grizzlyjournal
Well-known member
Do the Montana Grizzlies have a (ghost of a) chance for a win at Pitt tonight?
Despite the odds of beating a major college team on their home court, Travis DeCuire’s players love the challenge of getting just that opportunity... not once, but five times this season. They’ve gotten close... but several Montana teams over the years have gotten close. The few Griz wins against major opponents over the years are rare: a couple against Stanford and Washington and one over Kansas in the mid-80s. Other big wins usually came against favored but “beat-able” teams (the most recent a 2010 home court win over Oregon State).
This season offers some intrigue. The Griz will face a Washington team in transition later this year. Stanford struggled last night against Pacific. But on paper, Montana’s game against Pitt tonight might represent the Grizzlies’ best chance for a win.
I’ve subscribed to the Kenpom.com Advanced Analysis of College Basketball over the past five years and have found it to be the best analytical “predictor” I’ve followed.
Last week’s KenPom ratings raised an eyebrow. Their pre-season rankings had Pitt ranked 121, somewhat lower than its normal “Top 100” yearly residence. Montana was ranked 153, perhaps inflated a bit now because of Donaven Dorsey’s inability to play.
Some intrigue: Ranked at 154 (1 behind Montana), Navy proceeded to beat Pitt by 9 on Navy's home court last Saturday. Navy then traveled to Miami and lost by 34... dropping to 168, while Pitt slid four slots to 125.
The statistical analysts here can speculate. To me, it indicates that the Griz -- on paper -- have a team capable of playing with the young Panthers. There are so many other factors (the bright lights, the officiating etc.).
Who knows? KenPom predicts a 75-70 Pitt win tonight. I’ll take those odds any time.
Go Griz...
Despite the odds of beating a major college team on their home court, Travis DeCuire’s players love the challenge of getting just that opportunity... not once, but five times this season. They’ve gotten close... but several Montana teams over the years have gotten close. The few Griz wins against major opponents over the years are rare: a couple against Stanford and Washington and one over Kansas in the mid-80s. Other big wins usually came against favored but “beat-able” teams (the most recent a 2010 home court win over Oregon State).
This season offers some intrigue. The Griz will face a Washington team in transition later this year. Stanford struggled last night against Pacific. But on paper, Montana’s game against Pitt tonight might represent the Grizzlies’ best chance for a win.
I’ve subscribed to the Kenpom.com Advanced Analysis of College Basketball over the past five years and have found it to be the best analytical “predictor” I’ve followed.
Last week’s KenPom ratings raised an eyebrow. Their pre-season rankings had Pitt ranked 121, somewhat lower than its normal “Top 100” yearly residence. Montana was ranked 153, perhaps inflated a bit now because of Donaven Dorsey’s inability to play.
Some intrigue: Ranked at 154 (1 behind Montana), Navy proceeded to beat Pitt by 9 on Navy's home court last Saturday. Navy then traveled to Miami and lost by 34... dropping to 168, while Pitt slid four slots to 125.
The statistical analysts here can speculate. To me, it indicates that the Griz -- on paper -- have a team capable of playing with the young Panthers. There are so many other factors (the bright lights, the officiating etc.).
Who knows? KenPom predicts a 75-70 Pitt win tonight. I’ll take those odds any time.
Go Griz...