Griz/Cat is upon us and this year’s matchup features a storyline that’s been familiar over the last 25 years, one team enters the game red hot, the other is hoping to hang their hats on an upset win to salvage something left of an up and down season. The oddity of course is that this year the shoe is on the other foot, the Bobcats are coming into Missoula as the #2 team in the country while it’s the Griz who are sitting on a 5-5 record full-well realizing this is their last game of the season.
For both teams there’s a lot riding on this win. For the Cats there’s a #1 or #2 seed that guarantees home field advantage all the way to the national championship game and I believe the title for the Big Sky conference. For the Griz there’s the hope of finishing with a winning season, retaining the divide trophy, and ending a rather dismal season on a high note.
Here we go, record: 9-1
33-6 win vs Chadron State: The cats started slow with their four drives going punt, punt, TD, lost fumble – but after that they settled down and put the game out of reach from a Chadron team that just couldn’t keep up. MSU’s defense swallowed up Chadron allowing just 135 total yards, while their offense put up over 400 total yards, about 150 worth of that coming on Kirk and Davis’s carries.
34-24 win @ Drake: Drake held a 17-14 lead at the half as the MSU offense got very little going against them. However in the 2nd half the Cats came to life late. In the 3rd qtr the Cats grabbed the lead early but lost on a Drake TD that put them at 24-21. Then MSU’s defense locked it down, allowing just 39 total yards to Drake on their final 4 possessions. Meanwhile MSU’s offense scored 13 unanswered (2 TDs, one blocked PAT. Drake had some passing success, 311 in the air but had just 59 rushing yards rushing. MSU was pretty balanced, 374 total yards, 168 on the ground with Davis, Robinson, Kirk, and McGhee all with significant rushing contributions. McGhee threw 2 picks and Kirk lost 1 fumble but the three turnovers only led to 7 Drake points.
43-35 win vs SFA: I count 7 lead changes in this shootout of a game. Really only one stat stands out to me that suggested this game should be close, and that was SFA’s 420 yards passing (and just 55 rushing). Otherwise the Cats controlled many key indicators of the game. SFA had 3 turnovers, MSU had 2, SFA had the ball for just 21:24 while the Cats had it for 38:36. The Cats were 7-18 on 3rd down and 4-4 on 4th down while SFA was 6-15 on 3rd down and never went for it on 4th. However SFA did out-gain MSU overall and had a chance to win it in the end but threw a costly pick which MSU then used to set up a fieldgoal to open up the final score.
41-16 win vs UNC: This one was over in a hurry, up 21-0 at the end of the 1st qtr the Cats put a string of ugly wins behind them with a very solid game against UNC. UNC had just 34 yards rushing and 214 yards passing while the Cats had 177 on the ground a whopping 384 in the air – McGhee’s first big passing game.
24-17 win vs SUU: Something that EWU, UM, and NAU couldn’t do – beat Southern Utah. This game was tied up until 3:00 left in the 4th when MSU put together a 12 play 67 yard drive that got them the lead. SUU wasn’t done – they got all the way down to MSU’s 27 but they were tight on time and had to take one shot to the endzone as the clock ran out – it was picked off by MSU. That pick was one of SUU’s two – MSU had 4 on the day including 3 lost fumbles (lost by Davis, Ellis, and McGhee).
48-41 win vs UCD: I watched the first half of this game and went out to do something else since the Cats were up 31-14 at the half. UCD stormed back with a 24-point run, 17 of which came off MSU turnovers. There weren’t a ton of yards piled up (MSU 400 / UCD 350) but the big issue was turnover, 4 for MSU and 3 for UCD. MSU’s turnovers included 3 lost fumbles (Salanoa, Gilbert, McGhee). UCD’s turnovers killed them late, including a pick that set up a 1st and goal for MSU on the 1 and then a turnover on downs to end any chance they had at winning the game.
