Mover-Ups Doing Well

[Blue Tears]

Wow, AZ, I am impressed by your effort, but your math is very fuzzy. First of all you left four teams out of your calculation. The four squads you omitted have FBS facilities and money behind their program and played in FCS. They all have losing FBS records. If you want to pick and choose a team that compares the best to us, Idaho would be the most appropriate and as we all know, their results aren't pretty and we are 27-55-2 all time vs the Vandals. Idaho also won four more Big Sky titles than we did when we shared the same league.

According to your own data, there were 18 teams (not 17 as you reported) that had winning FCS records. After a move, their were 8 (not 9 as you reported) teams with winning records. This is with you leaving four teams out that played in FCS then moved to FBS. So, out of the 23 teams you provided, 8 had a winning FBS record, Using your data, that amounts to a 34.8% chance of a winning record. If you want to only consider winning FCS teams (once again omitting teams that made the jump to FBS), then we have a 44.4% chance of a winning record. So when you skew the data to your favor, it only resulted in LESS than half a chance of having a winning record. That is not an optimistic picture.

You also included Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in your winning records even though they have only played in the Sun Belt for a very short period and against 82% of the teams that were one time FCS, including two that were apparently so weak that you didn't even include them in your FCS to FBS calculations. New Mexico State (maybe the worst FBS team, although they beat Idaho) is also in that league. The MWC is far superior to the Sun Belt as long as you are comparing apples to apples. I think we could do well in the Sun Belt (they are mostly all former FCS teams), but I really don't want to move up and play there. The MWC is really the only viable option to move, and that league has all established FBS teams.

Our all time FCS record versus all the teams that have moved onto FBS isn't pretty either. We lost far more games than we won vs Boise, Idaho and Nevada. Not helping matters is the fact that only four teams that have moved up (out of 27) have FBS win percents above 60%.

And Soldier, quit being a hypocrite, You have no problem with AZ and others responding to posts, so quit acting like me doing the SAME thing is wrong. Just because someone's opinion doesn't jive with your own doesn't mean that they shouldn't be allowed to give it.

 

[bgbigdog]

Wow, AZ, I am impressed by your effort, but your math is very fuzzy. First of all you left four teams out of your calculation. The four squads you omitted have FBS facilities and money behind their program and played in FCS. They all have losing FBS records. If you want to pick and choose a team that compares the best to us, Idaho would be the most appropriate and as we all know, their results aren't pretty and we are 27-55-2 all time vs the Vandals. Idaho also won four more Big Sky titles than we did when we shared the same league.

According to your own data, there were 18 teams (not 17 as you reported) that had winning FCS records. After a move, their were 8 (not 9 as you reported) teams with winning records. This is with you leaving four teams out that played in FCS then moved to FBS. So, out of the 23 teams you provided, 8 had a winning FBS record, Using your data, that amounts to a 34.8% chance of a winning record. If you want to only consider winning FCS teams (once again omitting teams that made the jump to FBS), then we have a 44.4% chance of a winning record. So when you skew the data to your favor, it only resulted in LESS than half a chance of having a winning record. That is not an optimistic picture.

You also included Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in your winning records even though they have only played in the Sun Belt for a very short period and against 82% of the teams that were one time FCS, including two that were apparently so weak that you didn't even include them in your FCS to FBS calculations. New Mexico State (maybe the worst FBS team, although they beat Idaho) is also in that league. The MWC is far superior to the Sun Belt as long as you are comparing apples to apples. I think we could do well in the Sun Belt (they are mostly all former FCS teams), but I really don't want to move up and play there. The MWC is really the only viable option to move, and that league has all established FBS teams.

Our all time FCS record versus all the teams that have moved onto FBS isn't pretty either. We lost far more games than we won vs Boise, Idaho and Nevada. Not helping matters is the fact that only four teams that have moved up (out of 27) have FBS win percents above 60%.

And Soldier, quit being a hypocrite, You have no problem with AZ and others responding to posts, so quit acting like me doing the SAME thing is wrong. Just because someone's opinion doesn't jive with your own doesn't mean that they shouldn't be allowed to give it.

School teacher as well I see.

