grizzlyjournal
Well-known member
The 2016-17 hoops pre-season is completed and the Montana Grizzlies -- at 5-8 with the sixth-best record in the Big Sky -- stand right about where they were predicted in pre-season polls... among the top three teams in the conference.
There’s considerable disparity, however, among the three major ranking polls (see rankings below), regarding specifically WHICH Big Sky team is the favorite going into conference play. I tend to go with the Sagarin Rankings, which tabs the Wildcats, but which also takes note of the late power surges by Portland State and Eastern Washington. Interesting that the Grizzlies are the only Big Sky team to rank among the top three in all three rankings. The Big Sky might be the toughest it's been in years. The Missoulian's Bob Meseroll had a preview story with great interviews in Sunday's paper: http://billingsgazette.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/montana-state-university/basketball-mens/big-sky-men-s-basketball-preview-usual-suspects-favored-in/article_ec8bd11c-8b52-5531-8d12-cf36cf6cb2c2.html
What does it all mean heading into conference play? Nothing much, since the only real reward in this conference is a first-round tourney bye (in Reno, Mar. 7-12) for... get this... the top five teams. Whoopee.
Of course, that might be a very good thing for the Griz, because this very talented group is still molding into a cohesive group, with 10 players in the mix to log double-digit minutes. That means that -- as good as they’ve played against tough teams -- they haven’t yet learned how to break a game open. I’m sort of amazed that this team still has such a high ceiling. They’re not even close to peak form yet. When they hit top form (this year) they can be very good.
So, without having to face any “must-win” games in this no-reward conference, the Griz can focus on some essentials, which I believe are pretty basic:
1. They have defensive potential, but are still a step slow at jump-stopping gap drives and sealing off the baseline. They’ll get a huge test this week against gap-attacking teams in Idaho State and Weber State.
2. They need more work of their own at attacking gaps on offense, particularly against zone defenses. And there is a high probability most Big Sky opponents will zone the Griz.
3. They need more work on shot selection and “confident” shooting. I believe this is a good shooting team, but they’ve put pressure on themselves early in several games with forced shots and just need practice relaxing (which is almost impossible to coach).
4. The four-guard rotation is close. Ahmaad Rorie is just now starting to look comfortable. I look forward to see how this rotation will attack Big Sky opponents.
5. Brandon Gfeller and Bobby Moorehead need that breakout game. Brandon’s close, I’m hoping it’s this weekend for both. The sooner that happens, the better.
6. Which will open up Montana’s inside game. Fabijan Krslovic is on the cusp of coming into form and is capable of 10-14 ppg, I believe. Just as important will be opportunities for Jared Samuelson to have a breakout game on offense and rebounding.
The sooner, the better, of course. But with little pressure to win conference play, this team can concentrate on the long run. The Big Sky is shaping into a much tougher conference than it’s been over the past several years. I believe any of six teams (Weber, NDak, Eastern, Portland State, Montana and a healthy Idaho ) is capable of winning it all, with MSU, ISU and UNC affecting final seeding. I am also puzzled by the slow starts by Northern Arizona and Sac State.
Go Griz.
KENPOM -- End of 2016-17 preseason BIG SKY CONF. RANKINGS
(using data from all scheduled 2016-17 games)
Team record Projected record
154 -- North Dakota 5-5 13-5
166 -- Weber State 5-6 13-5
167 -- Montana 5-8 12-6
213 -- Idaho 5-6 11-7
227 -- Portland St. 7-4 10-8
245 -- Montana St. 4-7 9-9
256 -- Eastern Wash. 8-5 9-9
267 -- Northern Colo. 4-7 9-9
296 -- Idaho State 2-10 7-11
321 -- Sacramento St. 3-8 6-12
333 -- Northern Ariz. 3-10 5-13
335 -- Southern Utah 2-11 4-14
USA TDODAY -- SAGARIN
(using data only from games involving two NCAA D1 schools)
161 Weber State = 71.37
174 Montana = 70.50
192 North Dakota = 69.66
213 Portland State = 68.19
227 Eastern Washington = 67.24
231 Idaho = 67.06
256 Montana State = 65.25
260 Northern Colorado = 65.09
308 Idaho State = 61.85
326 Sacramento State = 59.05
333 Northern Arizona = 58.06
334 Southern Utah = 57.88
NCAA TEAM RPI RANKINGS
(using data only from games involving two NCAA D1 schools)
77 Eastern Washington 0.565
131 Portland State 0.526
159 Montana 0.505
237 Weber State 0.453
248 Idaho 0.450
253 Northern Colorado 0.447
257 North Dakota 0.446
316 Montana State 0.388
318 Idaho State 0.388
324 Sacramento State 0.386
338 Northern Arizona 0.369
346 Southern Utah 0.331
There’s considerable disparity, however, among the three major ranking polls (see rankings below), regarding specifically WHICH Big Sky team is the favorite going into conference play. I tend to go with the Sagarin Rankings, which tabs the Wildcats, but which also takes note of the late power surges by Portland State and Eastern Washington. Interesting that the Grizzlies are the only Big Sky team to rank among the top three in all three rankings. The Big Sky might be the toughest it's been in years. The Missoulian's Bob Meseroll had a preview story with great interviews in Sunday's paper: http://billingsgazette.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/montana-state-university/basketball-mens/big-sky-men-s-basketball-preview-usual-suspects-favored-in/article_ec8bd11c-8b52-5531-8d12-cf36cf6cb2c2.html
What does it all mean heading into conference play? Nothing much, since the only real reward in this conference is a first-round tourney bye (in Reno, Mar. 7-12) for... get this... the top five teams. Whoopee.
