grzz said:
This may be un(montana)patriotic of me to say, but the fact that MSU's roster is 50% Montana kids probably says a lot about where they are at right now. Seventy-eight D1 players from the state of Montana just doesn't seem statistically realistic. Not to mention a few other Montana kids that went to other D1 schools in the same age group.
There is no magic number. Coaches need to find the best that they can find in Montana and outside of Montana. I would be curious as to how many Montana starters the Griz had on either of their championship teams. I think we should probably be winning a few more of the battles to have a few more than four Montana starters, but I don't think 13 is the winning formula either.
The Bobcats are in the position they are in right now due to their out-of-state recruiting since 2012. Here are these four classes when they were announced. The interesting fact about these classes is that they don't include some of our current starters and/or "star" players. Chad Newell was a fall walk-on in 2012. Mac Bignell and Caleb Gillis (reserve lineman who has starting experience) were fall walk-ons in 2013.
2012: http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/sports/bobcats/montana-state-football-inks-new-recruits/article_6c3c2562-4d4a-11e1-91c1-001871e3ce6c.html
In 2012, it was a small class. Obvioulsy, we got some all-time Bobcats in this class with Dakota, JP, and Chad (who wasn't even in the normal class) along with starters/contributors in TE Austin Barth and MLB Fletcher Collins. In this class, we thought we had found our future replacement to Zach Minter in DT Kris Cooper. He barely made it a year at MSU from what I know. JP's fellow lineman recruits, Doug Hanson and Marshall Womack, never could add enough wait and both ended up retiring from football/leaving the team. Texas DE Zach Hutchins had a high ceiling and was looking like a future stud pass rusher his sophomore season but injuries and position changes hurt his career and he had to retire before this season. LB Fe'ao Vunipola was arguably the best recruit on paper we had in this class but he only made it two years before transferring to a JUCO. In 2012, 3 of the 10 scholarship players announced on signing day (I think Mahlum and one of the kickers were PWO's) finished their careers as Bobcats.
2013: http://www.msubobcats.com/news/2013/2/6/FB_0206132044.aspx
In 2013, we landed some talented in-state players in Gatorade POY Gunnar Brekke, AA Defensive Players of the Year Devin Jeffries, All-State OT Dylan Mahoney, and All-State QB Quinn McQueary. We also landed a diamond in the rough in Mac Bignell as a fall walk-on. But as of right now, only Brekke, Bignell, and Mahoney have been major contributors as Devin has been ravaged by injuries and McQueary transferred to MT Tech. Again we had thought we found our replacement to Zach Minter in DT Dallas Hayes and again he didn't make it a year on the team. Tragedy struck prior to fall camp as star OT recruit Folabi Akanbi from Texas passed away unexpectedly while playing basketball. Blake Braun and Wyatt Christensen were two very good linebacker recruits who both made a talented Bobcat two-deep their freshman year but both went down with injuries their true freshman season and never really recovered. Blake started last year with mixed results and Wyatt retired after another surgery in the offseason. Blake retired on 11/14/16 due to concussion problems while also being surpassed in the starting lineup by redshirt freshman Josh Hill. Out of the 12 full-ride kids in this class, only six are on track to finish their careers as Bobcats. Out of the 18 scholarship kids (full-rides/partials) announced on signing day, only seven are on track to finish their careers as Bobcats.
2014: http://www.msubobcats.com/news/2014/2/5/FB_0205143241.aspx
This was a class that a lot of people regarded as the "next best class" at MSU. Most of these guys are now redshirt sophomores who are either starters or contributors (two-deep or special teams). 17 freshman were brought in as full scholarship players while two freshman got half-rides (Oldenburger and Thompson). Three transfer players were announced on signing day as full-rides: Bryson Keeton, Anthony Knight, and Wawa Leota. Keeton started two years at corner with mixed results, Knight had a decent junior season before getting kicked off the team for assault prior to his senior season, and Leota didn't qualify academically prior to making it to MSU. Garrett Marino, Mitch Herbert, Justin Paige, and Tyrone Fa'anono were four true freshman who made the two-deep their first year. The much publicized Marino signing only last half a season as he was kicked off the team before November. Herbert and Paige were two key cogs in the Prukop/Cramsey offense their first two years but have now had to take Chris Murray's true freshman season in stride as he grows. Fa'anono was by far our best returning defensive lineman this year but he got injured prior to the 2016 season starting. He will be a redshirt junior when he returns next season as he had not used it yet in his career. Out of the 22 scholarship players announced in this class, 11 are still on pace to finish their careers as Cats (Keeton graduated last year).
2015: http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.com/msubobcats.com/documents/2015/2/6/FB_Recruiting_15_List.pdf?id=1958
This class was highlighted by eight transfers, including seven on scholarship (Brown was a walk-on). You can debate that only two of those transfers have made an impact as Bryson McCabe is one of our best defensive players and Jessie Clark is a decent situational pass rusher. DE Shiloh LaBoy was poised to have a big year in 2016 but he suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp along with Fa'anono and Jeffries which crushed our defensive line depth before the season even started. Des Carter graduated last year and he was a member of a 2015 defense that was statistically one of the worst in MSU history. Zach Stern was a "tweener" at 200 lbs. and injuries basically reduced role on defense for the Cats in his two years as a transfer. Other scholarship transfers in Marcus Tappan (cut) and Joe Naotala (quit) are no longer with the team. Since most of these players are redshirt freshman this year, there is still a lot left for them to accomplish. However, already four of the major recruits in this class (Jordan Hoy, Chris Robinson, Sidney Holmes, and Sam Plucker) are no longer with the team for various reasons. This class is likely to suffer more attrition as Choate continues to improve the Bobcat roster. This class was technically Ash's last recruiting class. Out of the 11 full-ride kids, 7 are still with the team. The only partial scholarship gone is Robert Evans who was actually never even part of the class as he decided not to attend MSU prior to his first fall camp.
Throughout these four years of classes, there was an alarming trend of attrition that happened. In my opinion, the trend was alarming because most of the attrition was happening with full scholarship players simply just leaving the team a few years into their career. When you offer a scholarship to a kid, those have to be considered your best investments where you have put a good amount of research and resources into. Our 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes have directly led to us having a lack of quality, experienced depth at several positions on both sides of the ball. If you want to win, you have to recruit well and you especially have to have a better attrition rate on full scholarship kids.
