This is for the mens team, I'll reply with the women later on.
The Big Sky is eyeing a 16 seed this year. They could eke out a 15, but there really aren't any hopes for higher than that. The only way somebody jumps to a 14 seed is if they win out in conference.
Here's the RPIs midway through the season (when some say RPI is the most reliable because the conference strength/weakness hasn't made its influence yet).
RPI................................................SOS
121) Idaho State............................18
156) Weber State..........................208
180) Portland State.......................281
181) Eastern Washington.............103
208) Montana................................164
236) Northern Arizona...................212
276) Sacramento State..................312
280) Montana State.......................196
336) Northern Colorado.................330
Once again, the recent addition rears its ugly head as the worst team in Division I. Northern Colorado is really going to hurt the RPIs from this point (since they only have 1 D-I win and each BSC team will have to count them twice), I have a hard time seeing anybody finishing above 125.
Conference tournament upsets are the only realistic hopes at this point to avoid that dreaded #1 seed matchup. I think the BCS will avoid the play-in game though.
Idaho State:
Played a very tough non-conference schedule and just about pulled off two upsets (losing in OT 56-69 to Marquette and 71-60 to Illinois). They also played BYU and Washington State tight. Unfortunately, they also got blown out a few times at Texas A&M, Utah State and Oregon.
I think that Idaho State is the best team in the conference if they play up to potential. If they are able to get some consistency going in conference, they will be the cream of the BCS this year. Just as easily, they could stumble and disappoint.
Best Win: (155) Utah Valley State
Worst Loss: (128) @ Boise State
Weber State:
This is a tough team to read at this point seeing as how they really haven't played anybody. They played 3 non D-I opponents (escaping AK-Anchorage in OT), embellishing their 9-6 record. The only thing I'm confident in saying about this team is that they match up well against Portland (beating them by double digits twice already). The rest of their wins have all been close.
I see Weber as a .500 team in the BSC. They're going to get some good wins, but they're also going to drop some they shouldn't. I think this a pesky team that knocks a good team out of the playoffs, but can't win the whole thing themselves.
Best Win: (218) Troy
Worst Loss: (167) Utah
Portland State:
Well they played Oregon, Gonzaga and Washington - and their SOS is still 281. That should tell you why they have the most wins in the BSC at this point. Blown out badly against those 3 teams (and CS-Northridge too), and took care of their cupcakes.
Portland State has size that will help them in conference play, they also have some confidence in a winning record (which few BSC teams can claim). Montana's road win was big, as it could come down to a tie-breaker with these two teams.
Best Win: (155) Utah Valley State
Worst Loss: (170) CS Northridge
Eastern Washington:
EWU's schedule would have been much better if they would have dropped a non D-I team or two for an easy D-I team. They played a decent schedule (not counting the 3 non D-I teams), with no gimme's and a few tough games. Oregon is really the only game they weren't competitive in, and Stuckey didn't play but 4 minutes in that game.
If Stuckey stays healthy, this team is the favorite. He automatically makes that team competitive against any team in the nation. The problem is that they can't stop anybody. Stuckey can get the team to 80 points a game, but the defense allows just as much (see MSU loss).
Best Win: (178) CS Fullerton
Worst Loss: (170) CS Northridge
Montana:
They played a decent schedule, but lost a few games that they should have won. They really haven't had a breakout game against a quality opponent, and seem to play down to the opposition. They did enough to win a few games, but there's just a feeling that this team is underacheiving (and they've got the BSC's two best wins thus far).
This a raw team. Strait is a great post player who should contribute consistently, but he's about all you can count on. Lots of talent on this team, but the drive and leadership are still lacking. There have been signs of improvement, but there's still a ways to go. This team can win games on its talent alone and pose some tough matchups for just about everybody else in the BSC.
Best Win: (128) Boise State
Worst Loss: (281) Portland
Northern Arizona:
Can you say overrated? I said this last year, and I still say they weren't very good last year. (Did you see what they did against Delaware State in their last game?) They played a pretty weak schedule so far, and didn't do much to show why they were picked to win the conference - much like Montana. 20 point losses to Pepperdine (202) and Cal Poly (286) aren't gonna cut it.
They'll get wins at home because of the environment (or rather the lack thereof). They'll also win a few when they catch fire and shoot the lights out. Playoff basketball is about defense though, and NAU doesn't have the team to take the BSC auto-bid.
