Is it even worth it to have an official cats' game thread?

[poorgriz]

Posted on another thread but probably more relevant here. Since their D2 win doesn't mean jack in the eyes the playoff committee, the Cats are essentially 1-1 right now. They have 8 games left and will need to go 6-2 in that stretch to reach the "required" 7 D1 wins to have a sniff at playoffs (I put that in quotes as the committee did let in a 6-5 team last year, but one they deemed had THE toughest schedule in all of FCS....obviously not the case here).

So 6-2 with games against UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM still remaining. Honest question to all the cats posters, do you really see your team making this happen? I guess it's not impossible, but from what I've seen in your team I think this is a pipe dream. Would love your feedback though. Got some good cats buds who are very realistic that this is a rebuild year or two but they said most of your unrealistic fans don't see it that way.

If I'm laying money down on that, no.. we don't get to 6-2. My guess is 5-3 but we'll see. Could be 6-2 but could be 3-5. TG has our D playing inspired, aggressive and pretty tough football right now. Yes it's been against lesser competition but I don't give a shit, we couldn't even muster shutouts, ints, forced fumbles, etc. in our cupcake games under the Ash regime the past few years. I know for a fact our D is better. How much better? We'll find out after playing UND, NAU, EWU, and UM. Luckily we get NAU and EWU at home which should help. I don't see any way in hell we beat EWU, especially with Kupp back but stranger things have happened.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Posted on another thread but probably more relevant here. Since their D2 win doesn't mean jack in the eyes the playoff committee, the Cats are essentially 1-1 right now. They have 8 games left and will need to go 6-2 in that stretch to reach the "required" 7 D1 wins to have a sniff at playoffs (I put that in quotes as the committee did let in a 6-5 team last year, but one they deemed had THE toughest schedule in all of FCS....obviously not the case here).

So 6-2 with games against UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM still remaining. Honest question to all the cats posters, do you really see your team making this happen? I guess it's not impossible, but from what I've seen in your team I think this is a pipe dream. Would love your feedback though. Got some good cats buds who are very realistic that this is a rebuild year or two but they said most of your unrealistic fans don't see it that way.

If I'm laying money down on that, no.. we don't get to 6-2. My guess is 5-3 but we'll see. Could be 6-2 but could be 3-5. TG has our D playing inspired, aggressive and pretty tough football right now. Yes it's been against lesser competition but I don't give a shit, we couldn't even muster shutouts, ints, forced fumbles, etc. in our cupcake games under the Ash regime the past few years. I know for a fact our D is better. How much better? We'll find out after playing UND, NAU, EWU, and UM. Luckily we get NAU and EWU at home which should help. I don't see any way in hell we beat EWU, especially with Kupp back but stranger things have happened.

Thanks for your response. I think that's a fair assessment. You have a lot of youth playing which may pay dividends in the future. I agree I think your defense is better.

 

[Bear Axed]

 

[Mavman]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

 

[jodcon]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

I'd "guess" if you shifted about 30% from the cats to us the numbers would be about right. Educated guess at that.

 

[HookedonGriz]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

Keeping a d2 off our schedule helps. Plus a good 2-0 start helps too. 9 games left, Griz will have to go 5-4 over that stretch to get in at 7-4. I don't see this being an issue at all.

 

[Mavman]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

Keeping a d2 off our schedule helps. Plus a good 2-0 start helps too. 9 games left, Griz will have to go 5-4 over that stretch to get in at 7-4. I don't see this being an issue at all.

Poly,Nau,ewu all tough games SUU tossup
ISU not a gimme as we saw last year.
Only games I think are locks are Miss valley and SAC.

Cats have two tough games left NAU and EWU both at MSU. They have SAC, Weber,Davis and UND they can beat.
SUU tossup.

 

[HookedonGriz]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

Keeping a d2 off our schedule helps. Plus a good 2-0 start helps too. 9 games left, Griz will have to go 5-4 over that stretch to get in at 7-4. I don't see this being an issue at all.

Poly,Nau,ewu all tough games SUU tossup
ISU not a gimme as we saw last year.
Only games I think are locks are Miss valley and SAC.

Cats have two tough games left NAU and EWU both at MSU. They have SAC, Weber,Davis and UND they can beat.
SUU tossup.

Agree to disagree. Cats have 5 tough games left. UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM. They'll have to win 3 of those 5 and their other 3 to get to 7 D1 wins.

 

[daGrizJ]

I would guess griz have a 60% chance of making playoffs and cats have a 55% chance. Just saying!

Keeping a d2 off our schedule helps. Plus a good 2-0 start helps too. 9 games left, Griz will have to go 5-4 over that stretch to get in at 7-4. I don't see this being an issue at all.

Poly,Nau,ewu all tough games SUU tossup
ISU not a gimme as we saw last year.
Only games I think are locks are Miss valley and SAC.

Cats have two tough games left NAU and EWU both at MSU. They have SAC, Weber,Davis and UND they can beat.
SUU tossup.

Poly, EWU, will be tough and on the road for the Griz. And, NAU maybe, they haven't shown much yet. SUU could be hard, but at Wa-Griz, as are MVS, Sac, ISU, & MSU.

I dont' see the Cats beating NAU, EWU, or UM. UND, Weber, & SUU are also very possible losses.

If I were waterboarded and forced to speak the truth, I would sputter that both UM and MSU are in rebuilding years. Cough, cough.