27-24 loss vs EWU: MSU’s sloppy play finally caught up to them, 3 more turnovers (to 2 EWU turnovers) including a missed fieldgoal that was just from 33 yards out which would have put the Cats within 7 at the time and then made their final TD a game tying TD instead of one that put them just 3 points short. Consider this, EWU had just 211 total yards of offense in the win 71 rushing and 140 passing – MSU had 70 rushing but almost 300 passing. EWU helped themselves out by blocking a punt and scoring a TD on it as well and their last TD was a pick-6. MSU beat themselves more than EWU actually beat them, IMO.
55-10 win vs UND: UND was coming of a record-setting day against the porous Grizzly defense, today was different story, just 15 rushing yards and 165 passing yards for UND. Meanwhile MSU must’ve read my scouting report on UND (I keed I keed) because they RAN IT at UND and shut them down, 438 rushing yards and another 259 passing. It was a total butt kicking. MSU must’ve been relieved a little as well, no turnovers at all.
20-17 win @ Sac St: Good teams win on the road and MSU was facing a Sac team with its back against the wall and coming off a very big win. The game was a struggle, tied at the half 10-10, Sac suddenly struck deep with a 75 yard TD pass to get up 17-13 late in in the 3rd. However MSU answered, after forcing a missed Sac fieldgoal on Sac’s next possession the Cats went down the field quickly and scored the game-winning TD with 8:00 left in the game. Sac would have two more chances to get the lead back, but their first drive was ended after MSU forced a sack and fumble on their next drive MSU picked of Sac’s QB Saffron a few plays into the drive – game over. Sac passed for 250 but ran for just 82, while MSU ran for 170 and passed for just 105. Sac had 4 total turnovers while MSU had none.
65-30 win vs PSU: This I believe was only the 2nd game MSU allowed a team to rush for over 100 yards (UCD had 108). However it should be mentioned with an asterisk because PSU’s yards and points came against the MSU scrubs as the Cats were up 59-10 at the half. PSU lost 4 turnovers and put the ball on the ground 6 times total. I didn’t see the game but I was following twitter updates and I saw that Tanner Bleskin left the game early and McGhee took a big shot and didn’t return – however the game was well out of reach so I assume he was just removed to be safe.
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Players to watch:
#9 DeNarius McGhee, QB: McGhee is in the mix for Big Sky MVP and while his fumble issues tend to spring up from time to time he’s been a guy that the offense lives and dies by. When McGhee is off, so is MSU’s offense. McGhee has thrown 21 TDs and just 8 Ints this year, averaging about 250 passing yards per game. He’s a running threat too, he’s got 4 rushing TDs and has 399 “gained” rushing yards before you take out the lost yards, mostly attributed to being sacked.
#25 Cody Kirk, RB: I was one of many that wondered if Kirk would fade away with the return of Orenzo Davis, and while his numbers have dropped back he’s still the guy that gets the most touches and has by far the most rushing TDs. 760 rushing yards on the season and a 95 yard/game average, he’s got 12 rushing TDs, he’s also got 120 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD.
#8 Orenzo Davis, RB: Griz fans remember Davis last time he played in Wa Griz, bouncing off tackles to give MSU their go-ahead TD. He’s averaging 61 yards/game and has 7 TDs on the season, he’s also got nearly 100 receiving yards.
#86 Tanner Bleskin, WR: Bleskin was knocked out of the PSU game early but I can’t imagine him missing this one. A tall WR that’s emerged as the best target on the team, almost 700 yards and 3 TDs, he averages 77 yards/game. Bleskin leads the team in receptions (54), yards (693), and YPC with more than 10 catches (12.8). Considering our pass D watch for him early and often in the middle of the field.
#4 Jon Ellis, WR: Ellis is a smaller guy than Bleskin, he’s the #2 guy in many respects, 2nd in catches and 2nd in yards. He does have the most receiving TDs with 5.
#7 Tray Robinson, RB: Look for Robinson to do a ton. He’s a powerful back who has only 187 rushing yards but 4 TDs. However he’s 3rd on the team in receptions with 29, 2nd on the team in receiving TDs with 4, and has 223 receiving yards total this year.
