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Griz On the Playoff Bubble: PLAYOFFS still a real possibility in 2016

As Brint provided, the chances for a Griz playoff invitation are looking brighter than what most people had assumed. With a Griz win, there is likely to be some of those losses happening that would benefit the Griz. Problem is, we don't know for sure which domino's exactly get the Griz in, but several are good guesses. I believe a Griz team gets in over Northern Iowa if they both win this weekend. In all honestly the Griz are not that far off from being a 9-2 team right now. But we lost, we still have chance at 7-4 and it our own doing. We now leave it up to the playoff committee. Not the best situation to be in, but when you start to look at wins and schedules of the other bubble teams... Griz actually not that bad. You could even say the Griz are playing without their starting QB last 2 games and had a star player hurt (JLM) for the middle season. If Griz when Saturday they will be 2-1 in the final 3 games and getting healthier.
 
SloStang said:
If both Cal Poly and Montana win this weekend both will be 7-4. Cal Poly beat Montana head to head, have a top ten win over SDSU (possible MVFC Champions), will have just beat the team that beat Montana the week before and will only have 3 FCS losses compared to 4 for the Griz, and they will have a better conference record. If the Griz make it and Cal Poly does not it is not based on the two team's resume. It will only be about the committee chasing the dollars.
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It still possible that both Cal Poly and Montana make it in if they both win this weekend. That would give the Big Sky (4) teams which seems very likely at this point. EWU and North Dakota are in for sure. I think Montana gets in over Weber State. Northern Arizona and Southern Utah are not going to get in.
 
I think one of the bigger games is having NC Central lose... that for sure gets another bubble team in and that team very well could be Montana.
 
MEAC does not have an auto bid into the playoffs, as its champion will play the champion of the SWAC. Other MEAC teams can accept an at-large bid though.
 
Are those teams strong enough, or have a good enough resume to make the playoffs as an at-large? Would the FCS be willing to let a team in when that conference champion refuses to play in the playoffs? If I were on the committee I would be less inclined to be inclusive of those schools when I think the power 5 conferences in the FCS are way better than those teams in the SWAC and MEAC.
 
SloStang said:
If both Cal Poly and Montana win this weekend both will be 7-4. Cal Poly beat Montana head to head, have a top ten win over SDSU (possible MVFC Champions), will have just beat the team that beat Montana the week before and will only have 3 FCS losses compared to 4 for the Griz, and they will have a better conference record. If the Griz make it and Cal Poly does not it is not based on the two team's resume. It will only be about the committee chasing the dollars.
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Agree completely with this. I think win and Cal Poly is in no matter what else happens with anyone.
 
If Northern Colorado beats Cal Poly, ( I don't think this will happen), does N. Colorado automatically get in? I know they have the head to head win over Griz but it was anything other than a convincing win over the Griz. Their NAIA win actually hurts them. Would be interesting to see the committee and how they view all the 4 loss teams. So lets assume Cal Poly wins... they get in. Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Cal Poly.... then who from the Big Sky? In my opinion it goes Montana then Weber State. If four Big Sky teams make it, Montana is in. If 5 big sky teams make it, Weber is in. Keep in mind both Cal Poly and UNC both barely beat Montana at home. Montana easily could have won each game.
 
Regardless of the protestations to the contrary a team like Montana can buy its way in. I recognize that the bids aren't open till after the teams are selected but to suggest that the committee does not figure in to its decision those teams that have a past history of both a high bid and good attendance that first week is simply not recognizing the reality of the system. Sure, you are never going to get a committee member to admit it, but that does not mean they don't give it consideration. With all other factors being the same, ( won/loss; SOS), that team with history of a higher bid is going to get in.

Any way you slice it, that is buying your way in!
 
I don't think NoCo gets in even with a win. 6 D1 wins will hurt them and there isn't a major victory (like say Northern Iowa would get this week with a win).
 
Gaeilge1 said:
Regardless of the protestations to the contrary a team like Montana can buy its way in. I recognize that the bids aren't open till after the teams are selected but to suggest that the committee does not figure in to its decision those teams that have a past history of both a high bid and good attendance that first week is simply not recognizing the reality of the system. Sure, you are never going to get a committee member to admit it, but that does not mean they don't give it consideration. With all other factors being the same, ( won/loss; SOS), that team with history of a higher bid is going to get in.

Any way you slice it, that is buying your way in!
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Bidding though has Zero, absolutely nothing to do with playoff selection of the 24 teams in the field. It's not a criteria nor something they are supposed to consider nor is it even part of the process. Bidding is only for those teams who are "IN", the teams selected... and is THEN used to determine the home team in games where neither team are a "Seed". You can not buy your way into the playoffs, not now, not ever.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
Brother Bear said:
If Northern Colorado beats Cal Poly, ( I don't think this will happen), does N. Colorado automatically get in?
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Not automatically, and probably no.
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For the Griz, I guess we would want a Northern Colorado victory then this weekend?
 
While I agree that bidding is not one of the criteria that the committee considers in the selection process I disagree with the statement that it is not something that is part of the process. Whether it is admitted or not, attendance and potential bid are going to be considerations, particularly in a tie breaking situation.