 

[pecos24]

So 6-2 with games against UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM still remaining. Honest question to all the cats posters, do you really see your team making this happen? I guess it's not impossible, but from what I've seen in your team I think this is a pipe dream. Would love your feedback though. Got some good cats buds who are very realistic that this is a rebuild year or two but they said most of your unrealistic fans don't see it that way.

I think the Cats do no worse than 4-4 and no better than 6-2 in conference play. My honest guess is the middle option, 5-3. I think we will know a lot more about our team after the UND game. In all honesty our offensive production needs to be more consistent to have any hope of winning more than 4 conference games.


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[HookedonGriz]

So 6-2 with games against UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM still remaining. Honest question to all the cats posters, do you really see your team making this happen? I guess it's not impossible, but from what I've seen in your team I think this is a pipe dream. Would love your feedback though. Got some good cats buds who are very realistic that this is a rebuild year or two but they said most of your unrealistic fans don't see it that way.

I think the Cats do no worse than 4-4 and no better than 6-2 in conference play. My honest guess is the middle option, 5-3. I think we will know a lot more about our team after the UND game. In all honesty our offensive production needs to be more consistent to have any hope of winning more than 4 conference games.


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Fair assessment as well. I think the Cats could probably hit that 5-3 mark if they put it together offensively. Right now that is the part that is struggling. They've been fortunate to have tremendous field position and turnovers on the opposing 5-10 yard line that has led to scores. But even at 5-3 and finishing 7-4 the committee will discount the D2 win and playoffs will be out of picture. Scheduling the d2 will hurt I'm afraid.

 

[JDoub]

Well, to be fair, I don't think anybody claimed that WO was the Green Bay Packers. Discussing at the Mo Club yesterday, none of us had ever heard of the "Great Northwest Athletic Conference."

Dude, the griz have played 2 GNAC teams in the last 5 years (including Western Oregon!). Time for a history lesson

GNAC was formed 15 years ago. There have been 55 games between GNAC and Big Sky teams since then (conference affiliations at time of game). The Big Sky is 47-8 (85%) during that time, and all-time the Big Sky is 199-166-11 (63%) against GNAC teams.

The griz have just a slightly better winning percentage against GNAC teams (77%) as you do against Big Sky teams (72%) historically, but have gone 3-0 vs GNAC since 2001.

There's already been 4 GNAC vs Big Sky match-ups this year, Big Sky going 3-1.

GNAC is to the Big Sky, what the Big Sky is to Pac12

*end lesson*

Azusa Pacific (GNAC) would beat half the teams in the Big Sky right now.

No Big Sky team would beat half the teams in the Pac12 right now, but I'm glad they still schedule us.

If you want chances to play up, seems to me you have to play down as well. I know many griz fans on this board did not like it when UM scheduled OK Panhandle State.

Appreciate you being fair. I'm happy the Cats got playing time together, young guys got reps, took care of business, no injuries, and didn't pull a Kramer.

 

[JDoub]

So 6-2 with games against UND, NAU, EWU, SUU, and UM still remaining. Honest question to all the cats posters, do you really see your team making this happen? I guess it's not impossible, but from what I've seen in your team I think this is a pipe dream. Would love your feedback though. Got some good cats buds who are very realistic that this is a rebuild year or two but they said most of your unrealistic fans don't see it that way.

I think the Cats do no worse than 4-4 and no better than 6-2 in conference play. My honest guess is the middle option, 5-3. I think we will know a lot more about our team after the UND game. In all honesty our offensive production needs to be more consistent to have any hope of winning more than 4 conference games.


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Fair assessment as well. I think the Cats could probably hit that 5-3 mark if they put it together offensively. Right now that is the part that is struggling. They've been fortunate to have tremendous field position and turnovers on the opposing 5-10 yard line that has led to scores. But even at 5-3 and finishing 7-4 the committee will discount the D2 win and playoffs will be out of picture. Scheduling the d2 will hurt I'm afraid.

Yep. 6-2 is possible, but I'm not thinking probable. If we can take care of UND, the probability of getting 5 more Big Sky wins goes way up, because it will tell me we are improving each week. We've got a bunch of young guys playing, and on both sides of the ball we're still figuring each other out. Our O play calling stinks. Our QB is inconsistent. However, in the areas of improvement needed, we have shown we have the potential to fix. Its just a matter of real improvement achieved each week from here on out.

It seems that our coaching staff has a different approach than the last one. Ash's tenure proved little improvement in October, November, and December. Not at all the vibe I get from the current group. Time will tell.

 

[Bear Axed]

 

[UMGriz75]

Azusa Pacific (GNAC) would beat half the teams in the Big Sky right now.

No Big Sky team would beat half the teams in the Pac12 right now, but I'm glad they still schedule us.

If you want chances to play up, seems to me you have to play down as well. I know many griz fans on this board did not like it when UM scheduled OK Panhandle State.

Appreciate you being fair. I'm happy the Cats got playing time together, young guys got reps, took care of business, no injuries, and didn't pull a Kramer.

Well, that's interesting about the GNAC. Unless it is PAC 12 or SEC in playoffs, I apparently don't pay much attention to conference membership. I read it, but couldn't tell you right now what St. Francis plays in, for instance.

The Western Oregon game looked like the Cat players had a great time; lots of players got time, they all did a good job.

Western Oregon? Not so much.