The transfer portal (and no-sit out 1 year) will probably help UM more than it will hurt. UM will be a good choice for lower end FBS and good FCS players. UM coaches have huge contacts with other coaches in the country, which should lead to more players being steered to UM.
UM could lose a few top end players over time. The NIL money will likely be an important factor. Bigger NIL money will be very attractive to players who can attract that.
Right now, there are a huge number of players in the portal, because it's new (and players are trying it), and there is a second class of seniors in the mix due to the extra covid year. The number of players will decrease over time, but it will remain significant.
High school players, everywhere, are having a harder time finding scholarships, as so many scholarships are going to transfers (and there's double senior covid class). This could turn out to be a benefit for UM, as UM has always worked hard to get a lot of walk-ons. It may now be easier to persuade more kids, even out of staters, to be walk-ons, as they know there aren't as many scholarships for them and high schoolers are having to face reality. There is some appeal to the promise of schoolies in the future if the players earn it, as players tend to have confidence in themselves.
NIL, and the big money from it at bigger schools, is going to have a huge impact. UM probably isn't going to be hurt by that, because players who can attract big NIL money are coming to UM anyway. However, smaller NIL money is also going to have an influence. Even the promise of $10,000 or $20,000 per year will be big money to kids who have no money. See the Griz punter.
Also, the attractive and social media savvy women in sports are figuring out how to make big NIL money. See the Cavender twins from Fresno St basketball, who are in the million dollar NIL range already. The Alabama qb is a million dollar NIL guy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristidosh/2022/01/18/cavinder-twins-flex-their-muscles-as-entrepreneurs-with-their-latest-nil-deal/?sh=50b31bcc17fa
https://www.fresnobee.com/sports/college/mountain-west/fresno-state/bulldogs-basketball/article257468333.html
The LG Stiles may have missed her time on this.
We all saw the Bobcat players in a commercial later in the national championship game.
The NIL is going to upend the top of FBS football and upper crust of basketball. Texas is going to have unlimited NIL opportunities. They have many rich supporters who live sports. I wonder what the Dukes and Stanfords of the world will do. Will they try or be able, to limit? I don't see the rich Silicon Valley alums throwing a bunch of money at NIL, like Texas oil billionaire and millionaires.
