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Griz by 5 at Minnesota

grizzlyjournal

grizzlyjournal

Well-known member
OK, I subscribe to Kenpom and I can read. He has the "resurgent" gophers -- ranked at 31 compared to Montana's 147 -- as 12-point favorites Tuesday night. That's modest... should be 16-to-22.

I've been following NCAA Div. 1 basketball for more years than most eGriz readers have lived & -- I assure you -- am not prone to cinderella picks. For instance: I would NEVER have picked Northern Colorado to beat KSU & I didn't think Weber State would be within 20 of BYU. My bad.

But, upon watching Minnesota beat Lehigh by 19, I believe the Griz -- by playing a perfect season-opening game -- match up decently against the Gophers & can win if they execute three (3) things well...

1. -- Beat the press: Minnesota pressured Lehigh full-court, all game. And while Lehigh handled it ok, it messed up their half-court offense. Montana can't afford to allow such a disruption. If Keron DeShields & Mario Dunn can handle, and occasionally beat, Minnesota's full-court pressure, the Griz could flip the flow of this game and force the gophers to adjust the game flow to Montana's half court. Where, I believe, the Griz have a better than 50-50 chance.

2. -- Stubborn half-court D: Lehigh played a decent half-court defense against Minnesota. As a result, the Gophers tossed up a lot of careless shots from 12-22 ft. If Montana could match Lehigh's defensive game... AND defensive rebounding, they would create a contest on an even playing court (providing #1 above goes ok). Granted, the Griz cannot give up many offensive boards to a taller Minnesota squad or it's curtains. Which leaves the axis of this game tilting on...

3. Montana's half-court offense: Granted, Minnesota shut-out Lehigh in the paint. On the other hand, the Gophers were absolutely bored playing half-court perimeter defense.. & got lazy. Problem was, Lehigh shot an awful % from the perimeter, which played into Minnesota's early O (the wining factor of the game). So...

The KEY to the game: is, after they beat the Gopher's full-court pressure, The Griz' first-half perimeter offense. If the Griz inside-outside half-court game can generate 12-14 points from Jordan Gregory & a few more from Kareem, Weisner & DeShields (trey, trey, trey)... and the Griz are within 6-to-8 pts. at halftime, then Kareem can take this game over with his dribble penetration & kick-out passes down the stretch.

I could happily stake my reputation on this prediction. But since I don't have a reputation to speak of, nothing really matters & this is all just pre-season/pre-game fun.

I'll leave the serious pre-game analysis to mtgrizrule, who surely has more insight to leaven (or contradict) my optimism.
 
Sorry, I try to stay away from early games when I have not seen either team. I hate projecting early season games in any sport. I did see the Gophers had a huge rebounding game from a few guys. Their back up Center had 17 boards. That is damn good against any division 1 team. Then again, it sounds like their opposition could not throw it in the ocean.

I am also worried about the lack of defensive continuity the whole game against LC. I was not surprised when Wayne admitted he was disappointed and upset with the defense from that game. I will take our perimeter game though. We will have a better perimeter game than most our opponents. I am looking forward to see how the GRIZ do against a pressing team. This will be a good measuring stick for Dunn, Deshields, Jamar, and Gregory. They are our primary ball handlers. I like Kareem creating in the halfcourt as well.

I am thinking we will be lucky to stay within 15 of them. Then again, I hope I am wrong.
 
grizzlyjournal said:
OK, I subscribe to Kenpom and I can read. He has the "resurgent" gophers -- ranked at 31 compared to Montana's 147 -- as 12-point favorites Tuesday night. That's modest... should be 16-to-22.

I've been following NCAA Div. 1 basketball for more years than most eGriz readers have lived & -- I assure you -- am not prone to cinderella picks. For instance: I would NEVER have picked Northern Colorado to beat KSU & I didn't think Weber State would be within 20 of BYU. My bad.

But, upon watching Minnesota beat Lehigh by 19, I believe the Griz -- by playing a perfect season-opening game -- match up decently against the Gophers & can win if they execute three (3) things well...

1. -- Beat the press: Minnesota pressured Lehigh full-court, all game. And while Lehigh handled it ok, it messed up their half-court offense. Montana can't afford to allow such a disruption. If Keron DeShields & Mario Dunn can handle, and occasionally beat, Minnesota's full-court pressure, the Griz could flip the flow of this game and force the gophers to adjust the game flow to Montana's half court. Where, I believe, the Griz have a better than 50-50 chance.

2. -- Stubborn half-court D: Lehigh played a decent half-court defense against Minnesota. As a result, the Gophers tossed up a lot of careless shots from 12-22 ft. If Montana could match Lehigh's defensive game... AND defensive rebounding, they would create a contest on an even playing court (providing #1 above goes ok). Granted, the Griz cannot give up many offensive boards to a taller Minnesota squad or it's curtains. Which leaves the axis of this game tilting on...

3. Montana's half-court offense: Granted, Minnesota shut-out Lehigh in the paint. On the other hand, the Gophers were absolutely bored playing half-court perimeter defense.. & got lazy. Problem was, Lehigh shot an awful % from the perimeter, which played into Minnesota's early O (the wining factor of the game). So...

The KEY to the game: is, after they beat the Gopher's full-court pressure, The Griz' first-half perimeter offense. If the Griz inside-outside half-court game can generate 12-14 points from Jordan Gregory & a few more from Kareem, Weisner & DeShields (trey, trey, trey)... and the Griz are within 6-to-8 pts. at halftime, then Kareem can take this game over with his dribble penetration & kick-out passes down the stretch.