#14 Everett Gilbert, WR: Seems like he’s been on the cats forever, a senior finally – Gilbert has 287 receiving yards this year, he’s got a great KR average of 26.2 yards as well. No TDs scored so far this year…
#84 Brian Flotkotter, WR: Keep an eye on this guy, I know he had the game-winning score against SUU, his other receiving TD might’ve been a game winner as well. A 6-2 WR he’s got 186 yards this year and 2 TDs.
#33 Shawn Johnson, RB: Johnson is an up and comer for the Cats. He’s their main PR/KR guy right now and just took a punt to the house last week. His 9.2 PR average was bolstered by that return, before that his return average was closer to 6 yards. He’ll get a few passes and rush attempts potentially, he’s got a huge 19.6 yard/catch average and 2 receiving TDs as well as a team best 6.1 ypc average – although I suspect a lot of that comes from junk time.
#23 Jody Owens, LB: Owens leads the team in tackles with 69, he’s got 8 TFL and 3 sacks as well as 2 forced fumbles.
#49 Caleb Schreibeis, DE: A 6-3, 253 pound defensive end, Caleb has 35 tackles, 13 TFL, 10 sacks, an a whopping 7 forced fumbles and 7 QB hits. I assume the Cats will try to get him lined up against John Schmaing. Schreibeis is probably in the hunt for defensive POY for the conference, IMO.
#96 Zach Minter, DT: Maybe one of the better DTs in the FCS, Minter is nearly 300 pounds. He’s only got 19 tackles this year but 6 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 1 INT even!
#13 Darius Jones, CB: Jones has 4 picks this year, one he even took back for a TD, he’s tied for a team best 9 PBUs and has a forced fumble as well.
#1 Steven Bethley, FS: Bethley has 3 ints, 1 pick-6 score, 34 tackles, 9 PBUs, and 2 recovered fumbles.
#2 Na’a Moeakiola, LB: A 5-11 guy Na’a is 2nd on the team in tackles with 63. He’s got a good nose for getting after the ball, 9.5 TFLs but just 1 sack, he’s also got 5 pass break ups.
#5 Joel Fuller, SS: Fuller’s probably hoping for a better game this time around, he’s 37 tackles (4th best on the team) and 1 INT.
#41 Brad Daly, DE: Pass-rusher kind of guy, Daly had huge numbers last year, he’s receded a bit but still has 4 sacks and 6.5 TFLs
#44 Aleksei Grosulak, LB: He’s got just 20 tackles, 1 pick, and 1 FF this year but cat fans never shut up about him, so he’s got to be good, right?
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General Stats:
- MSU’s offense averages 188 rushing yards/game and 252 passing yards/game. Meanwhile the Grizzly defense allows on average 91.1 rushing yards/game and 292.5 passing yards/game.
- MSU’s defense allows on average just 88.8 yards per game rushing and 216.4 yards per game passing. Meanwhile the Grizzly offense averages 242.5 yards per game rushing and 220 yards per game passing.
- MSU has the best run D in the conference while the UM has the best run offense in the conference.
- UM is -2 in turnover margin while MSU is +2
- MSU is big on clock control, an average TOP of almost 34:00 (UM is at 30:24)
- MSU’s scoring is huge in the 1st half, 61% of all their points scored have been in the 1st half of the game. Meanwhile their defense is a little bit the opposite, 54% of all their points allowed have come in the 2nd half.
- MSU has the best scoring offense in the league – 38.7 ppg (UM defense 6th best at 27.6 ppg allowed). On the other side MSU has the 2nd best scoring defense allowing 22.3 ppg (Grizzly O is 5th best at 34.1 ppg scoring).
- MSU leads the Big Sky in total interceptions with 13 (UM has 11)
- MSU has the 3rd worst net punting average in the Big Sky.
- UM has the most sacks of any team in the league with 39, MSU is 2nd with 34. UM has only allowed 16 total sacks while MSU has allowed 24.