Of course, that might be a very good thing for the Griz, because this very talented group is still molding into a cohesive group, with 10 players in the mix to log double-digit minutes. That means that -- as good as they’ve played against tough teams -- they haven’t yet learned how to break a game open. I’m sort of amazed that this team still has such a high ceiling. They’re not even close to peak form yet. When they hit top form (this year) they can be very good.
So, without having to face any “must-win” games in this no-reward conference, the Griz can focus on some essentials, which I believe are pretty basic:
1. They have defensive potential, but are still a step slow at jump-stopping gap drives and sealing off the baseline. They’ll get a huge test this week against gap-attacking teams in Idaho State and Weber State.
2. They need more work of their own at attacking gaps on offense, particularly against zone defenses. And there is a high probability most Big Sky opponents will zone the Griz.
3. They need more work on shot selection and “confident” shooting. I believe this is a good shooting team, but they’ve put pressure on themselves early in several games with forced shots and just need practice relaxing (which is almost impossible to coach).
4. The four-guard rotation is close. Ahmaad Rorie is just now starting to look comfortable. I look forward to see how this rotation will attack Big Sky opponents.
5. Brandon Gfeller and Bobby Moorehead need that breakout game. Brandon’s close, I’m hoping it’s this weekend for both. The sooner that happens, the better.
6. Which will open up Montana’s inside game. Fabijan Krslovic is on the cusp of coming into form and is capable of 10-14 ppg, I believe. Just as important will be opportunities for Jared Samuelson to have a breakout game on offense and rebounding.
The sooner, the better, of course. But with little pressure to win conference play, this team can concentrate on the long run. The Big Sky is shaping into a much tougher conference than it’s been over the past several years. I believe any of six teams (Weber, NDak, Eastern, Portland State, Montana and a healthy Idaho ) is capable of winning it all, with MSU, ISU and UNC affecting final seeding. I am also puzzled by the slow starts by Northern Arizona and Sac State.
Go Griz.
KENPOM -- End of 2016-17 preseason BIG SKY CONF. RANKINGS
(using data from all scheduled 2016-17 games)
Team record Projected record
154 -- North Dakota 5-5 13-5
166 -- Weber State 5-6 13-5
167 -- Montana 5-8 12-6
213 -- Idaho 5-6 11-7
227 -- Portland St. 7-4 10-8
245 -- Montana St. 4-7 9-9
256 -- Eastern Wash. 8-5 9-9
267 -- Northern Colo. 4-7 9-9
296 -- Idaho State 2-10 7-11
321 -- Sacramento St. 3-8 6-12
333 -- Northern Ariz. 3-10 5-13
335 -- Southern Utah 2-11 4-14
USA TDODAY -- SAGARIN
(using data only from games involving two NCAA D1 schools)
161 Weber State = 71.37
174 Montana = 70.50
192 North Dakota = 69.66
213 Portland State = 68.19
227 Eastern Washington = 67.24
231 Idaho = 67.06
256 Montana State = 65.25
260 Northern Colorado = 65.09
308 Idaho State = 61.85
326 Sacramento State = 59.05
333 Northern Arizona = 58.06
334 Southern Utah = 57.88
NCAA TEAM RPI RANKINGS
(using data only from games involving two NCAA D1 schools)
77 Eastern Washington 0.565
131 Portland State 0.526
159 Montana 0.505
237 Weber State 0.453
248 Idaho 0.450
253 Northern Colorado 0.447
257 North Dakota 0.446
316 Montana State 0.388
318 Idaho State 0.388
324 Sacramento State 0.386
338 Northern Arizona 0.369
346 Southern Utah 0.331
