Let's talk about the game

[AZGrizFan]

How many common opponents? Because statistics piled up against uncommon opponents really don’t mean squat. In fact, statistics in general don’t mean squat. In many of the Griz games, a large percentage of the yardage was gained by the opposing offense late in the game. And when you have the top rushing defense in the conference, yeah, they’re gonna try SOMETHING to win…

That’ last bit is somewhat quizzical. The Griz gave up a large amount of pass yardage late in the game due to other teams trying to come back, makes sense. But is the top rushing defense in the conference really a thing? I mean I know it is statistically and the Griz rush D is stout…but opponents passing more takes away rush attempts…or are opponents not rushing because…its why you see the Jacks with similar stats defensively. Big lead, teams try to play catch up, turnovers/sacks, and we end up with 2 teams with a combined record of 27-1. Neither team played from behind very many minutes this season.

At this point we are seeing what the FCS generally brings to the championship. Two teams with strong defenses. Tough to find holes in either teams game at this point.

It’s why I’ll say the FCS is my favorite level of football to watch.

Agreed on all that. That’s why I think statistics only tell a very small part of the story. When the two teams playing are 13-1 and 14-0, and have exactly TWO common opponents, I just don’t think they mean much. It’d almost be more productive to look at individual matchups—and even that might not tell a whole lot. I don’t think there’s any doubt both teams got better as the season progressed…for example I don’t think the MSU game is a one score game for y’all if it’s played in week 8/9/10/11…

 

[armonte]

So 7 on offense and defense, I think the game will be closer than most people think. If we don't screw up in last 2 games with leaving
points on the field. I know both teams will know they have played a game!

Are the jacks senior or grad dominated in the O and D overall? NDSU according to their roster had 11 of 13 (listed 13 positions) on the offense and 9 of 11
on defense. Outside question, was the NDSU game you played against them as good as or better than the one we played? I understand it very subjective, just looking for an opinion.

The offense will lose 3 on the OL, 2 WR, a TE and a RB(Davis forgoing his final year for the Draft.

D will lose 3 on the DL, 2 LBs, a CB and a Safety I believe.

The Bison game for the Jacks was close for a quarter then opened up in the 2nd and 3rd. It wax 30-9 with 7 min to go in the 4th when the Bison scored to make it 30-16, the Jacks then kicked a FG with just under 2 min to extend and solidly the win. As always the Marker game is about the trenches. Whoever wins there wins the game.

Statistically the game was pretty even except for turnovers where the Jacks picked off Miller twice.

 

[IdaGriz01]

So 7 on offense and defense, I think the game will be closer than most people think If we don't screw up [like] in last 2 games with leaving points on the field. I know both teams will know they have played a game!
...

I tend to agree. With all the prep time (for both teams, obviously), the defenses will have every major tendency of the offenses locked in. Even with that "extra" time, you do not make a major overhaul in the offense that got you this far. If it comes down to Special Team, then I give the edge to the Griz (but not by much, because SDSU is sound in all phases). Here's my hope: We've yet to see a full breakout game from McDowell, where he's run wild while passing selectively and well. We've seen flashes, so we know (think) he has it in him. That would be SO sweet.

 

[Jackedforlife]

If you haven’t followed any Jackrabbit accounts to learn more I’ll suggest a few.

Jackrabbit Illustrated(blog and pods), really good content. I know some Griz don’t care for them, they are Jacks fans but do a relatively good job of being impartial. Plus if you get a chance come mingle at the tailgate they are putting on Sunday before the game.

Here is the latest blog. I know the prediction will rub many of you the wrong way. Feel free to bristle about it but Matt is a great guy. This enterprise is something he started because he’s passionate. Bringing in the other guys has elevated it.

https://jackrabbitillustrated.com/2024/01/know-your-foe-montana/

Splitting Hares podcast with Kyle Sheehan and Thomas Stacker as former players really cover x’s & o’s quite well.

Matt Zimmer is a beat writer for Sioux Falls Live. He and John Gaskins do a podcast and it’ll cover some Jacks stuff.

https://www.siouxfallslive.com/sports/college/what-to-know-about-the-fcs-national-championship-between-montana-and-south-dakota-state

Tanner Castora is a free lance journalist with both video and written content.

Zach Borg is a sports caster with local affiliates of NBC, ABC and I believe fox.