 

[NavyBlue]

Good Lord, the comparisons to Idaho. There must be a Pac-12 school in Lolo that UM is competing with that I am not aware of. UM has better facilities, is in a bigger town, and is easier to get to than Moscow, ID.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Wow, AZ, I am impressed by your effort, but your math is very fuzzy. First of all you left four teams out of your calculation. The four squads you omitted have FBS facilities and money behind their program and played in FCS. They all have losing FBS records. If you want to pick and choose a team that compares the best to us, Idaho would be the most appropriate and as we all know, their results aren't pretty and we are 27-55-2 all time vs the Vandals. Idaho also won four more Big Sky titles than we did when we shared the same league.

According to your own data, there were 18 teams (not 17 as you reported) that had winning FCS records. After a move, their were 8 (not 9 as you reported) teams with winning records. This is with you leaving four teams out that played in FCS then moved to FBS. So, out of the 23 teams you provided, 8 had a winning FBS record, Using your data, that amounts to a 34.8% chance of a winning record. If you want to only consider winning FCS teams (once again omitting teams that made the jump to FBS), then we have a 44.4% chance of a winning record. So when you skew the data to your favor, it only resulted in LESS than half a chance of having a winning record. That is not an optimistic picture.

You also included Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in your winning records even though they have only played in the Sun Belt for a very short period and against 82% of the teams that were one time FCS, including two that were apparently so weak that you didn't even include them in your FCS to FBS calculations. New Mexico State (maybe the worst FBS team, although they beat Idaho) is also in that league. The MWC is far superior to the Sun Belt as long as you are comparing apples to apples. I think we could do well in the Sun Belt (they are mostly all former FCS teams), but I really don't want to move up and play there. The MWC is really the only viable option to move, and that league has all established FBS teams.

Our all time FCS record versus all the teams that have moved onto FBS isn't pretty either. We lost far more games than we won vs Boise, Idaho and Nevada. Not helping matters is the fact that only four teams that have moved up (out of 27) have FBS win percents above 60%.

Who are the four I left out? If you want to include those schools who never had any intention of being I-AA to help yourself sleep at night, go ahead. You know and I know that schools like UTSA, Ga State, Charlotte and South Alabama never had any intention of being in or staying in I-AA. But whatever floats your boat.

And honestly, I couldn't care less what our alltime record is/was against teams that have subsequently moved up. That has about as much bearing on our ability to be successful at the next level as THEIR success does. :roll: :roll:

 

[Blue Tears]

Those 4 were in FCS and moved up. They all have FBS facilities and played in FCS. It seems pretty logical to count them. HOWEVER, I actually did NOT include them in the stats I shared, so you really can't make a big deal of it anyway. Even when not including those 4 teams, the win % for teams going from FCS to FBS simply isn't pretty. Like I indicated before, those teams win about 1 out of every 3 games. Only 3 of 23 teams improved their winning percentages upon moving, and two of those have only been in FBS for a very short time and play in the Sun Belt. Any way you cut it, competing to win in FBS would be a big concern. Maybe we would be the outlier, but it wouldn't be a smart bet.

 

[SoldierGriz]

Those 4 were in FCS and moved up. They all have FBS facilities and played in FCS. It seems pretty logical to count them. HOWEVER, I actually did NOT include them in the stats I shared, so you really can't make a big deal of it anyway. Even when not including those 4 teams, the win % for teams going from FCS to FBS simply isn't pretty. Like I indicated before, those teams win about 1 out of every 3 games. Only 3 of 23 teams improved their winning percentages upon moving, and two of those have only been in FBS for a very short time and play in the Sun Belt. Any way you cut it, competing to win in FBS would be a big concern. Maybe we would be the outlier, but it wouldn't be a smart bet.

I have no issue with your posts...you are making your points. It was just predictable that you would respond, which you did. I hope you keep posting. I also hope you realize there is a move up thread on here about twice a year, so this gets dissected frequently.

 

[get'em_griz]

Hmmm... Montana has an FBS-quality stadium, soon to have FBS-quality facilities, an FBS-sized fan base, but there's apparently no way we can win at the next level.

 

[NorthwestFresh]

Those 4 were in FCS and moved up. They all have FBS facilities and played in FCS. It seems pretty logical to count them. HOWEVER, I actually did NOT include them in the stats I shared, so you really can't make a big deal of it anyway. Even when not including those 4 teams, the win % for teams going from FCS to FBS simply isn't pretty. Like I indicated before, those teams win about 1 out of every 3 games. Only 3 of 23 teams improved their winning percentages upon moving, and two of those have only been in FBS for a very short time and play in the Sun Belt. Any way you cut it, competing to win in FBS would be a big concern. Maybe we would be the outlier, but it wouldn't be a smart bet.

