I'm picking the Griz

[grizzlyjournal]

I caught a practice earlier this week (Wiley was absent but I, of course, counted him) and noted that, with the addition of Chris Kemp (6-7, 238 lbs from Baltimore) Montana's front court looked deeper than it had been for years. I was stoked.

That didn't last long!

If Martin Breunig (Washington transfer) could play this season it would be a different story (he IS as advertised). As is, this makes the second straight year (third of four with the loss of Billy Reader, now at Morehead State ) that Montana has lost a crucial baseline/key player at the beginning of the season, after classes have started... and thus too late to add another recruit. It also means that losing Spencer Coleman (policy violations) and Kevin Henderson (grades)... the loss of both which didn’t seem too damaging at the time, now very hurtful.

In the practice I watched, Kemp showed ample ability to man the four. He's powerful, wide (a true post-up presence), physical, and also a good rebounder. But the loss of Wiley means that Kemp seems to be the ONLY true power forward on the team. So...

It looks like Mike Weisner will be called upon once again (as was last year) to log major time at the four,which he proved he's very capable of doing, simply because he's such a good jumper/rebounder. But at 195 lbs., he gives up 40 pounds to Kemp! Or most other div. 1 power forwards.

So... what are the Griz’ other options?

Well, it’s certainly time for Nick Emerson (6-5 soph from Columbia Falls) to step up. He certainly appears physically "ready," having put on considerable upper body strength over the summer. I’m sure the coaches will give him opportunity to man the position.

Any other possibilities? Only very young players originally slotted as rangy shooting guards to slide down & play the wing..

The Griz do have a promising frosh (who was at the practice I attended, but who did not play); that's Daine Muller, 6-4 swing player from Billings Skyview, and not currently listed on the Grz roster. Muller told me (at the Griz fundraiser) that he won't practice for "awhile," but I don't recall the details of his issue, and don't want to speculate. If he can play by January, he would at least add some depth to a thin roster. Presently, he’s an unknown.

Griz coaches will probably have to hope that a couple freshmen step up and free up All-Griz (MVP, preseason mid major player of the year) Kareem Jamar to concentrate on wing.

Behind starting point guard Keron DeShields and shooting guard Jordan Gregory, that leaves junior point guard Morgan Young ((6-0 from Lustre), freshman point guard Mario Dunn (frosh from Oakland, CA) and freshmen shooting guards Brandon Gfeller (6-4 from Colfax WA) and Jack Lopez (6-5 frosh from Bankstown, Australia). All show promise. All are young. None of which (I believe) were expected to play wing.

By January, redshirt frosh Riley Bradshaw will be available as backup point/shooting guard and his presence will strengthen Montana’s back court attack significantly...

What it means, bluntly... is a return to Montana’s “small ball” offense of last season. Which, simply put, won the Griz the Big Sky title last year.

That might seem ok, but this is a new season. The Big Sky will be a significantly tougher conference this year, with Weber State (the perennial favorite) North Dakota, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado as upper tier teams all fully capable of challenging for the Big Sky title. Montana State and Eastern Washington should be tougher... but they’re going to have to prove it to me.

So... the Griz just lost a promising young power forward in Jake Wiley. Sad to see him go; wish him the best.

Where does that put the Griz? Only with the EXACT SAME STARTING FIVE (minus Spencer Coleman) that WON its last four Big Sky conference games last year, minus starters Will Cherry and Matthias Ward. And then, with the return of Cherry, swept the conference postseason championship! The same team, mind you.

I’ll miss Jake. But it can't be helped. I’m going to bet that Weisner and Kemp (immediately) and Riley Bradshaw (by conference) will step up big time for Montana. I'll bet they know it as well.

I’m hopeful, but not as confident, that Eric Hutchison and Andy Martin have developed significantly and solidify the key. Importantly, like other commenters at egriz, I’m pretty high on Brandon Gfeller, Jack Lopez and Mario Dunn. This is a great freshman class. It won't take them long to be battle-ready.

