GRIZ Playoff chances....

[Grizzlies1982]

I posted this earlier but would like to hear your thoughts on this scenario:

Final standings:
-SUU 8-3
-NAU 7-4
-WSU 7-4
-UM 7-4
EWU 6-5

With above scenario I can see an argument for Griz getting in. SUU, WSU and UM(due to win over NAU).

There are a thousand "what if" scenarios and yours is one. It seems a highly unlikely one but if it did pan out as you show...

1. It requires Weber St to drop two games they should win handily. Possible but unlikely.
2. The So Utah / NAU results are quite possible with No Arizona beating them the final week.
3. EWU dropping another game is also possible but unlikely.
4. Requires the Griz to drop a game to one of two 'weak' teams. This bodes ill for them getting into the playoffs under any scenario.

So if your scenario plays out, I'd guess there may be just three in the playoffs. Those being So. Utah, Weber, and NAU. No Arizona is in ahead of Montana due to a big win on final weekend (SUU) coupled with a bad loss for MT (No Colorado or MSU). :ugeek:

 

[reinell30]

Isn't the Big Sky the largest conference? Currently 13 teams and soon to be 14. Four of our teams doesn't seem unreasonable due to the size of our conference.

Will stay at 13 teams when we lose UND and gain Idaho.

You are right, 4 teams isn't out of realm of possibility. We have gotten 4 teams in two other times. But it's not so black and white. It's SRS rating of the various teams, the strength of the conferences, how many other teams are in due to 8-9 wins, etc. there are so many variables. Normally 8-3 is absolutely automatic. According to the experts, too many other factors this year So 8-3 may still have its challenges.

Forgot about UND leaving. I thought I did hear of another team coming in to put us at 14 but I don't remember who it was. Old you know?

 

[grizband]

Remember, the Griz don't exist in a vacuum. This is all relative to results from other teams and conferences across FCS.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

[HookedonGriz]

Remember, the Griz don't exist in a vacuum. This is all relative to results from other teams and conferences across FCS.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

That is exactly my point, there are so many other variables. My gut tells me an 8-3 Griz team gets in and that 4 get in from the big sky, but paying attention to what's going on in our own conference and around the rest of the FCS tells me to be prepared for that to not be automatic. It just isn't automatic this year.

 

[Paytonlives]

North Carolina A&T will play Grambling in the celebration bowl. So Griz are sitting at #27

There is no way a 8-3 Griz team doesn’t make the playoffs and host a first round game

 

[PDXGrizzly]

Some scenarios have a 7-4 EWU team getting in over the Griz along with an NAU team with the same overall record and having lost to the Griz. I have a sneaking feeling that the Griz might be on the outside looking in come selection time, even at 8-3. The BSC has too much of a log jam in the top half and is not highly rated anymore. Even with winning out, the Griz will need a bunch of help.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I've seen projections at this point with anywhere from 3-4 Big Sky teams making the field. Who those teams are varies... I think if the Griz win out, getting to 8-3 they WOULD BE IN. They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and beat the #9 team in the Country (committee playoff rank at the time) with their 4th string QB at home. Eastern wouldn't be a bad loss, at the time Eastern was #11 in the Country and the game was close. The Griz had a big time rally against Weber State and just ran out of time. So the Griz would be coming in to the playoffs winning 6 out of their last 7 with a signature win. Griz will not make it at 7-4 this year, but would have last year.

Here is one prediction: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
Here in another: https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/the-crystal-ball-fcs-playoff-projections-110717

A UC-Davis win this weekend would really help the Grizzlies case. If the Jacks of Northern Arizona and UM both finish 8-3 with identical conference records, i'm not sure how you would argue NAU should make the playoffs ahead of the Grizzlies if you are using the same logic that Haley is using to pick Eastern over the Griz. I'm not so sure a 7-4 Eastern team would get in over an 8-3 Griz team. Weber State is basically a lock at this point. I think the Big Sky definitely gets 3 teams in, likely 4. So that would leave Montana, NAU and Eastern and Southern Utah for the final 2-3 spots. Montana would be coming in the hottest potentially. If Southern Utah was to lose to NAU in the final game of the season, that would be interesting. I could see 4 Big Sky teams getting in, but it also would depend on what happens in the other conferences. My belief is an 8-3 Griz team would stack up favorably when selecting the 24 teams for the FCS playoffs.