 

[bigkid]

Championship teams win close games against good teams. We have proved that unless of course people don’t think Furman and NDSU are good teams. There was a lot crow being eaten by a lot of people the last few months(including Griz fans) so I ask the question to Homer Matt.”what would like to drink while feasting on that helping of crow?”
You’re University of Montana Grizzlies……27
sdsu jackrabbits……….23

Go Griz!

 

[Jackedforlife]

Championship teams win close games against good teams. We have proved that unless of course people don’t think Furman and NDSU are good teams. There was a lot crow being eaten by a lot of people the last few months(including Griz fans) so I ask the question to Homer Matt.”what would like to drink while feasting on that helping of crow?”
You’re University of Montana Grizzlies……27
sdsu jackrabbits……….23

Go Griz!

Truth, so in turn the close games against the Bobcats, Saluki’s and even Villanova the Jacks played support that. Glad we can all agree.

Honestly, the prediction can be upsetting to Griz fans but honestly if the roles were reversed I wouldn’t spout anything until after the game.

Both teams are very good. I think both fanbases can agree on that. Griz fans can be confident as can Jacks fans. It 95 I believe when the Griz shocked everyone in the natty, right? In 2007 the Jacks shocked a top ranked undefeated Bison team that was not FCS eligible but rumored to be getting a bowl invite. Garnering top 25 FBS votes as well I believe.

It’s why the game is played. If SDSU wins it’ll all come together as expected. If the Griz win it’ll be an upset, surprise a lot of people but not sure it’ll be a complete shock. Especially with as well as they’ve been playing.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Championship teams win close games against good teams. We have proved that unless of course people don’t think Furman and NDSU are good teams. There was a lot crow being eaten by a lot of people the last few months(including Griz fans) so I ask the question to Homer Matt.”what would like to drink while feasting on that helping of crow?”
You’re University of Montana Grizzlies……27
sdsu jackrabbits……….23

Go Griz!

Truth, so in turn the close games against the Bobcats, Saluki’s and even Villanova the Jacks played support that. Glad we can all agree.

Honestly, the prediction can be upsetting to Griz fans but honestly if the roles were reversed I wouldn’t spout anything until after the game.

Both teams are very good. I think both fanbases can agree on that. Griz fans can be confident as can Jacks fans. It 95 I believe when the Griz shocked everyone in the natty, right? In 2007 the Jacks shocked a top ranked undefeated Bison team that was not FCS eligible but rumored to be getting a bowl invite. Garnering top 25 FBS votes as well I believe.

It’s why the game is played. If SDSU wins it’ll all come together as expected. If the Griz win it’ll be an upset, surprise a lot of people but not sure it’ll be a complete shock. Especially with as well as they’ve been playing.

Nope. Won’t be a shock to me. Honestly I think the fairly easy walk y’all have had thorough the playoffs didn’t do y’all any favors. In fact, y’all haven’t been in a really close game since SIU, and that game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated.

That could mean you just “that good”, or it could mean that if you DO get into a slugfest, you guys won’t quite know how to respond…

 

[Jackedforlife]

Truth, so in turn the close games against the Bobcats, Saluki’s and even Villanova the Jacks played support that. Glad we can all agree.

Honestly, the prediction can be upsetting to Griz fans but honestly if the roles were reversed I wouldn’t spout anything until after the game.

Both teams are very good. I think both fanbases can agree on that. Griz fans can be confident as can Jacks fans. It 95 I believe when the Griz shocked everyone in the natty, right? In 2007 the Jacks shocked a top ranked undefeated Bison team that was not FCS eligible but rumored to be getting a bowl invite. Garnering top 25 FBS votes as well I believe.

It’s why the game is played. If SDSU wins it’ll all come together as expected. If the Griz win it’ll be an upset, surprise a lot of people but not sure it’ll be a complete shock. Especially with as well as they’ve been playing.

Nope. Won’t be a shock to me. Honestly I think the fairly easy walk y’all have had thorough the playoffs didn’t do y’all any favors. In fact, y’all haven’t been in a really close game since SIU, and that game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated.

Was it an easy walk or are the Jacks just that good?

I mean in the 2022 playoffs Holy Cross kept it close(21-21 at the end of the 3rd) but that ended with a 3 score win. Slugfests have been had this season and last. Other than the 2 safety(punter MVP) 7-3 loss to Iowa in 2022 this crew seems to embrace the slugfest.

