Griz Recruiting . . . The Hype vs. The Reality

[GrizBall]

The Transfer Portal is open which means it won’t be long before the hype around the new Griz commits becomes red hot (regardless of whether they come from Duke or Yellowstone Christian College).

I thought it would be fun to take a page from football recruiting analysts and do this thing where they go back and look at how a recruiting class was viewed (ranked) at the time of signing and how it turned out. Obviously it is still too early in some of the classes, but I am I interested in your opinions (I also may have made some mistakes so please correct any). I give a grade based on my recollection of the enthusiasm (hype) around the class at the time of signing and how I felt it turned out.

Overall, I would rate the classes as average, which has shown in the team’s performance. But there is some luck involved. For example, no one would have predicted Moody would have been the star of the 2022 class and no one could have predicted curious case of Michael Steadman. There is also some player development involved. As I go through this list, Bannan is really the only one that I can say showed great improvement from where he started.

 

[GrizBall]

2019 (Hype Grade - A; Reality Grade - C)
Gaskin
Steadman
Owens
Vazquez
DCH
Darius Henderson

What was believed at the time: This was the crown jewel of recruiting classes. Steadman, who had to redshirt but the next year was named 1st team pre-season All- BSC before playing a single game. Gaskin, the Uber-athletic PAC-12 drop-down who also had to redshirt, but was getting rave reviews in practices. And Vazquez was touted as possibly breaking Montana assist records. Throw in DCH and Owens plus a big guy project in Henderson and this was perceived to a program changing class.

Reality: Gaskin never played a game and Steadman quit mid-season of his only year. Vazquez started his first college game at Stanford and performed well in that game and has had a solid, yet weird career arc in terms of playing time and starting. Owens (HM all-conference) looked to be on his way to great career after the leading the team in rebounds and scoring his sophomore year before a junior year benching and inconsistent playing time forced a transfer. DCH looked like a steal after winning FOTY, but never really matched that promise the next two years before strangely transferring to Bethune-Cookman. Henderson didn’t pan out, but I still believe was a chance worth taking.

 

[GrizBall]

2020 (Hype Grade: B-; Reality: B-)
Bannan
Whitney
Parker
Beasley
Clarke
Satterwhite

What was believed at the time: Satterwhite was the athletic defensive minded wing that had Travis excited. Parker was the true PG that would excel under DeCuire’s tutelage. Clarke and Bannan were talented and offered the possibility of an Australian pipeline and Whitney and Beasley had bona-fide Cali credentials.

Reality: Satterwhite played only 2 games. Clarke played none. Bannan with another 1-2 years can be an all-time Griz great. Parker had moments but was never a starter. Beasley left after 2 years of good basketball, one in which he as HM all-conference, but left with unfulfilled promise. Whitney has started 85 games, but has never really met the expectations after his freshman debut where he scored 17 points (a UM freshman debut record) against USC a team with NBA and NBA caliber players. If Bannan sticks around another year or two and Whitney stays, this class could top out at a B+.

 

[GrizBall]

2021 (Hype Grade C+; Reality - D-)
Martin
Braggs
Blakney

What was believed at the time: Martin coming off of a JC career where he shot 40% from 3 would become the 3-and-D wing TDC craved. Braggs from Nevada HS royalty (Bishop Gorman) would be the physical big guard TDC loves. Blakney after causing the Griz problems down low at Idaho would be a strong post-presence offense and compliment Mack’s defensive abilities.

Reality: Injuries greatly hampered Blakney’s one-year in Missoula. Braggs never played a single game. And despite starting from day 1 and 48 games over his Griz career, Martin has been average at best.

 

[GrizBall]

2022 (Hype Grade B; Reality - C+)
Moody
DI. Thomas
Do. Thomas
Nap
Brown
Oke
Kerr
Reynolds


What was believed at the time: Di. Thomas coming off a great NCAA tournament game against Michigan was the headliner and would be a game-changer. Brown despite playing NAIA had a great game against BYU and would be a good athletic guard. Oke despite coming from D-2 would be a defensive and rebounding nightmare for opponents. Nap was considered a late developer and steal of prospect. Moody, after a pedestrian 5 previous years in college would add some elite shooting.


Reality: Nap was the only freshman that contributed and it wasn’t much. Oke contributed towards the end, but still only averaged 1.7p/2.3r. Brown rarely played. Moody far exceeded even the best expectations. Di. Thomas was solid but had too many games where he disappeared, so not sure he met expectations.

I can see this class getting to a solid B. Moody would have to have another big year and Thomas needs to becomes more consistent. Oke would need to build upon last year and Nap would have to reach his potential. Not sure about the other guys, but I don’t think it’s a good sign they couldn't crack a rotation that was begging for help.

 

[UMFan12]

If ‘19 and ‘20 even half broke our way this would be a whole different program right now. COVID and a few guys just not panning out(or getting in trouble) changed the entire trajectory.

 

[Griz til I die]

Thomas is really good when he’s not in foul trouble. If he gets in foul trouble, you hardly know he exists. Look no further than the BSC tournament. He was brilliant in the games against ISU and NAU. The final 3 games of the regular season, he picked up 2 quick fouls and completely shut down! Stay out of foul trouble and I believe he’s our best player!

 

[GrizBall]

If ‘19 and ‘20 even half broke our way this would be a whole different program right now. COVID and a few guys just not panning out(or getting in trouble) changed the entire trajectory.

As I was putting this together, one of the things that really surprised me was the ‘20 class. Bannan has already made 1st and 2nd team. Parker was 6MOY, 2nd team and led the conference in assists 3x. Beasley was HM as a soph and likely would have made some all-conference team before his career ended. And with a few minor tweaks to his game, it wouldn’t surprise me if Whitney made something before his career is done. That’s potentially 4 all-conference players in one recruiting class. So even getting zero out of Clarke and Satterwhite, this class had tons more potential than I think people realize.