I posted this earlier but would like to hear your thoughts on this scenario:

Final standings:
-SUU 8-3
-NAU 7-4
-WSU 7-4
-UM 7-4
EWU 6-5

With above scenario I can see an argument for Griz getting in. SUU, WSU and UM(due to win over NAU).

No way the Griz get in if that plays out. That would make the BSC a 2 bid league tops, and maybe even a single.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Haley was asked on Twitter if the Griz are 8-3 and northern Arizona is 8-3 would the Griz get that third spot because of their heads up win over NAU..,, and Haley's response was NO due to the committee ranking having them at nine last week.

Seems it was a future question and he gave a past answer.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Some scenarios have a 7-4 EWU team getting in over the Griz along with an NAU team with the same overall record and having lost to the Griz. I have a sneaking feeling that the Griz might be on the outside looking in come selection time, even at 8-3. The BSC has too much of a log jam in the top half and is not highly rated anymore. Even with winning out, the Griz will need a bunch of help.

Disagree. I think 8 will be enough, 7 will not.

 

[jodcon]

Some scenarios have a 7-4 EWU team getting in over the Griz along with an NAU team with the same overall record and having lost to the Griz. I have a sneaking feeling that the Griz might be on the outside looking in come selection time, even at 8-3. The BSC has too much of a log jam in the top half and is not highly rated anymore. Even with winning out, the Griz will need a bunch of help.

Disagree. I think 8 will be enough, 7 will not.

Second that, we will probably not prevail in a huge 7-4 logjam.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Some scenarios have a 7-4 EWU team getting in over the Griz along with an NAU team with the same overall record and having lost to the Griz. I have a sneaking feeling that the Griz might be on the outside looking in come selection time, even at 8-3. The BSC has too much of a log jam in the top half and is not highly rated anymore. Even with winning out, the Griz will need a bunch of help.

Disagree. I think 8 will be enough, 7 will not.

Second that, we will probably not prevail in a huge 7-4 logjam.

Right now, I struggle to see a 7 win BSC team get in, but things can change over the last couple weeks.

 

[Jaredkuehn]

Haley thinks 3 from the Big Sky. I think we'd be lucky to get in a 4th to be honest. Big sky is ranked behind a couple of conferences this year and just has not performed well in the playoffs last few years. All of that gets taken into account.

Haley was asked on Twitter if the Griz are 8-3 and northern Arizona is 8-3 would the Griz get that third spot because of their heads up win over NAU..,, and Haley's response was NO due to the committee ranking having them at nine last week.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense but we seen it before. Northern Arizona is still ranked ahead of us even though we beat them just as the bison are ranked above the jackrabbits even though they just lost

Doesn't Craig Haley have a pretty rich history of picking against UM and the Big Sky as a whole? I recall a time when it was bad luck when he DID favor the Griz.

There is a lot football to be played around the country still. I just can't fathom how an 8-3 Montana would be left on the outside. As Kyle Sample noted, the road record plays a factor, and I think how strong you finish season also plays a factor. An 8-3 Griz team would finish the season 6 of 7 with the one loss being on the road to a likely BSC champion and seeded playoff team.

Eastern and NAU will both have at least one loss in the last three games of the season, and they both have some challenges to overcome during the next two weeks.

At 7-4, I'd say its longshot without a crazy serving of help from around the country.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Haley was asked on Twitter if the Griz are 8-3 and northern Arizona is 8-3 would the Griz get that third spot because of their heads up win over NAU..,, and Haley's response was NO due to the committee ranking having them at nine last week.

Seems it was a future question and he gave a past answer.

You lost me. Here is what I'm referring to...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/927959775916281857?s=17[/tweet]

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Haley was asked on Twitter if the Griz are 8-3 and northern Arizona is 8-3 would the Griz get that third spot because of their heads up win over NAU..,, and Haley's response was NO due to the committee ranking having them at nine last week.

Seems it was a future question and he gave a past answer.

You lost me. Here is what I'm referring to...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/927959775916281857?s=17[/tweet]

My point was if NAU gets in over UM, it will have less to do with being #9 last week and more to do with winning at SUU the last weekend.

