It’s time to battle for the Little Brown Stein. The Idaho Vandals have not been inside Washington Grizzly Stadium since 2003, in a game where Bobby Hauck surprised Idaho with our 3rd string QB and a WR running the option and we put it to them, winning 41-28.
Idaho is an interesting team this year as they’ve had inexplicable losses at UNC and at PSU, but also some improbable wins, hosting EWU and ISU. There’s a suggestion (with good evidence) out there that Idaho still views themselves as “above” most of their competition and they get up to play teams they view their equal or their rival (EWU, Wyo, ISU, Weber) and completely mail it in otherwise. They’ve also once again been decimated by injuries – what could make their season now, is to return the Little Brown Stein to Moscow, I expect them to come to Missoula prepared to fight like hell.
The Griz, meanwhile, are on a roll and return home for a 2-game stand, if they can win 2 of their next 3 they will be a lock for a playoff bid. And now thanks to Weber beating Sac, the conference title still remains an option for Montana, but that will require winning out. First up on that front, the Griz face off against the Idaho Vandals.
Idaho Vandals 4-5
7-79 loss @ Penn State: Uh, sure. The big headline from this was the massive pay-day that UI got for this game. PSU had 683 total yards of offense.
41-31 win vs Central Washington: The game was tied 17-17 at the half, Idaho then pulled ahead in the 3rd, but CWU wouldn’t go away, scoring with 7 minutes to go in the game to get within 3. Idaho would respond with another TD to set the final score. CWU, down 10, turned the ball over on downs and UI ran out the clock. Idaho held the ball for 11:00 in the 4th quarter to keep CWU at bay. Idaho had a big game on the ground, 280 rushing, but they did allow 359 passing yards too.
16-21 loss @ Wyoming: Idaho jumped up 10-0, but Wyo worked their way back to hold a 14-10 lead at the half. In the 2nd half Idaho would hang around, kicking a few fieldgoals, and they only allowed 1 big play for Wyo… an 80 yard TD run. Idaho’s would-be final possession, with an attempt to get the win essentially went backwards, they had to punt, and never got the ball back. Wyo ran for 240… but passed for just 50 yards. Idaho had 303 total yards in the game.
35-27 win vs EWU: In a game that both teams billed as a big game leading up to this, Idaho jumped all over EWU early and held on as the Eagles scored 20 4th quarter points, but ran out of time. Idaho put up big numbers on offense, 223 rushing and 240 passing. EWU did throw for 365, but tossed a pick and lost a fumble.
24-27 loss @ UNC: Idaho was up 17-7 at the half and looking like they were going to get a W in Greeley. In the 2nd half UNC out-scored Idaho 20-7 and stunned the Vandals. After scoring a TD on their first possession in the 2nd half Idaho would miss a fieldgoal, throw 2 interceptions, and punt twice on 3 and outs.
35-41 loss vs Weber: Idaho scored with a minute to go in the game on a kickoff TD, so that made it seem a little closer than the score suggests, but Idaho was in this game every step o the way. Idaho did have an earlier 14-13 lead but otherwise was behind the whole way, they were able to not let Weber just run away from them though. Both teams had good games on the ground, Weber had 223, Idaho had 193. Idaho lost 3 fumbles in this game.
0-24 loss @ Portland State: Idaho had 236 total yards of offense and tossed 4 interceptions. PSU held the ball for 35:00 and just ground out mistake-prone Idaho.
45-21 win vs Idaho State: The battle of the domes. While ISU was considered a favorite, with their backup QB getting the start Idaho had all 45 of their points on the board by the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately a great showing from their backup QB would be tarnished as he left with an injury giving way again to Mason Petrino. Both teams went over 300 passing, Idaho forced 4 turnovers as well.
