It doesn't take Dick Tracy to at least figure out some of what is going on based on actual news reports. First, you have a major booster that sits on the UM athletic board come out and admit that he has given student athletes improper benefits. We then spent about 5 months arguing over whether there was in fact an ongoing NCAA investigation. Of course no one on this board wanted to believe it, but it didn't take Einstein to figure out that there was an ongoing investigation and of course it was finally announced that in fact there was an NCAA investigation.
Next we hear that UM is sending out letters to GSA members telling people to be mindful of providing free food at tailgates to student athletes because this is considered an improper benefit. Naturally, everyone on this board jumps to the conclusion that giving away hot dogs is the sum total of the NCAA investigation rather than reaching a more logical conclusion that the NCAA is investigating UM for improper benefits to student athletes and UM is covering all the bases, even down to the most inane violation of providing food to student athletes. If this was in fact the sum total of the investigation it would have been announced in an official press conference along with the accepted penalty of something like making sure proper information is given to tailgaters. Instead, nothing more is said meaning this was not the conclusion of the investigation.
Finally, we have the AD come out and basically announce that UM will be subject to at least lost scholarships and forfeited games. Interestingly, no one at the Missoulian has done any follow up reporting on this statement and of course everyone on this board immediately decides this is worst case scenario. Again, the more logical conclusion is that these are the penalties being offered by UM and UM is waiting for a response from the NCAA. The AD is trickling out this information to soften the blow and hoping this will be the result of the investigation. However, more importantly, this statement clearly indicates that UM has likely agreed that NCAA violations have occurred and have agreed on what those violations are and have moved into negotiating a penalty, i.e., this investigation is now in the penalty phase.
Now the only question left is what penalty will be imposed. Based on this discussion and the amount of time between the AD's statements and today (a point that I personally believed we would have heard an announcement) MY GUESS is the hang up is over a post-season ban. Anything else I think UM would have readily accepted to have the investigation over. But a post-season ban has wide reaching consequences. Even though the NCAA gets the majority of the gate, these games bring a lot of dollars into the city. If there is a ban that money is lost and you might also see a trickle down effect to lower season ticket sales and worse, season ticket holders actually not showing up to regular season games because there is no possibility of playoffs, which cost both the University and the city a lot of cash.
Again, this is a Guess, but just taking into consideration reported facts this is likely close to what is going on. The bigger concern for UM fans would be if UM is fighting a multi-year post-season ban because that would mean at a minimum UM would probably accept a one year ban.
