thirdandlong said:
I could give you the Kool-Aid version, or the objective version. As always, there are enough Kool-Aid versions on here, so I'll give you my honest objective version.
1) We will win our first 5 games. Gee, what a revelation, huh?
2) We will go as far within the conference games as our QB position will allow for. Understand that there are still many questions about whether Vidlak can be The Man. After all, this will be his first chance to lead a college offense. Not excited about the other options at QB. More of the "praying that our QB doesn't get injured" stuff we have lived with under Bobby 2.0.
3) The offensive sets I have seen in practice look familiar to last season. With that said, they are mostly single-back sets, and not designed to be a "run-first" offense like MSU runs. It will be a multiple offense as in the past. So, those of you thinking we can pound the rock and dominate defenses with our running game will be disappointed, in my opinion. If we expect to be a run-first team, we need to install more 2-back options, counter plays, pulling linemen, etc. instead of just trying to execute better than last season with the same O-line and similar offense.
Hopefully we will.
4) I do not think that our defense can possibly be as good as last year's defense. There is no way that we can replace Robby, O'Connell & Ford without losing some skill. These positions are not plug-and-play like some of you believe. Those three were great players, and they will be missed. I agree that our defense wore-down towards the end of last season...... primarily because our offense couldn't stay on the field after mid-season.
5) We are very thin on the D-line, both with bulk and with numbers. We had one starter leave, and another possible starter lost due to injury. The CB position is also an area of concern.
6) I predict we win 7-8 games, mainly due to a favorable schedule and 5 cup-cake games prior to conference. We will get another first round playoff game in Missoula, even if we have to buy it like last season. Will probably win that first game. Then, as usual, we will be exposed by teams who are legit threats to win a NC, and, you know the rest. We start thinking about how great we will be next season when Bobby gets his players in the system.
Just my honest thoughts.
If the offense doesn't abandon them this season, I think the defense can be more than enough. By the way, Gilliam from Davis and Skattebo from SacState lead the conference in rushing from one-back offenses. Bozeman will do their dammest to make a one back offense work, for reasons that have become all too obvious. All three teams share one thing in common, really good line play. If this line comes together, finally, and the passing strategy keeps the defenses honest, there is no reason not to believe they can move the ball effectively on the ground. Get dominated, like at Weebs last season, and all bets are off. Though I would prefer they do something more than inside zone.
Make the D-ends something more than block eaters, actually get a pass rush, the 3-3-5 might become really effective. And sorry, but Harris is a solid upgrade over McGourin. He was steady, though unspectacular after his freshman season. Harris looks like a difference-maker. Losing Nuce would be a blow, but the only way I think the line is an issue this season is an injury to someone named Gubs. And take this to the bank, the linebacking will be better than it was last season. Wilson is a special talent that will blend in nicely with the vets and rotation guys. Hauck never singles out a player to talk about, let alone one he thinks is among the best backers he's had, never having played a down for Montana. And yes, he actually did say that. I have no idea how the DB's will fare, but put a real pass rush on, change up the coverage schemes a bit, and you may have something that works well enough.
Games three and four should concern everyone. The D2 team is as far from a cupcake as you get. I expect them to give Montana a hell of a game. So does Montana. NAU could be a letdown game after a dogfight at home. I hope like hell I'm wrong.
Running QB's get dinged. Fact of life. - see bozeman last season. Vidlak can run, but he strikes me as someone who knows his strengths and that he is there to deliver the ball to the playmakers. I think he takes great pride in that, so he only runs as a last resort. Keep him upright, and he'll just keep getting better. This is allowing for Pease to have improved route trees and strategies over the "throw to the sideline" fetish Rosey had last. I too am concerned about the backup options, but less so since there is actually a second guy they've had to work hard to integrate. Which means he's gotten coaching, and though he may be holding a clipboard when the season starts, he knows what to do when the time comes.
I don't make predictions about win/loss records. My sincere hope is that there are no games where they come out flat when they have every reason to play well. I can't think that won't provide a higher seed, maybe another opportunity at home games. Finally, it's SDSU and the field this season, so I think it wise to temper expectations.