But most importantly, I’m fully confident that Montana's celebrated returning starters Jamar, DeShields and Gregory will step up their games as premier Big Sky Conf. players. These guys are seasoned vets. And Jamar's simply one of the best players in NCAA basketball... a Griz we'll possibly be comparing to Montana great MJ Richardson by season's end (yes... I watched every game M. R. ever played as a Griz and I believe it!).

I know that pre-season prognosticators are picking Weber State, North Dakota and Northern Colorado ahead of the Griz. That’s OK by me. After all, that’s no different than it was the two previous years. It's no different than it's been the past four years! And where did the Griz finish the past four years? Being picked as a bridesmade is pure motivation for the Griz.

So, for my money, my pre-season pick is for the Griz to threepeat.

 

[citygriz]

journal: i hope your prediction is better than you assessment of kareem v. micheal ray. look, i love kareem's game, and have since i saw him lead his team to the california high school championship. and character. many schools came after him after his performance in that championship game, but he kept his committment to montana. no question he's improved and has a future as a pro, hopefully in the nba. talent and character form a great combination.

but as good as micheal ray? uh, no. not close. with micheal ray, we're talking about an extraordinary talent, a player with the potential to have been included among the all-time greats at the highest level, had he avoided the drugs and been the possessor of a better head. when jud heathcote was asked at michigan state if he ever had a player the caliber of magic johnson he said, "yes, micheal ray richardson." remember, he was the fourth pick overall in the draft, and in his second year in the nba, set Knicks records for assists and steals in one year. at montana his senior year, with a poor supporting cast, he nearly took montana to the ncaa tournament all by himself, until a heart-breaking loss at home to a deeper weber team ruined it for us. against pacific, in a pre-season game i saw in stockton that same year, where the refs were notorious homers, micheal ray just beat pacific all by himself. they could not catch him, let alone stop him. i can still see the pacific coach, red faced, fists clenched, screaming at his players to stop michael ray.

no, kareem has had a wonderful career, and may be ready for his best year ever. but legends, like stereotypes, are earned. michael ray's is earned.

 

[grizzlyjournal]

Citay: I've always respected and enjoyed your posts. But your response to my brief comments on Kareem Jamar is proof that we travel in separate quantum realities as Griz hoops fans (no harm in that, I guess).

First note: I wrote regarding Kareem Jamar... "a Griz we'll possibly be comparing to Montana great MJ Richardson by season's end."

I did NOT write (as you imply): "but as good as micheal ray?"

There's a difference between "comparing," and being "as good as," and -- for clarification -- I meant that the two would be considered in an elite group of Griz greats who had an impact on Montana's storied hoops history (and I have a huge mental "catalog" of Griz greats in my personal mental archives to draw from).

I don't WANT to compare the two straight up. I can't! M.R.R. played 40 years ago, for god's sake. NO ONE can make straight-up comparisons. Besides, if I tried, I'd use Big Sky/Griz seasonal statistics and awards, and that means that Kareem would ALREADY be the more dominant/influential player by virtue of his leading Montana to THREE straight playoff appearances (two in the NCAA) including his post-season recognition, especially his dual all-Big Sky/MVP recognition from last year. That doesn't yet count this year.

So... I'll let you -- and others entrapped in their rose-colored view of the "glory days" of Griz hoops past -- rant on. Been there, done that.

So, for me, the present and the future are what's really worth getting excited about. After all, aren't we really living it right now? (those of us who attend the games, that is.) For me, it's way more fun to anticipate watching THIS year's team (defending Big Sky champs, y'know) hit the courts with a huge chip on their shoulders because most pre-season prognosticators (even you, I gather) pick them as second or third.

So... Let the games begin.

Oh, and... after the season's over, I'll be happy to pick up the debate.

P.S. A great way to "compare" Micheal Ray and Kareem would be to -- somehow -- arrange a meeting between the two. I know that Kareem is aware of Micheal Ray and would probably love to meet him. It would probably be great inspiration for Kareem going into his senior year.