The team seems to turn it up a notch in the playoffs.

Going to be a lot of fun this Sunday regardless.

 

[bigkid]

There’s only a few things I really know about this game. Both teams have good coaches and both teams have good players. My hope is the refs don’t involve themselves to a “turning point “ and no significant injuries. As far as stats and such….throw em out the window. They don’t matter anymore.

Go Griz!

 

[mtgrizrule]

I haven't read through the posts here.
I feel the weather will help McDowell's accuracy on 15 yard + passes. Plus, the few weeks to prepare will help get McDowell and the WRs on the same page again. At worse, Cliff gets back to simply throwing the ball away under pressure. At mid season, he did little things like that well, not so much the last few games.

I expect SDSU will dare the GRIZ to throw deep. There's definitely going to be multiple opportunities for long passes.

Defensively, I honestly feel the GRIZ will hold them under 30. I'm thinking mid 20s. We just need to keep them from dominating time of possession.

This game comes down to how well the GRIZ take advantage of the opportunities they'll have through the air.

I'm expecting, it'll take 27 to 28 points to win this one.

 

[Jackedforlife]

I can see every scenario playing out

A defensive slugfest ending in a 13-10 type

A shootout ala 45-38

Either team breaking away

Weather looks to be gorgeous mid 50s with winds in the15-20 range. Shouldn’t impact passing that much.

 

[EverettGriz]

If you haven’t followed any Jackrabbit accounts to learn more I’ll suggest a few.

Jackrabbit Illustrated(blog and pods), really good content. I know some Griz don’t care for them, they are Jacks fans but do a relatively good job of being impartial. Plus if you get a chance come mingle at the tailgate they are putting on Sunday before the game.

Here is the latest blog. I know the prediction will rub many of you the wrong way. Feel free to bristle about it but Matt is a great guy. This enterprise is something he started because he’s passionate. Bringing in the other guys has elevated it.

https://jackrabbitillustrated.com/2024/01/know-your-foe-montana/

Splitting Hares podcast with Kyle Sheehan and Thomas Stacker as former players really cover x’s & o’s quite well.

Matt Zimmer is a beat writer for Sioux Falls Live. He and John Gaskins do a podcast and it’ll cover some Jacks stuff.

https://www.siouxfallslive.com/sports/college/what-to-know-about-the-fcs-national-championship-between-montana-and-south-dakota-state

Tanner Castora is a free lance journalist with both video and written content.

Zach Borg is a sports caster with local affiliates of NBC, ABC and I believe fox.

This Matt guy has done his homework. A complete and mostly accurate rundown of the GRIZ and their season. Impressive work.

But to be taken seriously you have to show SOME level of objectivity. 21 points? Cmon. No way in hell he wagers even ten bucks on the rabbits with that kind of a line. And if he’s truly stupid enough to do so, please pass along my contact info.. EG’s nonexistent kid needs a new pair of shoes.

 

[montanaguy]

I tend to agree. With all the prep time (for both teams, obviously), the defenses will have every major tendency of the offenses locked in. Even with that "extra" time, you do not make a major overhaul in the offense that got you this far. If it comes down to Special Team, then I give the edge to the Griz (but not by much, because SDSU is sound in all phases). Here's my hope: We've yet to see a full breakout game from McDowell, where he's run wild while passing selectively and well. We've seen flashes, so we know (think) he has it in him. That would be SO sweet.

I don’t have the great game memory some do but wasn’t there a playoff game once when a dominant ground and pound team surprised us with a lot of triple-option looks? Or maybe I have that reversed?

 

[Jackedforlife]

What’s not being objective about that prediction? The Griz only scoring 10? The Jacks scoring over 25pts? The spread itself?

He's watched the Jacks D, he knows how potent the offense is. Honestly in regulation the Griz offense hasn’t lit it up. Bergen/ST is a difference maker. Odds are SDSU will do all they can to mitigate that. Remember, our HC ended his playing career in Missoula in a classic comeback. Who was a main component in that comeback? Marc Mariani sparked that with a 98 yd kickoff return TD.

So place all the bets against the spread, o/u, and who will win. Most Jackrabbit fans will be betting the other way. Beauty of each fanbase being confident in their team. Some will be able to buy their kids shoes, others will deal with the frostbite,

 

[EverettGriz]

What’s not being objective about that prediction? The Griz only scoring 10? The Jacks scoring over 25pts? The spread itself?