 

[your wrong]

8-3 griz are in. Not even a question.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Haley was asked on Twitter if the Griz are 8-3 and northern Arizona is 8-3 would the Griz get that third spot because of their heads up win over NAU..,, and Haley's response was NO due to the committee ranking having them at nine last week.

Seems it was a future question and he gave a past answer.

You lost me. Here is what I'm referring to...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/927959775916281857?s=17[/tweet]

My point was if NAU gets in over UM, it will have less to do with being #9 last week and more to do with winning at SUU the last weekend.

Okay gotcha, sorry for being confused. Yes valid point indeed. So an 8-3 NAU team would have quality wins over ISU and SUU, and be ranked, and have a better strength of schedule than us. So even though Griz beat them I can see where the committee will weigh all of this and possibly leave us hanging. If they take 4 teams it's a moot point. If they only take 3 and it's between us and NAU that's where I'm saying it's not automatic...like everyone else seems to claim. What do you think

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Seems it was a future question and he gave a past answer.

You lost me. Here is what I'm referring to...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/927959775916281857?s=17[/tweet]

My point was if NAU gets in over UM, it will have less to do with being #9 last week and more to do with winning at SUU the last weekend.

Okay gotcha, sorry for being confused. Yes valid point indeed. So an 8-3 NAU team would have quality wins over ISU and SUU, and be ranked, and have a better strength of schedule than us. So even though Griz beat them I can see where the committee will weigh all of this and possibly leave us hanging. If they take 4 teams it's a moot point. If they only take 3 and it's between us and NAU that's where I'm saying it's not automatic...like everyone else seems to claim. What do you think

I think they go NAU over the Griz if both are 8-3. TBH, I don't think they get the nod over any possible 8-3 BSC team. It would seem SUU, Weber, and NAU would all be ahead of them with 8 wins.

 

[HookedonGriz]

You lost me. Here is what I'm referring to...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/927959775916281857?s=17[/tweet]

My point was if NAU gets in over UM, it will have less to do with being #9 last week and more to do with winning at SUU the last weekend.

Okay gotcha, sorry for being confused. Yes valid point indeed. So an 8-3 NAU team would have quality wins over ISU and SUU, and be ranked, and have a better strength of schedule than us. So even though Griz beat them I can see where the committee will weigh all of this and possibly leave us hanging. If they take 4 teams it's a moot point. If they only take 3 and it's between us and NAU that's where I'm saying it's not automatic...like everyone else seems to claim. What do you think

I think they go NAU over the Griz if both are 8-3. TBH, I don't think they get the nod over any possible 8-3 BSC team. It would seem SUU, Weber, and NAU would all be ahead of them with 8 wins.

As crazy as that sounds, I am with you. In the past, an 8-3 Griz team would be in automatically but this year is definitely different, and I don't think folks should think it would be automatic. It's not that cut and dry this year.

So it makes me want to vomit just to say it but we have to be Cats fans this weekend

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

My point was if NAU gets in over UM, it will have less to do with being #9 last week and more to do with winning at SUU the last weekend.

Okay gotcha, sorry for being confused. Yes valid point indeed. So an 8-3 NAU team would have quality wins over ISU and SUU, and be ranked, and have a better strength of schedule than us. So even though Griz beat them I can see where the committee will weigh all of this and possibly leave us hanging. If they take 4 teams it's a moot point. If they only take 3 and it's between us and NAU that's where I'm saying it's not automatic...like everyone else seems to claim. What do you think

I think they go NAU over the Griz if both are 8-3. TBH, I don't think they get the nod over any possible 8-3 BSC team. It would seem SUU, Weber, and NAU would all be ahead of them with 8 wins.

As crazy as that sounds, I am with you. In the past, an 8-3 Griz team would be in automatically but this year is definitely different, and I don't think folks should think it would be automatic. It's not that cut and dry this year.

Would boil down to every other FCS bubble team.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

If anyone thinks a 8-3 griz team with a loss to wash, ranked Weber and ranked EWU doesn’t get in...then they are higher than Denver. Only games are lost were games we were not favored in. EWU has lost games they were not favored in. No way EWu gets in before us if we are 8-3 and they are 7-4.