I could happily stake my reputation on this prediction. But since I don't have a reputation to speak of, nothing really matters & this is all just pre-season/pre-game fun.

I'll leave the serious pre-game analysis to mtgrizrule, who surely has more insight to leaven (or contradict) my optimism.
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Great read...reputations are made with success. I am optimistic that UM will be ready to play at Minn. Both are good teams but I am biased and think UM can pull this off and erase the sting of one of the worst defeats ever in the NCAA tourney while Minnesota embarrassed UCLA....it is a game of contrast tomorrow night...Can't wait. Wish it were on Big Sky, alas...Kareem will impress...
 
i've always believed there are two critical positions on the court: point guard and center. if you can compete at those two positions, you will be in most games.

against ucla a couple of years ago, cherry outplayed their point guard, and qvale dominated their center, then a true freshman, and we won impressively. we have talent at the point but are inexperienced, and we lack scoring punch at the center, end of conversation. minnesota by 15.

happy to eat crow!
 
GoGriz has an audio feed (you may have to pay for it). U Minnesota also has an audio feed.

The game will be streamed through the Big Ten Digital Network for $14.95 (one month subscription) through the broader CBSSportsline Streaming network (which is not carrying the video feed). Pricey. And the "subscription" is an auto-renewal monthly billing, so you have to be vigilant w/regard to cancellation procedures.

CBSSportsline national IS doing a video broadcast of the Griz-South Dakota State game on Thursday, AND they're offering a free one-week trial subscription to their yearly service, so...

I've generally had good luck w/subscribing for a game & then canceling the specific school (or conference) service. Sometimes they'll charge you for a full month & sometimes they'll pro-rate it (which, if you cancel the next day, makes it a bargain). Hope this helps.
 
I haven't seen anything from the Griz so far but judging from the past and how we play against out of conference teams we need to rebound the ball and force them to shoot under 40%. If we can do that then we can stay in the game. Big Sky just doesn't match up well to Pac-12, Big 10, etc. Too big, too fast, too strong, too good. Kareem needs to have an MVP type game.
 
haZyskies said:
I haven't seen anything from the Griz so far but judging from the past and how we play against out of conference teams we need to rebound the ball and force them to shoot under 40%. If we can do that then we can stay in the game. Big Sky just doesn't match up well to Pac-12, Big 10, etc. Too big, too fast, too strong, too good. Kareem needs to have an MVP type game.
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Well, of course, if they go into that game with a loser's attitude it will result in a loss. However, Minnesota lost most of its power guys from last year and picked to be in the bottom third of their league. That being said, Pitino might be an excellent coach and his style is pure fast...Syracuse style defense, and they have one of the best 3 pt shooters that left with Pitino to be at Minn. If UM can force the half court by flawless ball handling, they might just be the better team. I wish it were readily available to watch....UM can most certainly compete. We have most of the nucleus of last year ready to go....
 
GrizLA said:
haZyskies said:
I haven't seen anything from the Griz so far but judging from the past and how we play against out of conference teams we need to rebound the ball and force them to shoot under 40%. If we can do that then we can stay in the game. Big Sky just doesn't match up well to Pac-12, Big 10, etc. Too big, too fast, too strong, too good. Kareem needs to have an MVP type game.
Click to expand...
Well, of course, if they go into that game with a loser's attitude it will result in a loss. However, Minnesota lost most of its power guys from last year and picked to be in the bottom third of their league. That being said, Pitino might be an excellent coach and his style is pure fast...Syracuse style defense, and they have one of the best 3 pt shooters that left with Pitino to be at Minn. If UM can force the half court by flawless ball handling, they might just be the better team. I wish it were readily available to watch....UM can most certainly compete. We have most of the nucleus of last year ready to go....
Click to expand...


Gopher fan here. Malik Smith, the guy who followed Pitino here is a solid 3- point shooter but not our best 3-point shooter. Our best 3-point shooter is Andre Hollins, one of the best guards in the Big Ten. We don't really play defense similar to Syracuse. They are exclusively zone, while we may play zone once in a while, our defense is more similar to Louisville. You guys should be a better test than Lehigh was last week. Looking forward to the game.
 
gopherman23 said:
GrizLA said:
haZyskies said:
I haven't seen anything from the Griz so far but judging from the past and how we play against out of conference teams we need to rebound the ball and force them to shoot under 40%. If we can do that then we can stay in the game. Big Sky just doesn't match up well to Pac-12, Big 10, etc. Too big, too fast, too strong, too good. Kareem needs to have an MVP type game.
Click to expand...
Well, of course, if they go into that game with a loser's attitude it will result in a loss. However, Minnesota lost most of its power guys from last year and picked to be in the bottom third of their league. That being said, Pitino might be an excellent coach and his style is pure fast...Syracuse style defense, and they have one of the best 3 pt shooters that left with Pitino to be at Minn. If UM can force the half court by flawless ball handling, they might just be the better team. I wish it were readily available to watch....UM can most certainly compete. We have most of the nucleus of last year ready to go....
Click to expand...


Gopher fan here. Malik Smith, the guy who followed Pitino here is a solid 3- point shooter but not our best 3-point shooter. Our best 3-point shooter is Andre Hollins, one of the best guards in the Big Ten. We don't really play defense similar to Syracuse. They are exclusively zone, while we may play zone once in a while, our defense is more similar to Louisville. You guys should be a better test than Lehigh was last week. Looking forward to the game.
Click to expand...
kBy the Syracuse defense I meant fast and good....the offense of Minn is very much like Louisville, and why not? He is a Pitino.
 
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