I respectfully submit that we are simply going to have to agree to disagree on this topic.
 
To have even a .00001% chance better trounce the Scats and send a final message as to the team's potential. If can't do that against a bottom dweller at home it will be a sign they don't belong.
 
BWahlberg said:
Also lets look at other probable bubble teams:

6-4 Western Illinois hosts 3-7 Southern Illinois
6-4 Cal Poly hosts 6-4 Northern Colorado
7-3 Wofford hosts 3-7 VMI
6-4 New Hampshire hosts 6-4 Maine
7-4 UT Martin goes to 9-1 J'Ville state
5-5 Northern Iowa hosts 7-3 South Dakota State
6-4 Weber State hosts 2-7 Idaho State
7-3 Samford goes to 4-6 ETSU

You've also got some matchpus for auto-bids in the conference that could help or hurt bubble teams.

8-2 NC Central hosts 9-1 NC A&T (winner gets conference bid I think) An NC Central win probably pushes a bubble team, an A&T win probably helps bubble teams. A&T is 9th in the FCS while NC Central is 24th. I assume an NC Central loss would knock them off the bubble, too weak of a conference. However an NC Central win probably puts both them and A&T in the playoffs.

8-2 Lehigh travels to 2-8 Lafayette. Lehigh has won the Patriot, a win or loss doesn't matter, they beat Fordham their only other possible contender for the conference and hold the tie breaker over them if they lose.

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Best case for the Griz

1. A big convincing win against Montana State.

2. UT-Martin loses to J'Ville (J'ville is favored)

3. NC Central loses to NC A&T (NC A&T is favored)

***Honestly I think if those three things happen, the Grizzlies chances to keep playing football beyond Saturday are pretty good.***

Then there's UNI. A UNI win would be a help for Montana more than a hindrance. If UNI wins they're 6-5 and a bubble team. But presumably if UNI gets in, Montana gets in. As the Griz would be 7-4 and had beat UNI in their own house. There's the slight outside argument that UNI as a bubble team and playing better football down the stretch would hop over Montana though. So a UNI loss isn't that devastating for UM either, as they'd have one less bubble team to contend with

Beyond that with the other match-ups a surprise upset loss by Wofford, Western Illinois, or Samford would be a boost.

Cal Poly and UNC will result in one team being 7-4 and the other being 6-5 so one could be in while the other would be out. If UNC wins they'll only have 6 D1 wins, where if Poly wins they'd have 7. I think a Poly win would be more beneficial as they have the better resume overall.

New Hampshire vs Maine are two bubble teams as it is. Just like the Poly vs UNC game one will still have a shot while the other will be out. A quick looks suggests Maine's SoS is better than UNH's.

Weber could play a role in this too, assuming they win they're also 7-4 and would have beat Cal Poly, who beat us. A Weber loss helps the Griz big time, but I don't see that happening against Idaho State. It is in ISU... so who knows.
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Sums up the situation very well
 
Brint summed it up way better than the missoulian... I'm actually surprised the media (Griz coaches show included) seems to be out of touch with how the playoffs work along with selection and how good a chance the Griz actually have. If you would have watched the show and read the paper only you would think it a 5% chance. It's more like 70%.
 
Craig Haley predictions here, he has Griz on the bubble and not making it. He only has 3 big sky teams being selected. I feel the Big Sky deserves 4.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20161115094439482704404&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS

Would be interesting to see an unofficial "official" list of all the games Griz fans should pay attention to and who to cheer for to give the Griz the best shot at making it into the playoffs.
 
As much as I want to see the Griz make the playoffs, I can't cheer for any other teams for upsets if it would get us in. In my mind, we shouldn't have to rely on others to help us get in. We should take care of our own business and leave no doubt. If we could have gotten even 1 conference road win, we'd be locked in the playoffs at this point.

If we do get it, it's a new season and each game is an opportunity to go 1-0. I hope like hell we get in and can make some noise and get our young guys some playoff experience.
 
I'm from the stand point of get in any way you can. Like the NFL or MLB wildcard. Hockey might be better example because so many teams make it. I've seen the 8 seed in the standings, last team in make it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals. Do you think those fans cheer for their teams not to get in because they failed to meet the fans expectations?

It's good for the University if Griz make it, it's great for the Missoula community (economy), it's great for the players and coaching staff (experience)... I don't get why people wouldn't cheer for that. There are many teams fighting and clawing to get in just hoping for the chance... Shoot even at 5-5 Northern Iowa is hoping they get in. We could be 7-4! We play in a great conference, unbalanced schedule makes things wacky. Montana has been down right dominant at home. They beat a very good Northern Iowa team highly ranked at the time on the road. Two of Montana's road losses came down to basically one play. The other losses were to the preseason conference pick at their place and practicially the #1 team in the nation at their place. The Griz have a saragin ranking that suggests they are in as well as a ranking in every FCS poll that they should be in.
 
Brother Bear said:
I'm from the stand point of get in any way you can.... it's great for the players and coaching staff (experience)...
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This is the biggest benefit to us this year, IMHO.
 
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