21-9 win vs Cal Poly: Idaho bottled up the potent Poly rushing offense to just 145 on the ground. Idaho had almost 250 rushing, controlled the clock, and just didn’t allow Poly to get much going.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (207 for IDAHO vs 304 for UM)
Rushing yards per game IDAHO (174 for IDAHO vs 170 for UM)
Total offense Montana (381 for IDAHO vs 474 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game IDAHO (223 for IDAHO vs 302 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (175 for IDAHO vs 117 for UM)
Total defense IDAHO (398 for IDAHO vs 419 for UM)
3-3 split!
Offense points scored Montana (24.9 for IDAHO vs 37.8 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (31.1 for IDAHO vs 25 for UM)
Turnover margin Montana – (-3 for IDAHO / +4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % Montana (50% for IDAHO vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (9.3 yards for IDAHO vs 14.7 yards for UM)
Kick Returns IDAHO (26.6 yards for IDAHO vs 22.2 yards for UM)
T.O.P. IDAHO (31:19 for IDAHO vs 30:28 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (75% IDAHO / 62% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (56% IDAHO / 64% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (36% for IDAHO / 49% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (32% allowed for IDAHO vs 33% allowed for UM)
Montana takes a big haul here, adding 9 while Idaho adds 2. That puts the total at 12 for Montana and 5 for Idaho.
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Players to Watch:
#88 Jeff Cotton, WR – One of the best in the Big Sky, especially when Mason Petrino is his QB. Cotton has 64 catches, 813 yards, and 5 TDs this season. He’s got a few kick returns in the stats too, but that doesn’t seem to be his primary job. He’s averaging exactly 8 catches per game, look for him early and often.
#22 Aundre Carter, RB – listed at 5’9” and 241 pounds, a bruiser of a back. He had a monster game against Poly too, almost 180 on the ground. He’s got 557 rushing yards and 7 TDs, with 25 more receiving yards as well.
#8 Mason Petrino, QB – Petrino, I’d posted last year, has some part of his game that reminds me of Brett Favre, in the sense that he scrambles around in the pocket/backfield a lot and can pull off some crazy stuff. However his luck has not been so great this year, 171 passing per game, 9 TDs to 7 INTs. He does have 175 rushing and 2 rushing TDs as well, so he is a bit of a threat on the ground as well. Lots of short passes, he’s averaging about 6 yards per attempt.
#7 Cutrell Haywood, WR – The other main target in the passing game, Haywood has 455 yards and 4 TDs this season. He’s also Idaho’s main punt returner, with a pretty good average of a little over 9 yards per return.
#3 Nick Romano, RB – Romano is a multi-purpose back, with 340 rushing and 1 TD. He’s also got the 4th most receptions on the team with 10, for 60 yards. Additionally he’s a fairly good kick returner, averaging over 28 yards per return, he’s got a TD, and will be a test for our coverage unit.
#8 Tre Walker, LB – listed at 6-1, 235 he’s the tackle leader on the team with 103 stops already this year. He’s got 7.5 TFLs but just 1.5 sacks, as well as a fumble recovery.
#1 Christian Elliss, LB – Another solid LB for Idaho, he’s 2nd on the team with 68 tackles, and has 10 TFLs / 3 sacks this season so far, he has an interception and a fumble recovery as well as 7 QB hits, which is 2nd best only to their stud LB Akanno, who is out for the season.
#5 Lloyd Hightower, DB – Just 22 tackles but this guy has 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles forced, 1 fumble recovery, and has scored 2 defensive TDs.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Success through the air. While we’ll need some balance Idaho’s strength is their linebackers and a few big 300 pounders on the D-line. We’ll need another PSU-like air performance from the Grizzly passing game, be it from Humphrey or Sneed.
2. Get the corners help. This one will be interesting, Idaho really statistically only has 2 WRs that are involved in the pass game and they don’t really go too deep much. While the Grizzly corners have had to cover all sorts of spread/wide dynamic groups, this is really just 2 main guys. With some solid help over the top it could be a good game for the corners to get some assistance and make some pressure plays.
