a lot of attempts to convert those 4th downs instead of try for fieldgoals.
10. Force 2 or more turnovers. It seems that many of NDSU’s closer games and/or losses come when they play a little sloppy. Wentz isn’t perfect by any stretch of imagination, he throws the occasional pick, and the new RB’s should get tested big time to see how secure they carry the ball. If the Griz can force 2 or more takeaways that would be huge.
11. Have fun, enjoy the moment, and remember this is just 1 game that doesn’t make the entire season. This could be more for Griz FANS than players, haha. The tension and excitement around this game feels bigger than prior years when the Griz were playing for a national title. NDSU is 1 game on this schedule. A win or a loss doesn’t set the fate of the season. I really hope that Wa Griz is going to be as insane as it used to be in the 90’s and early 2000’s which will resonate with the players. (For you newer fans – think the 2009 playoff game atmosphere and just apply it to about every game – that’s how it used to be).
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This is quite the game to open the season, for both teams. I see weaknesses for NDSU – primarily on the defensive side of the ball. I see so many unknowns for the Griz with the new system and some new key starters, add in the special teams questions. There’s some intangibles here as well. It’s in Wa Griz this time, it’s the opening game of the season, and while it probably gives little to no difference there’s the factors of the smoky air and difference in elevation for NDSU. All those things aside the NDSU offense, especially its offensive line and its QB, have me leaning to an NDSU win here. I think the game may open slowly with both defenses looking solid. Additionally the offenses may have some challenges finding time getting going early. This game could come down to which team re-groups at the half and makes the adjustments to ramp up their efficiency on offense. I think this game will go down as a very memorable one but eventually one that NDSU will pull away from in the 4th quarter. A valiant Griz effort keeps it close but my gut feeling is 31-21 NDSU at the end of the day.
However, if the Griz can really catch this NDSU defense off-guard fast and get the Bison down early… that could really change a lot of things. Stitt’s offense keeps attacking, we won’t see any “Bobby ball” out of this team. If the Griz can build an early advantage and keep it rolling, there’s a good chance they could come out of this game the victors.
GO GRIZ!
