It’s a top-10 matchup under the lights in Wa Griz this Saturday! The Vandals are coming to town in an effort to win back the little brown stein. The UM-UI rivalry is an old one and it’s the only one in conference where Montana doesn’t hold the advantage. Idaho holds a 56-31-2 lead. Montana is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings, however, I think many of us still recall that frustrating and stinging loss the last time Idaho came to Missoula in 2022.
The Vandals have a new head coach, Thomas Ford Jr, he was at Idaho before as an RBs/ST coach and then went to Oregon State for a few years before coming back to Moscow. He’s very well known throughout the PNW and highly regarded, I believe his brother is Tracy Ford who is a very well known athletic trainer in Seattle who played for Idaho and has trained many Griz players over the years.
Idaho is 2-2 but is literally 4 points away from being 4-0 having lost two FBS games both by 3 points. Looking at their stats compared to rest of the conference;
- 9th scoring offense (Montana 1st)
- 2nd scoring defense (Montana 3rd)
- Montana has the #1 rush offense / Idaho has the #2 rush defense
- Idaho has the #2 rush offense / Montana has the #8 rush defense
- Montana the #1 pass offense / Idaho the #7 pass defense
- Idaho the #10 pass offense / Montana the #3 pass defense
- Best 3rd down defense in the Big Sky
- Lowest amount of sacks registered by the defense (Montana 2nd lowest)
- Highest TOP in the Big Sky, almost 35:00 per game
Idaho Dog Ass Vandals: 2-2
10-13 loss @ Washington State – I had this game on a multi-view and was casually watching it, Idaho’s offense for a good portion of the game was totally dead, but Wazzu’s wasn’t much better. It was 7-0 WSU at the half, and 10-0 midway through the 4th. Idaho finally gets things together on a 75 yard TD drive and it’s 10-7 with about 7:30 to go in the game. Wazzu goes 3 and out, Idaho can’t do anything, Wazzu gets the ball back with 4 minutes to go and a few plays later loses a fumble that Idaho recovers on the Wazzu 11… it’s looking like Idaho is going to win. However the Idaho offense can’t find the endzone and has to kick a game tying field goal. Wazzu with 1:36 to go chips away with short/medium passes and gets in position to hit a game winner as the clock expires. Super weird box score, Idaho ran for 188, WSU ran for 3. WSU passed for 208, Idaho passed for 33.
37-30 win vs St Thomas – Weird game, Idaho was behind late in the 2nd quarter and lead the whole 2nd half but St Thomas just wouldn’t go away. Idaho was up 29-16 early in the 4th and 37-23 before St Thomas got a final TD with 11 seconds to go to set the final score. St Thomas barely outgained Idaho in it, they had 208 rushing / 264 passing to Idaho’s 186 rushing / 281 passing. Both team’s QBs had over 260 passing and 3 passing TDs + lead their teams in rushing yards
20-6 win vs Utah Tech – Utah Tech might be an improving program as they’re just 1-3 but have played and lost to 3 ranked Big Sky teams losing to Davis by 7, NAU by 7, and Idaho by 14. This seemed like a grind-out type of win for Idaho, 286 rushing, 35:00 TOP, Utah Tech only had 8 possessions the whole game.
28-31 loss @ San Jose State – Idaho has to be kind of kicking themselves from this one, their inability to stop SJSU’s passing game really hurt. Idaho lead the game early 14-0 and was up 28-21 until SJSU found paydirt with just 5:30 left in the game to tie it up. Idaho with a chance to go win it, went 3 and out, SJSU chipped away to the Idaho 30 and nailed the game winner with just a few seconds left. Idaho actually had a decent lateral drill that crossed mid-field but it fell short. 39:01 TOP for Idaho… SJSU out gained them 420 to 389. Idaho missed a field goal earlier in the game too – but I’m told they have a kicker change happening now.
-------------
General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (300 for GRIZ vs 166 for UI)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (227 for GRIZ vs 203 for UI)
Total offense GRIZ (527 for GRIZ vs 369 for UI)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (185 for GRIZ vs 211 for UI)
Rushing yards allowed per game UI (207 or GRIZ vs 127 for UI)
Total defense UI (392 for GRIZ vs 338 for UI)
Offense points scored GRIZ (43 for GRIZ vs 23.75 for UI)
Defense points allowed PUSH (20 for GRIZ vs 20 for UI)
Turnover margin PUSH (+/-0 for GRIZ / -/+0 for UI)
Field goal % GRIZ (100% for GRIZ vs 50% for UI)
Punt Returns GRIZ (10 yards for GRIZ vs 5 yards for UI)
Kick Returns GRIZ (24 yards for GRIZ vs 19.7 yards for UI)
T.O.P. UI (30:32 for GRIZ vs 35:04 for UI)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (37.5% GRIZ / 58% UI)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (82% GRIZ / 64% UI)
3rd down offense UI – (46% for GRIZ / 49% for UI)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (32% allowed for GRIZ vs 39% allowed for UI)
A few pushes! Total goes 11 to Montana, 4 for Idaho, 2 Push. Idaho’s total defense is going to be a challenge.