 

[EverettGriz]

If our biggest worry is whether we can compare KJ to MRR, I'm happy, happy, happy. :thumb: :lol:

GJ, great write-up. But are people really picking UM to finish lower than 2nd???

 

[grizzlyjournal]

Everett: None other than Jon at bigskybasketball.com http://www.bigskybball.com/2013/10/my-preview-on-espn-insider.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He makes a good case, because North Dakota (a puzzling 90-second semifinal lapse away from advancing to the 2012-13 tourney championship game against the Griz) returns all five starters. Add-in the two northerns (..au & colo) & the Big Sky will be a battleground this year.

 

[jon]

To be honest, right now, I think Montana and North Dakota are neck and neck. I am writing up a preview right now to post on the site later in the week, and I've got them both around the 14-6 mark.

There's a lot to like - Kareem Jamar is the best player in the Big Sky, Wayne Tinkle is the best coach in the Big Sky, Jordan Gregory I think is a legit 2nd-team all conference player, Chris Kemp is the real deal from everything I read, and I am a big Weisner fan.

I do have some concerns though:
- You mention that this group of players won the last four games of the Big Sky season without Cherry and Ward. That is true. But they also had Spencer Coleman (who was big in those games)... and it wasn't easy. They beat Sac State and NAU at home, but beat MSU by 3 on the road, and SUU took them to OT. Those games were dogfights.
- I am concerned about DeShields ability to hold down the PG spot. In 22 minutes a game last year, he had 1.8 assists per game. I know that Jamar is as good a playmaker as there is in the Big Sky, but they still need someone else creating shots for the rest of the team. I don't know if DeShields is that guy. Plus, he's not a great scorer... he shot 37% last year. Mario Dunn should be a star eventually, but it will be a lot if they have to heavily rely on him so soon.
- I worry about the 5 spot too. No disrespect to him, but Eric Hutchison doesn't provide a lot offensively (which is ok), but he wasn't a very good rebounder last year either. Andy Martin has a lot of potential (his block rate was through the roof, and he showed signs of being a really good offensive rebounder), but he had a long way to go. If anything happens to either of those guys (injury, foul troubles), there is not much in the way of frontcourt depth without Wiley there as the 5th big.
- The rebounding is still a concern for now. Jamar was the best rebounder on the team, but Coleman was second best by the percentage numbers. Kemp probably immediately steps in and will lead the team, but they still need the other guys to step up there.
- Bradshaw should contribute when he is eligible, Gfeller looks like a stud with his shooting ability, and Young/Emerson/Lopez could contribute. But again, there is no proven depth in the backcourt at all. All of those guys maybe have 20 points between them in their college career.

For UND, they return their key guys, and their frontcourt should be better, which has been a big weakness the past two years.
For UNC, I have them 4th, but I can envision a scenario where they at least challenge for second... they shored up some big weaknesses, as they actually have a PG now (Corey Spence), and a third big that can play some defense (Dominique Lee). Those things killed them last season.

All in all, obviously it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Montana finished above UND and nabbed the #2 spot, I think they are neck and neck. I'd be really surprised, to be perfectly honest, if they finished in the top spot in the regular season (in the conference tournament, anything can happen). I think there is a big talent gap between the teams this season. Of course, it wouldn't be the first time I underestimated the Griz, and I'll be the first to admit it if they prove me wrong. But if Tinkle can coax another regular season title out of this crew, I'd probably be ready to have him perform surgery on me, because he could do no wrong at that point.

And I am not the only one picking UND 2nd and Montana 3rd... don't forget the coaches actually did as well!

 

[EverettGriz]

Of course the Griz have some potential areas of concern. But as I posted in another thread, I simply don't know what else they need to do to earn respect. If Weber returned as much as this Griz team did after winning back to back titles, they'd be an overwhelming pick to repeat.

I'll just say it: there's a weber bias and an anti-Griz sentiment in this league. And FWIW, 4 years ago that was deserved. But no longer.