3. Don’t let Idaho chew the clock. They have a good O-line and a combo of quick and bruising backs. Their objective will be to slow down the game, and if the Griz cannot stop that, they could succeed at it. This will be once again another unique test for the Grizzly defense, a 241 pound feature back.
4. Don’t let Idaho get up big(ger) early. Some of Idaho’s wins, or closer games, have had them holding a lead early. This goes into point #3 as well – because if they get up fast then they slow it down and play keep away. Montana has been a slow starting team this year, but they shouldn’t spot the Vandals an early double-digit lead.
5. Get Flowers and/or JLM in the endzone. Idaho has some suspect yards allowed on coverage in both cases. Could be a chance for each to maybe break one.
6. Keep rolling. Idaho’s 4th quarter looks like Montana’s from last year. Idaho’s allowed 92 points in the 4th quarter this year, if Montana can keep things rolling into that stretch it suggests they’ll wear Idaho down and be able to score often.
7. Watch for screens/draws/misdirection. I’m going to guess the Grizzly defense showed a lot of tape against PSU that Idaho may go after, trying to dump plays over the Grizzly blitz.
8. Stand tall in the red zone. Idaho’s trips will be presumably limited, but their stats on offense in the RZ aren’t great, however of late neither has the Grizzly defense. Idaho’s kicker is 50% on the year, lets force some kicks rather than allow a few TDs.
9. 150+ for Knight/Ostmo. While I think the yards are there in the pass game, I want to see this ground game keep going.
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Montana will presumably be a solid favorite, and rightfully so, however right now I’m watching the Packers lay an egg against the Chargers (almost halftime) in a game where they’re favored and clearly seem unprepared for the game. I know the Grizzly coaches and players are taking this one game at a time and I do expect them to come in Saturday prepared for a battle.
I like the Griz at home here, I think we’ll know pretty early if Idaho comes to play or is ready to fold it in. I still think our flat starts could have this game close well into the 3rd quarter. I’ll say the Griz pull away, but it takes a bit. Montana wins 41-17.
GO GRIZ!!
Idaho is an interesting team this year as they’ve had inexplicable losses at UNC and at PSU, but also some improbable wins, hosting EWU and ISU. There’s a suggestion (with good evidence) out there that Idaho still views themselves as “above” most of their competition and they get up to play teams they view their equal or their rival (EWU, Wyo, ISU, Weber) and completely mail it in otherwise. They’ve also once again been decimated by injuries – what could make their season now, is to return the Little Brown Stein to Moscow, I expect them to come to Missoula prepared to fight like hell.
The Griz, meanwhile, are on a roll and return home for a 2-game stand, if they can win 2 of their next 3 they will be a lock for a playoff bid. And now thanks to Weber beating Sac, the conference title still remains an option for Montana, but that will require winning out. First up on that front, the Griz face off against the Idaho Vandals.
Idaho Vandals 4-5
7-79 loss @ Penn State: Uh, sure. The big headline from this was the massive pay-day that UI got for this game. PSU had 683 total yards of offense.
41-31 win vs Central Washington: The game was tied 17-17 at the half, Idaho then pulled ahead in the 3rd, but CWU wouldn’t go away, scoring with 7 minutes to go in the game to get within 3. Idaho would respond with another TD to set the final score. CWU, down 10, turned the ball over on downs and UI ran out the clock. Idaho held the ball for 11:00 in the 4th quarter to keep CWU at bay. Idaho had a big game on the ground, 280 rushing, but they did allow 359 passing yards too.
16-21 loss @ Wyoming: Idaho jumped up 10-0, but Wyo worked their way back to hold a 14-10 lead at the half. In the 2nd half Idaho would hang around, kicking a few fieldgoals, and they only allowed 1 big play for Wyo… an 80 yard TD run. Idaho’s would-be final possession, with an attempt to get the win essentially went backwards, they had to punt, and never got the ball back. Wyo ran for 240… but passed for just 50 yards. Idaho had 303 total yards in the game.