Best Win: (216) San Francisco
Worst Loss: (286) Cal Poly
Sacramento State:
Played one of the worst schedules in D-I and only got 3 D-I wins (2 of which were against 300+ RPI teams). The other was a last second OT shot against a down Pacific team. They've lost 7 of their games by at least 14 points already.
You can recruit all the talent you want, but if you don't play as a team it doesn't matter. I'm sure Sacramento State will get a few wins off of their talent alone - and when they catch a team on an off night. Coach - you can't subsitute guys in and out every minute. Players - this isn't the NBA. I really think CSUS is a good coach away from becoming a strong mid-major.
Best Win: (206) Pacific
Worst Loss: (216) San Francisco
Montana State:
Gotta give credit to MSU for not scheduling an absolute cake schedule, knowing that there are some major holes in the lineup. They didn't play anybody outstanding, but they did a good job of going up against decent teams night in and out. But they only got 1 D-I win against that schedule.
They struggled thus far, and its hard to see that changing. They shot the lights out against EWU, but how often is that going to happen when you're constantly overmatched? They have to grind this season out and hopefully Huse can get something going in the future.
Best Win: (309) Idaho
Worst Loss: (332) South Dakota State
Northern Colorado:
Guuaaah. I'd just like to say great job to Fullerton once again on this superb pick up. Okay, they opened up the season with a 81-42 loss to Ball State. At least they've been improving since then. They've basically played everybody to 10 points since opening weekend.
They seem to be improving and had a competitive first weekend in the BSC. Too bad they couldn't have been competitive earlier. All they are going to do is drag down everybody's RPI throughout the year. Somebody is going to lose to the Bears though, and that's going to sting.
Best Win: (335) Denver
Worst Loss: (335) Denver
CONFERENCE PREDICTION:
Montana......................(12-4)
Eastern Washington....(12-4)
Idaho State.................(11-5)
Portland State.............(10-6)
Weber State................(9-7)
Northern Arizona..........(8-8)
Sacramento State.........(6-10)
Montana State..............(3-13)
Northern Colorado........(1-15)
The Big Sky is eyeing a 16 seed this year. They could eke out a 15, but there really aren't any hopes for higher than that. The only way somebody jumps to a 14 seed is if they win out in conference.
Here's the RPIs midway through the season (when some say RPI is the most reliable because the conference strength/weakness hasn't made its influence yet).
RPI................................................SOS
121) Idaho State............................18
156) Weber State..........................208
180) Portland State.......................281
181) Eastern Washington.............103
208) Montana................................164
236) Northern Arizona...................212
276) Sacramento State..................312
280) Montana State.......................196
336) Northern Colorado.................330
Once again, the recent addition rears its ugly head as the worst team in Division I. Northern Colorado is really going to hurt the RPIs from this point (since they only have 1 D-I win and each BSC team will have to count them twice), I have a hard time seeing anybody finishing above 125.
Conference tournament upsets are the only realistic hopes at this point to avoid that dreaded #1 seed matchup. I think the BCS will avoid the play-in game though.
Idaho State:
Played a very tough non-conference schedule and just about pulled off two upsets (losing in OT 56-69 to Marquette and 71-60 to Illinois). They also played BYU and Washington State tight. Unfortunately, they also got blown out a few times at Texas A&M, Utah State and Oregon.
I think that Idaho State is the best team in the conference if they play up to potential. If they are able to get some consistency going in conference, they will be the cream of the BCS this year. Just as easily, they could stumble and disappoint.
Best Win: (155) Utah Valley State
Worst Loss: (128) @ Boise State
Weber State:
This is a tough team to read at this point seeing as how they really haven't played anybody. They played 3 non D-I opponents (escaping AK-Anchorage in OT), embellishing their 9-6 record. The only thing I'm confident in saying about this team is that they match up well against Portland (beating them by double digits twice already). The rest of their wins have all been close.
I see Weber as a .500 team in the BSC. They're going to get some good wins, but they're also going to drop some they shouldn't. I think this a pesky team that knocks a good team out of the playoffs, but can't win the whole thing themselves.