- MSU is 2nd best in the league converting 54% of their 3rd down attempts (UM 4th best at 40%). MSU’s defense is the best in stopping 3rd down conversions allowing them just 26% of the time, the UM defense is 5th best allowing them just 40% of the time.
- MSU is one of the most penalized teams in the Big Sky, 3rd worst with 76 yards/game on average, while UM is 2nd best with a 52 yard/game average.
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Keys to a UM victory:
- Take advantage of an MSU team that plays tight on the road. The Cats on the road have won their games by an average of 6.75 points (explains the 7 point favorites I suppose). They’ve not been as great on the road with their largest win margin being 10 points at Drake.
- Force turnovers, especially fumbles. If you take out the Sac game the Cats are -4 in turnover margin on the road, add Sac back in and they’re even. In their 4 road games they’ve lost 8 fumbles and thrown 4 interceptions. Those 12 total turnovers in 4 games account for 60% of all their lost turnovers.
- Win in the trenches. Tougher to do than say. The Grizzly running game has to find ground and force the cat DBs up. Our OL has to WIN up front if the Griz want a chance to win the game. The Cats will win TOP I presume, but if the Griz can put some quicker strikes on the board and run the ball effectively that will be huge. It’s a tall order, this is the best running offense vs the best rush defense.
- Help John Schmaing. Not meaning to bring the guy down but he’s going to need help big time against Scheibeis and Daly. I have confidence in our interior line, I worry about Schmaing making a 2nd career start against the 2nd best DL in the Big Sky. SSH will need more than one quick second to throw the ball.
- Sack McGhee. Wags and crew need to get after him. He’s still having fumble issues and hitting him in the backfield could lead to some easy turnovers.
- Spy McGhee. The Grizzly defense has shown issues this year putting a spy on mobile QBs. EWU comes to mind immediately. Gotta put a spy on Denarius or he’ll pick up some 3rd and medium downs with his feet if our linebackers sell out to cover the pass.
- Let the cats make mistakes. I’ve been impressed with how UM has played with reduced penalties. Keep it up, let the cats tally up their penalties and stay cool.
- Wrap-up. Orzeno Davis pinballing off many would-be tacklers 2 years ago still haunts me. Tackling has been an issue for our safeties and outside linebackers. Give up the first down to make a clean tackle, just don’t get burned big time making a diving head-first/arms tucked in tackle just to fall flat on the ground hitting no one.
- DO YOUR 1/11. If there ever was a game that this needs to be preached – the cat game is it. These Griz have no post-season to play for and I imagine the players will find themselves facing tremendous challenges on Saturday. Some players may be pressed to go over and beyond their positions duty to try to make a play in a time of desperation. That will KILL the Griz if this happens. In all 5 of our losses you can point to many moments where a D-end, LB, safety gets out of position in an attempt to make a play – these errors usually lead to big scoring plays.
- Keep at it, pile on 100 if you can (I know they can’t… but hey one can hope).
- Adjust. If the stats tell a story of what’s to come, the cats will probably be leading at halftime – or it’ll be tight. The Griz will need to make good halftime adjustments, the opportunities are there in the 2nd half.
- No mistakes. PSU can tell the Griz what happens when you make bone-headed mistakes/turnovers in a game.
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Overall I see this being a battle. In all senses the Cats are favored, they’ve got the better record, the better stats, the better experienced talent, and probably a better overall outlook going into this game. The Griz will come in angry and with a bone to pick – one last thing to prove. I don’t see either team opening up a huge advantage here unless the Griz pull a PSU-like crumble.
Grizzly goals in sight: beat the cats, keep the divide trophy, a winning season, sending the seniors out with one more win. It’s a big thing to strive for. The fans will need to show up and be loud. I would expect that this time around we’ll see more cat fans in Wa Griz than ever before. They smell blood in the water and want to be in Missoula to see what they expect will be a cat win. Lets see what happens, I believe the Griz can play spoilers and send the cats into the playoffs 9-2.
GO Griz!