Left out of your arguments is that the move-up advocates have deluded themselves into believing a solid conference like the MWC would be thrilled to have Missoula and NW Montana added as a market. That's not an insult, by the way, but only to let you know that you're not dealing with people who have realistic expectations. UM has the best stadium in FCS, the best fanbase, excellent facilities compared to peer programs, and still is not dominant at this level.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Those 4 were in FCS and moved up. They all have FBS facilities and played in FCS. It seems pretty logical to count them. HOWEVER, I actually did NOT include them in the stats I shared, so you really can't make a big deal of it anyway. Even when not including those 4 teams, the win % for teams going from FCS to FBS simply isn't pretty. Like I indicated before, those teams win about 1 out of every 3 games. Only 3 of 23 teams improved their winning percentages upon moving, and two of those have only been in FBS for a very short time and play in the Sun Belt. Any way you cut it, competing to win in FBS would be a big concern. Maybe we would be the outlier, but it wouldn't be a smart bet.

Left out of your arguments is that the move-up advocates have deluded themselves into believing a solid conference like the MWC would be thrilled to have Missoula and NW Montana added as a market. That's not an insult, by the way, but only to let you know that you're not dealing with people who have realistic expectations. UM has the best stadium in FCS, the best fanbase, excellent facilities compared to peer programs, and still is not dominant at this level.

Totally fabricated. MWC should be our ULTIMATE goal....I've made it very clear I'd accept a bid to the Sun Belt or C-USA or MAC to get UP, then position for a bid to MWC if realignment happens again. Nobody is "deluded" to think we're jumping straight to the MWC. Hell most of the teams currently IN the MWC didn't START in the MWC.

 

[bhumble]

Hmmm... Montana has an FBS-quality stadium, soon to have FBS-quality facilities, an FBS-sized fan base, but there's apparently no way we can win at the next level.

You struggle at FCS level. You would be another Idaho. But hey keep dreaming

 

[EverettGriz]

Hmmm... Montana has an FBS-quality stadium, soon to have FBS-quality facilities, an FBS-sized fan base, but there's apparently no way we can win at the next level.

You struggle at FCS level. You would be another Idaho. But hey keep dreaming

Success at the FCS level has little to no bearing on success at the FBS level. Facilities and fan support have FAR, FAR more relevance.

And is Montana really struggling at the FCS level? Huh. Someone should alert the papers.

 

[bhumble]

Hmmm... Montana has an FBS-quality stadium, soon to have FBS-quality facilities, an FBS-sized fan base, but there's apparently no way we can win at the next level.

You struggle at FCS level. You would be another Idaho. But hey keep dreaming

Success at the FCS level has little to no bearing on success at the FBS level. Facilities and fan support have FAR, FAR more relevance.

And is Montana really struggling at the FCS level? Huh. Someone should alert the papers.

Really? I guess it depends on your definition of success. :roll: :roll:

 

[UTGrizFan]

Everett is correct, level of success at the FCS level does not automatically mean it will be identical at the FBS level. Despite having an average year (where you're failing to take into account that it's a brand new coach in a brand new system who doesn't necessarily have all the types of players he needs) I guarantee Montana and even Montana State could compete with some of the lower tier teams in the MWC, Sun Belt, C-USA ect. Now add in more money and better recruits for moving up over the course of a few seasons and we would be right at home in the MWC.

 

[kemajic]

Hmmm... Montana has an FBS-quality stadium, soon to have FBS-quality facilities, an FBS-sized fan base, but there's apparently no way we can win at the next level.

You struggle at FCS level. You would be another Idaho. But hey keep dreaming

Success at the FCS level has little to no bearing on success at the FBS level. Facilities and fan support have FAR, FAR more relevance.

And is Montana really struggling at the FCS level? Huh. Someone should alert the papers.

Really? I guess it depends on your definition of success. :roll: :roll:

More it depends on your definition of "struggle." Find a year when Montana isn't nationally ranked, even this year. If you look close enough, you can find 2012; that's it. Still very close to the top in wins since 2000. 12 consecutive BSC championships; 7 trips to the NC game. Averaging 26,000 attendance. Yeah, we have a lot in common with Idaho. Horrible struggle.