Best Win: (218) Troy
Worst Loss: (167) Utah
Portland State:
Well they played Oregon, Gonzaga and Washington - and their SOS is still 281. That should tell you why they have the most wins in the BSC at this point. Blown out badly against those 3 teams (and CS-Northridge too), and took care of their cupcakes.
Portland State has size that will help them in conference play, they also have some confidence in a winning record (which few BSC teams can claim). Montana's road win was big, as it could come down to a tie-breaker with these two teams.
Best Win: (155) Utah Valley State
Worst Loss: (170) CS Northridge
Eastern Washington:
EWU's schedule would have been much better if they would have dropped a non D-I team or two for an easy D-I team. They played a decent schedule (not counting the 3 non D-I teams), with no gimme's and a few tough games. Oregon is really the only game they weren't competitive in, and Stuckey didn't play but 4 minutes in that game.
If Stuckey stays healthy, this team is the favorite. He automatically makes that team competitive against any team in the nation. The problem is that they can't stop anybody. Stuckey can get the team to 80 points a game, but the defense allows just as much (see MSU loss).
Best Win: (178) CS Fullerton
Worst Loss: (170) CS Northridge
Montana:
They played a decent schedule, but lost a few games that they should have won. They really haven't had a breakout game against a quality opponent, and seem to play down to the opposition. They did enough to win a few games, but there's just a feeling that this team is underacheiving (and they've got the BSC's two best wins thus far).
This a raw team. Strait is a great post player who should contribute consistently, but he's about all you can count on. Lots of talent on this team, but the drive and leadership are still lacking. There have been signs of improvement, but there's still a ways to go. This team can win games on its talent alone and pose some tough matchups for just about everybody else in the BSC.
Best Win: (128) Boise State
Worst Loss: (281) Portland
Northern Arizona:
Can you say overrated? I said this last year, and I still say they weren't very good last year. (Did you see what they did against Delaware State in their last game?) They played a pretty weak schedule so far, and didn't do much to show why they were picked to win the conference - much like Montana. 20 point losses to Pepperdine (202) and Cal Poly (286) aren't gonna cut it.
They'll get wins at home because of the environment (or rather the lack thereof). They'll also win a few when they catch fire and shoot the lights out. Playoff basketball is about defense though, and NAU doesn't have the team to take the BSC auto-bid.
Best Win: (216) San Francisco
Worst Loss: (286) Cal Poly
Sacramento State:
Played one of the worst schedules in D-I and only got 3 D-I wins (2 of which were against 300+ RPI teams). The other was a last second OT shot against a down Pacific team. They've lost 7 of their games by at least 14 points already.
You can recruit all the talent you want, but if you don't play as a team it doesn't matter. I'm sure Sacramento State will get a few wins off of their talent alone - and when they catch a team on an off night. Coach - you can't subsitute guys in and out every minute. Players - this isn't the NBA. I really think CSUS is a good coach away from becoming a strong mid-major.
Best Win: (206) Pacific
Worst Loss: (216) San Francisco
Montana State:
Gotta give credit to MSU for not scheduling an absolute cake schedule, knowing that there are some major holes in the lineup. They didn't play anybody outstanding, but they did a good job of going up against decent teams night in and out. But they only got 1 D-I win against that schedule.
They struggled thus far, and its hard to see that changing. They shot the lights out against EWU, but how often is that going to happen when you're constantly overmatched? They have to grind this season out and hopefully Huse can get something going in the future.
Best Win: (309) Idaho
Worst Loss: (332) South Dakota State
Northern Colorado:
Guuaaah. I'd just like to say great job to Fullerton once again on this superb pick up. Okay, they opened up the season with a 81-42 loss to Ball State. At least they've been improving since then. They've basically played everybody to 10 points since opening weekend.
They seem to be improving and had a competitive first weekend in the BSC. Too bad they couldn't have been competitive earlier. All they are going to do is drag down everybody's RPI throughout the year. Somebody is going to lose to the Bears though, and that's going to sting.
Best Win: (335) Denver
Worst Loss: (335) Denver
CONFERENCE PREDICTION:
Montana......................(12-4)
Eastern Washington....(12-4)
Idaho State.................(11-5)
Portland State.............(10-6)
Weber State................(9-7)
Northern Arizona..........(8-8)
Sacramento State.........(6-10)
Montana State..............(3-13)
Northern Colorado........(1-15)