PlayerRep said:
grizzlyjournal said:
Based upon this thread's original premise... some "interesting stats" introduced by PlayerRep, I've found it to be quite enlightening for me overall. (I'm attempting to sidestep the odd personal rancor which I believe is counterproductive at best.)
The divergent statistical (not coaching; not talent; not shooting) analyses provide some predictive views:
Prompted by Potomac and Grizfan-24, I took a look at the Big Sky stats page and the KenPom stats, and concluded that, when I filtered to conference only games, I got a much better look at this team's strong & weak points and their chances (health permitting) over the next 6 weeks. (I had not previously looked at the KenPom conference only stats until reading 24's post)
Grizfan-24's advanced metric analysis seems VERY accurate. In brief, Montana will need better perimeter shooting (best if it comes from a wing), consistent scoring production from a third player (beyond MB and WW), the ability to produce offensively against zone D, and a reduction of the number or % of turnovers. This ignores challenges the Griz face against specific teams (Cats on Saturday will be a big one)... but IF or WHETHER or WHEN the Griz can score from the perimeter with more consistency is a hard one to predict with this team.
Glad you got something out of the thread. However, none of those things involved the reason I started the thread. Also, if you look only at the conference stats, you won't see the improvement that UM has made over the season in certain areas, you won't see the improvement of certain players have made, and you won't see the extent of the inconsistency (both the team and certain players). For example, you would be left thinking that WW had been a terrific 3-pt shooter for the season. He hasn't been. He had a very low percentage early on, then started improved, and then had a several very high percentages. I didn't look at what you say you just looked at, but I don't see how you could possibly understand UM's weak points by looking only at conference stats.
You make a very strong case for using all-game stats upon which to develop a Griz team profile for this season. You are right, specifically about individual player development. And, I agree that this team has evolved significantly (in mostly positive ways) and to see that development, all game stats should be examined. In fact, I see the all-games stats as a measure of team growth from game one to game 19. In doing so, we can see that the general "minutes-logged" by some players has changed (flip-flopped) significantly as conference play began.
But that led me to consider it instructive to look at conference stats which -- with a more stable lineup -- might more accurately reflect the team performance using players currently logging the most minutes (the smaller depth rotation, as it turns out).
Additionally -- as the conference season nears its halfway mark -- comparing Montana's performance in conference play against teams very familiar with our style of play (down to knowing our alternating inbounds schemes!) I observed trends by analyzing conference-only stats that I consider reliable (I hope) indicators for predicting How the Griz will perform from here out... AND for predicting how they'll fare by not having to play Idaho and EWU a second time.
Maybe the best answer is to examine both statistical measures, since there's value in looking at the broader picture.