35-27 win vs EWU: In a game that both teams billed as a big game leading up to this, Idaho jumped all over EWU early and held on as the Eagles scored 20 4th quarter points, but ran out of time. Idaho put up big numbers on offense, 223 rushing and 240 passing. EWU did throw for 365, but tossed a pick and lost a fumble.
24-27 loss @ UNC: Idaho was up 17-7 at the half and looking like they were going to get a W in Greeley. In the 2nd half UNC out-scored Idaho 20-7 and stunned the Vandals. After scoring a TD on their first possession in the 2nd half Idaho would miss a fieldgoal, throw 2 interceptions, and punt twice on 3 and outs.
35-41 loss vs Weber: Idaho scored with a minute to go in the game on a kickoff TD, so that made it seem a little closer than the score suggests, but Idaho was in this game every step o the way. Idaho did have an earlier 14-13 lead but otherwise was behind the whole way, they were able to not let Weber just run away from them though. Both teams had good games on the ground, Weber had 223, Idaho had 193. Idaho lost 3 fumbles in this game.
0-24 loss @ Portland State: Idaho had 236 total yards of offense and tossed 4 interceptions. PSU held the ball for 35:00 and just ground out mistake-prone Idaho.
45-21 win vs Idaho State: The battle of the domes. While ISU was considered a favorite, with their backup QB getting the start Idaho had all 45 of their points on the board by the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately a great showing from their backup QB would be tarnished as he left with an injury giving way again to Mason Petrino. Both teams went over 300 passing, Idaho forced 4 turnovers as well.
21-9 win vs Cal Poly: Idaho bottled up the potent Poly rushing offense to just 145 on the ground. Idaho had almost 250 rushing, controlled the clock, and just didn’t allow Poly to get much going.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (207 for IDAHO vs 304 for UM)
Rushing yards per game IDAHO (174 for IDAHO vs 170 for UM)
Total offense Montana (381 for IDAHO vs 474 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game IDAHO (223 for IDAHO vs 302 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (175 for IDAHO vs 117 for UM)
Total defense IDAHO (398 for IDAHO vs 419 for UM)
3-3 split!
Offense points scored Montana (24.9 for IDAHO vs 37.8 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (31.1 for IDAHO vs 25 for UM)
Turnover margin Montana – (-3 for IDAHO / +4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % Montana (50% for IDAHO vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (9.3 yards for IDAHO vs 14.7 yards for UM)
Kick Returns IDAHO (26.6 yards for IDAHO vs 22.2 yards for UM)
T.O.P. IDAHO (31:19 for IDAHO vs 30:28 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (75% IDAHO / 62% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (56% IDAHO / 64% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (36% for IDAHO / 49% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (32% allowed for IDAHO vs 33% allowed for UM)
Montana takes a big haul here, adding 9 while Idaho adds 2. That puts the total at 12 for Montana and 5 for Idaho.
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Players to Watch:
#88 Jeff Cotton, WR – One of the best in the Big Sky, especially when Mason Petrino is his QB. Cotton has 64 catches, 813 yards, and 5 TDs this season. He’s got a few kick returns in the stats too, but that doesn’t seem to be his primary job. He’s averaging exactly 8 catches per game, look for him early and often.
#22 Aundre Carter, RB – listed at 5’9” and 241 pounds, a bruiser of a back. He had a monster game against Poly too, almost 180 on the ground. He’s got 557 rushing yards and 7 TDs, with 25 more receiving yards as well.
#8 Mason Petrino, QB – Petrino, I’d posted last year, has some part of his game that reminds me of Brett Favre, in the sense that he scrambles around in the pocket/backfield a lot and can pull off some crazy stuff. However his luck has not been so great this year, 171 passing per game, 9 TDs to 7 INTs. He does have 175 rushing and 2 rushing TDs as well, so he is a bit of a threat on the ground as well. Lots of short passes, he’s averaging about 6 yards per attempt.