And with all due respect, Jon, if the Griz repeat this year, they'll still be picked second or third next year with a bunch of "they've got to prove it to me" comments. At some point, it seems to me, one will have to assume the proving is done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Potomac Griz]

Of course the Griz have some potential areas of concern. But as I posted in another thread, I simply don't know what else they need to do to earn respect. If Weber returned as much as this Griz team did after winning back to back titles, they'd be an overwhelming pick to repeat.

I'll just say it: there's a weber bias and an anti-Griz sentiment in this league. And FWIW, 4 years ago that was deserved. But no longer.

And with all due respect, Jon, if the Griz repeat this year, they'll still be picked second or third next year with a bunch of "they've got to prove it to me" comments. At some point, it seems to me, one will have to assume the proving is done.

Weber is fairly unproven in some areas too yet it rarely seems to affect the predictions of them being top of the Big Sky every year... They lost Bamforth (big loss) and of course Otis (big loss). Wheelright played about 20 mins a game last year and he's gone too.
Of course they return the starters Tresnak, Berry, Richardson and a bunch of other players who contributed last year too.

Is Bolomboy ready to step into Otis' place as the bruiser inside? He had some great games last year, but also quite a few where he was a bit of a non-factor, especially offensively. Not saying he's not talented, of course he is very talented and he did really pick things up towards the end of last year for Weber.

Who makes up for the loss of Bamforth? They have a newcomer Jeremy Senglin (remember that name!) who is a freshman and started for them against Adams State. Gittens sounds like a good one in the making too, but is also only a freshman. As with most freshman they'll probably be a bit erratic.

In the exhibition game Weber struggled with Adams State only winning by 8. Hard to imagine Weber getting beat inside by Adams State with Tresnak and Bolomboy down there, but I guess it happened. Both teams had 42 rebounds with Adams State having 14 offensive rebounds. Points in the paint show Weber had 26 points to Adams State's 32. Would that have happened with Frank Otis down there? Very doubtful.

Sounds like they didn't handle the press too well either. Weber only scored 6 points off 7 Adams State turnovers while Adams State had 14 off of 13 Weber turnovers. They also struggled from the FT line going 37-57.

Even with those struggles and big holes to fill with Bamforth and Otis being gone (which aren't of course to say Weber wont be awesome again), people just assume Weber always reloads (much like the Griz in football years ago) and will be top of the Big Sky every year.

It hasn't reached that point with the Griz in BB yet where people trust that the Griz just reload, have talent ready to step up and don't have to go through a "rebuilding" period after losing great players like Cherry & Ward. Hopefully it gets to that point with the Griz eventually and they and Tinkle get the respect they deserve

 

[GrizLA]

Of course the Griz have some potential areas of concern. But as I posted in another thread, I simply don't know what else they need to do to earn respect. If Weber returned as much as this Griz team did after winning back to back titles, they'd be an overwhelming pick to repeat.

I'll just say it: there's a weber bias and an anti-Griz sentiment in this league. And FWIW, 4 years ago that was deserved. But no longer.

And with all due respect, Jon, if the Griz repeat this year, they'll still be picked second or third next year with a bunch of "they've got to prove it to me" comments. At some point, it seems to me, one will have to assume the proving is done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You might be right but I think what weighs heavily on most of the voters and coaches and all is the absolute embarrassment for the conference that was laid on Montana by Syracuse. And, Wisconsin the year before. Thinks like that are what stand out...sad to say.

 

[DPGriz4]

To be honest, right now, I think Montana and North Dakota are neck and neck. I am writing up a preview right now to post on the site later in the week, and I've got them both around the 14-6 mark.

There's a lot to like - Kareem Jamar is the best player in the Big Sky, Wayne Tinkle is the best coach in the Big Sky, Jordan Gregory I think is a legit 2nd-team all conference player, Chris Kemp is the real deal from everything I read, and I am a big Weisner fan.

I do have some concerns though:
- You mention that this group of players won the last four games of the Big Sky season without Cherry and Ward. That is true. But they also had Spencer Coleman (who was big in those games)... and it wasn't easy. They beat Sac State and NAU at home, but beat MSU by 3 on the road, and SUU took them to OT. Those games were dogfights.
- I am concerned about DeShields ability to hold down the PG spot. In 22 minutes a game last year, he had 1.8 assists per game. I know that Jamar is as good a playmaker as there is in the Big Sky, but they still need someone else creating shots for the rest of the team. I don't know if DeShields is that guy. Plus, he's not a great scorer... he shot 37% last year. Mario Dunn should be a star eventually, but it will be a lot if they have to heavily rely on him so soon.
- I worry about the 5 spot too. No disrespect to him, but Eric Hutchison doesn't provide a lot offensively (which is ok), but he wasn't a very good rebounder last year either. Andy Martin has a lot of potential (his block rate was through the roof, and he showed signs of being a really good offensive rebounder), but he had a long way to go. If anything happens to either of those guys (injury, foul troubles), there is not much in the way of frontcourt depth without Wiley there as the 5th big.
- The rebounding is still a concern for now. Jamar was the best rebounder on the team, but Coleman was second best by the percentage numbers. Kemp probably immediately steps in and will lead the team, but they still need the other guys to step up there.
- Bradshaw should contribute when he is eligible, Gfeller looks like a stud with his shooting ability, and Young/Emerson/Lopez could contribute. But again, there is no proven depth in the backcourt at all. All of those guys maybe have 20 points between them in their college career.

For UND, they return their key guys, and their frontcourt should be better, which has been a big weakness the past two years.
For UNC, I have them 4th, but I can envision a scenario where they at least challenge for second... they shored up some big weaknesses, as they actually have a PG now (Corey Spence), and a third big that can play some defense (Dominique Lee). Those things killed them last season.

All in all, obviously it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Montana finished above UND and nabbed the #2 spot, I think they are neck and neck. I'd be really surprised, to be perfectly honest, if they finished in the top spot in the regular season (in the conference tournament, anything can happen). I think there is a big talent gap between the teams this season. Of course, it wouldn't be the first time I underestimated the Griz, and I'll be the first to admit it if they prove me wrong. But if Tinkle can coax another regular season title out of this crew, I'd probably be ready to have him perform surgery on me, because he could do no wrong at that point.

And I am not the only one picking UND 2nd and Montana 3rd... don't forget the coaches actually did as well!

When it comes to basketball, don't over think it and bet on the individual talent. Most likely Kareem will be the best player in the conference again and if he is the Griz will probably win the the Big Sky again. Obviously the question marks exist but this is the back-to-back Sky champs and they return the Big Sky POY, no reason they shouldn't have the benefit of the doubt going into the season.

 

[jon]

You guys are right, I’m not ready to give them the benefit of the doubt and say that since they return the POY and have won the league in back to back years, that they should be automatically instilled as the favorite heading into the year. I can only speak to myself, but that’s not the result of an anti-Montana bias, it’s just the nature of college basketball. Teams and rosters change. One example I would use… if you remember Southern Illinois… for a 6 year stretch starting in 2001, they averaged over 25 wins each year, won the MVC 5 times, made it to the Tournament all those years, and the Sweet 16 twice. The last three of those years were with Chris Lowery, who was seen as an up and coming coach. You would say they had earned the benefit of the doubt… and of course they have been back to the Tourney since and haven’t had a winning record in 6 years.

In terms of minutes played last year, the Griz lose 3 of their top 5 guys (and 2 of top 3), and they were all really good players. Cherry and Ward both played over 30 minutes per game. Weber State obviously loses guys as you point out… I don’t know how they will replace Bamforth. They have a lot of options, but that is definitely a question mark. Otis was a great player for them, but he played 23 minutes a game (as opposed to something like 31 from Ward)… roughly the same amount of time per game that his replacement played per game. One of the reasons I am bullish on Weber is Bolomboy… By the percentage of rebounds he grabbed, he was one of the best rebounders in the country as a true freshman, and seemed to be developing more and more offensively as the year went on. In this case, in my mind, WSU doesn’t only have a replacement for a guy they lose, but potentially an upgrade (no slam on Otis, he was a great player for them).

They lose Gelaun too… but he was a backup guard that shot 43% and had an assist to turnover ratio below 1. His loss is more like Kevin Henderson for Montana… he would be nice to have for depth purposes, but he’s a guy that should be able to be replaced without a ton of trouble.

The last note… for me, I place a lot of trust in the underlying numbers beyond just the win-loss record. I don’t expect anyone here to agree with me here (just as I probably wouldn’t agree with you if you were talking about my favorite team), but I think records in close games tends to regress to the mean a bit. In games that went to overtime or were decided by 6 pts or less during Big Sky conference play, Montana was 7-0, Weber State was 2-2. Which tells me that Weber State was blowing guys out in the vast majority of their wins, while the Grizzlies were relying on winning a lot of tight ones which are much more susceptible to things like lucky bounces or a bad call, or the kind of stuff that tends to even out in the long run.

Again, during conference play, Weber State’s efficiency numbers were better than Montana. WSU scored 1.15 points per possession, Montana scored 1.11. Weber State allowed 0.93 points per possession, Montana allowed 0.98 points per possession. At the end of the day, the win-loss record is all that counts (and that is why Montana was the champs), but I think those types of numbers are better predictors of future success than the win-loss record. Now, you’ll say that Montana just knows how to win close games, and maybe you are right, but it is my opinion that it’s not quite that simple.

So, as I said, I don’t really expect that you will agree with me, and I completely understand that. But that is where I am coming from… based on the underlying numbers, Weber State was just as good or better than Montana last year (put another way: would you be confident that the Griz would have won the conference title game on a neutral court?), and I think the losses of Bamforth/Otis/Wheelwright are easier to overcome than Cherry/Ward/Coleman/Henderson, in large part because I think when he was healthy, Cherry was the best player in the conference. That is why I have picked Weber State over Montana going into the year, not because I don’t think Montana has earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

[jon]

When it comes to basketball, don't over think it and bet on the individual talent. Most likely Kareem will be the best player in the conference again and if he is the Griz will probably win the the Big Sky again. Obviously the question marks exist but this is the back-to-back Sky champs and they return the Big Sky POY, no reason they shouldn't have the benefit of the doubt going into the season.

There is a contradiction in your first statement. You say don't bet on individual talent, and then in the next sentence say that if Kareem is the best player in the conference (an individual talent), the Grizzlies will probably win the Big Sky again.

 

[EverettGriz]

Jon, your BB knowledge is second to none and I greatly appreciate your posts and your approach to them.

And please don't take my posts as assaults on you or your opinion. Frankly, I would pick Weber as a slight favorite for the league title as well. What I can't get my arms around is anyone picking UM lower than 2nd. Could it happen? Of course it could. But while I agree that, much like stocks, past performance is not a definitive predictor of future success, I'll take it over most other stats.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[grizzlyjournal]

Jon: This is nit-picky on my part, but I believe you mis-read DPGriz4's sentence regarding talent.

He did NOT write "don't bet on individual talent," as you imply.

He actually wrote this: "When it comes to basketball, don't over think it and bet on the individual talent." Emphasis mine.

I read DPGriz4's sentence to mean (add a comma, if you will) "...don't over-think it (the game of basketball) and, comma, BET ON the individual talent."

In that regard, DPriz4 makes a very strong argument FOR betting on individual talent... as in Kareem Jamar's case, a very good bet, since he was a key player in EVERY Griz Big Sky Tournament title game of the past three years (including Montana's loss to Northern Colorado when he was a freshman, who came very close to singlehandedly catapulting the Griz to a win... give or take an odd referee's call or two!).

 

[jon]

Gotcha Grizzlyjournal... if that is what DPGriz4 said, then I definitely did mis-read it, and my apologies on that!

 

[DPGriz4]

Yeah missing comma. My point is do bet on the best player so long as all else is relatively equal, which I believe it is in this case.