--------------------
Idaho Players to Watch:
#3 Joshua Wood, QB: A Fresno State transfer from prior, he’s the motor in this Idaho offense, a big QB at 6-3, 215 one of the Tubs guys told me they get some real Cliff vibes from the kid in the way he plays. A good runner but doesn’t just run to run – will keep the field open and scan to find targets as he scrambles. Wood leads the team in rushing yards with 314 and 3 TDs, he’s passing for about 166 per game and has 6 TDs to just 1 Int. He is, without a doubt, the best QB we’ll have seen to date.
#23 Art Williams, RB: The 2nd leading rusher on the team, Williams is a 5-11, 205 pound back. He’s got 291 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs this season so far.
#89 Ryan Jezioro, WR: A taller target at 6-3, 202, he’s 2nd on the team in yards with 182 and he’s got 3 TDs so far – a tall RZ target for sure!
#7 Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar, WR: The leading WR on the team, almost 200 yards this season, but no TDs… yet. He’s also one of their kick returners and has the better return average of the group.
#4 Isiah King, LB: One of the best linebackers in the Big Sky, and on the pre-season all conference team. King tallied nearly 50 tackles and 2 Ints last season, so far this year he’s 2nd on the team with 27 tackles, 4 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. The guy is a machine and is around the ball a lot.
#89 Matyus McLain, DE: A 6-4, 255 pound edge McLain leads the team in TFLs with 5.5, he’s also got 1.5 sacks and has 16 total tackles, he’s also forced 1 fumble.
#96 Zach Krotzer, DT: Bit of an unsung hero on the D-line, but got recognition with a first team all conference pre-season selection. He’s 6-2, 270 pounds. He has just 7 stops this year, last year he had 40 and 3.5 TFLs + 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble.
-------------------------------
Keys to a Grizzly victory
- Don’t let Joshua Wood control the game – The Grizzly defense needs to be on this guy’s heels, hitting him, containing him, and making him uncomfortable all night long. He is what makes the Idaho offense work and if he can sit back and do his thing, it’ll be a long night for the Griz – as he makes sure the offense doesn’t leave the field for a very long time.
- Limit short drives / 3 and outs – Possessions will come at a premium, if the game goes Idaho’s way Montana is going to have somewhere between 8 to 10 total possessions – that’s not a lot of opportunities to score. Montana has to avoid a sluggish start or else it could be 10-0 at the half and Montana’s only had the ball 3 to 4 times.
- Tackling has to be better – A grind-out team with a big QB and big backs will absolutely punish Montana if they cannot wrap up and get guys to the ground. It’s imperative that the Grizzly defense cleans up their sloppy tackling this week.
- O-line has to have it’s best day – This is the best defensive front we’ve seen (yes better than UND) and while they aren’t known much to get after the QB so far, they play super solid and don’t allow much on the ground. Eli is our star and playmaker and the OL has to help pave the way for him.
- Force field goals – Idaho is supposedly changing kickers, they have kicking issues, so far 4-8 on the year and some closer misses. Griz defense can bend a bit, but hopefully not break, and lets see how the UI kicking game fares.
- Ah Yat airshow – In looking over some of these games it seems it’s better to hit Idaho in the passing game vs the rushing game. If we can get a repeat performance of last week from KAY I think the offense can do some real damage. If the passing game goes cold though… yikes.
- Remember the last 5 minutes of the UND game? – we need that crowd all damn night
- First team over 20 might win it - Can it be Montana’s dangerous offense that can score from all approaches? Or Idaho’s grind it out team?
----------------------
I’m worried about this one, Idaho’s best strength (their front / stopping the run) goes against Montana’s biggest weakness (O-line play). And if the game slows down and turns into a slugfest, Idaho has the dogs to do it, I just don’t know if Montana can match it. We know Montana has shown some great resiliency early and has a late game-winning drive under their belts – they may need it again this weekend!
There’s a few things I like for Montana here, I think the confidence and belief in the team is strong, and I think they’ve got some things up their sleeves that Idaho may not be prepared for. Idaho’s new HC (who’s been here before) will have his first game dealing with this environment as the head coach and these guys have a lot of fresh faces around the team (5 returning starters on offense, just 2 on defense).
I think this is a tight game where the magic of Wa Griz shines into the night and Montana pulls off a solid signature win, but it won’t be without some heartache and frustration. I’m going to say Montana comes away with the win here, 27-17.
Go Griz!