#7 Cutrell Haywood, WR – The other main target in the passing game, Haywood has 455 yards and 4 TDs this season. He’s also Idaho’s main punt returner, with a pretty good average of a little over 9 yards per return.
#3 Nick Romano, RB – Romano is a multi-purpose back, with 340 rushing and 1 TD. He’s also got the 4th most receptions on the team with 10, for 60 yards. Additionally he’s a fairly good kick returner, averaging over 28 yards per return, he’s got a TD, and will be a test for our coverage unit.
#8 Tre Walker, LB – listed at 6-1, 235 he’s the tackle leader on the team with 103 stops already this year. He’s got 7.5 TFLs but just 1.5 sacks, as well as a fumble recovery.
#1 Christian Elliss, LB – Another solid LB for Idaho, he’s 2nd on the team with 68 tackles, and has 10 TFLs / 3 sacks this season so far, he has an interception and a fumble recovery as well as 7 QB hits, which is 2nd best only to their stud LB Akanno, who is out for the season.
#5 Lloyd Hightower, DB – Just 22 tackles but this guy has 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles forced, 1 fumble recovery, and has scored 2 defensive TDs.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Success through the air. While we’ll need some balance Idaho’s strength is their linebackers and a few big 300 pounders on the D-line. We’ll need another PSU-like air performance from the Grizzly passing game, be it from Humphrey or Sneed.
2. Get the corners help. This one will be interesting, Idaho really statistically only has 2 WRs that are involved in the pass game and they don’t really go too deep much. While the Grizzly corners have had to cover all sorts of spread/wide dynamic groups, this is really just 2 main guys. With some solid help over the top it could be a good game for the corners to get some assistance and make some pressure plays.
3. Don’t let Idaho chew the clock. They have a good O-line and a combo of quick and bruising backs. Their objective will be to slow down the game, and if the Griz cannot stop that, they could succeed at it. This will be once again another unique test for the Grizzly defense, a 241 pound feature back.
4. Don’t let Idaho get up big(ger) early. Some of Idaho’s wins, or closer games, have had them holding a lead early. This goes into point #3 as well – because if they get up fast then they slow it down and play keep away. Montana has been a slow starting team this year, but they shouldn’t spot the Vandals an early double-digit lead.
5. Get Flowers and/or JLM in the endzone. Idaho has some suspect yards allowed on coverage in both cases. Could be a chance for each to maybe break one.
6. Keep rolling. Idaho’s 4th quarter looks like Montana’s from last year. Idaho’s allowed 92 points in the 4th quarter this year, if Montana can keep things rolling into that stretch it suggests they’ll wear Idaho down and be able to score often.
7. Watch for screens/draws/misdirection. I’m going to guess the Grizzly defense showed a lot of tape against PSU that Idaho may go after, trying to dump plays over the Grizzly blitz.
8. Stand tall in the red zone. Idaho’s trips will be presumably limited, but their stats on offense in the RZ aren’t great, however of late neither has the Grizzly defense. Idaho’s kicker is 50% on the year, lets force some kicks rather than allow a few TDs.
9. 150+ for Knight/Ostmo. While I think the yards are there in the pass game, I want to see this ground game keep going.
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Montana will presumably be a solid favorite, and rightfully so, however right now I’m watching the Packers lay an egg against the Chargers (almost halftime) in a game where they’re favored and clearly seem unprepared for the game. I know the Grizzly coaches and players are taking this one game at a time and I do expect them to come in Saturday prepared for a battle.
I like the Griz at home here, I think we’ll know pretty early if Idaho comes to play or is ready to fold it in. I still think our flat starts could have this game close well into the 3rd quarter. I’ll say the Griz pull away, but it takes a bit. Montana wins 41-17.
GO GRIZ!!