He's watched the Jacks D, he knows how potent the offense is. Honestly in regulation the Griz offense hasn’t lit it up. Bergen/ST is a difference maker. Odds are SDSU will do all they can to mitigate that. Remember, our HC ended his playing career in Missoula in a classic comeback. Who was a main component in that comeback? Marc Mariani sparked that with a 98 yd kickoff return TD.

So place all the bets against the spread, o/u, and who will win. Most Jackrabbit fans will be betting the other way. Beauty of each fanbase being confident in their team. Some will be able to buy their kids shoes, others will deal with the frostbite,

If anyone is really stupid enough to give me 21 points, I’ll take all-comers, minimum wager of $5000. You in Jack?

 

[Jackedforlife]

What’s not being objective about that prediction? The Griz only scoring 10? The Jacks scoring over 25pts? The spread itself?

He's watched the Jacks D, he knows how potent the offense is. Honestly in regulation the Griz offense hasn’t lit it up. Bergen/ST is a difference maker. Odds are SDSU will do all they can to mitigate that. Remember, our HC ended his playing career in Missoula in a classic comeback. Who was a main component in that comeback? Marc Mariani sparked that with a 98 yd kickoff return TD.

So place all the bets against the spread, o/u, and who will win. Most Jackrabbit fans will be betting the other way. Beauty of each fanbase being confident in their team. Some will be able to buy their kids shoes, others will deal with the frostbite,

If anyone is really stupid enough to give me 21 points, I’ll take all-comers, minimum wager of $5000. You in Jack?

I said most Jackrabbit fans will bet the spread which I believe sits at -13 for the Jacks.

Not a gambling man myself, but I’d give 21 points in a steak meal or a fine bottle of bourbon.

 

[EverettGriz]

One, big margin between 13 and 21. Two, I’m not sure all that many sdsu fans are giving the points. The spread has moved down, not up. Three, it’s not worth the hassle to bet small amounts, but my offer stands if Matt is interested in putting his wallet where his sdsu colored glasses are.

 

[Jackedforlife]

One, big margin between 13 and 21. Two, I’m not sure all that many sdsu fans are giving the points. The spread has moved down, not up. Three, it’s not worth the hassle to bet small amounts, but my offer stands if Matt is interested in putting his wallet where his sdsu colored glasses are.

Also a big difference between betting a spread and predicting the score. Matt is far from a gambler or handicapper. The spread hasn’t moved a ton so I’ll say that the larger fanbase betting the spread and on the Griz.

There are guys on the JI team that understand betting/handicapping more, mainly Ben, Brendan, Chad and Alex. They’ll likely even do a pod this week regarding it.

I thought the MSU game earlier this season would be a blowout win for the Jacks, I was wrong. Then again they wore black uni’s and they seem to be cursed, doubt those make it to Frisco. I also thought the Albany semi final would be neck and neck, wrong again.

 

[EverettGriz]

One, big margin between 13 and 21. Two, I’m not sure all that many sdsu fans are giving the points. The spread has moved down, not up. Three, it’s not worth the hassle to bet small amounts, but my offer stands if Matt is interested in putting his wallet where his sdsu colored glasses are.

Also a big difference between betting a spread and predicting the score. Matt is far from a gambler or handicapper. The spread hasn’t moved a ton so I’ll say that the larger fanbase betting the spread and on the Griz.

There are guys on the JI team that understand betting/handicapping more, mainly Ben, Brendan, Chad and Alex. They’ll likely even do a pod this week regarding it.

I thought the MSU game earlier this season would be a blowout win for the Jacks, I was wrong. Then again they wore black uni’s and they seem to be cursed, doubt those make it to Frisco. I also thought the Albany semi final would be neck and neck, wrong again.

And this is where the “objectivity” thing enters in. Look, I can predict the GRIZ will win by 11,671. But I won’t bet that that they do. He’s predicting with his fandom. And that’s all fine and well. He’s a SDSU fan. Just don’t pretend to be objective at that point.

 

[AZGrizFan]

If anyone is really stupid enough to give me 21 points, I’ll take all-comers, minimum wager of $5000. You in Jack?

I said most Jackrabbit fans will bet the spread which I believe sits at -13 for the Jacks.

Not a gambling man myself, but I’d give 21 points in a steak meal or a fine bottle of bourbon.

I’ll take that bet. :thumb: