Final GPI (Estimate) & Playoffs

[Montana Gym Rat]

Here's an estimate of the final GPI. It is accurate except for the Coaches Poll which hasn't been released yet.

Rank Team
1 North Dakota St
2 Montana St
3 Sam Houston St
4 E Washington
5 Cent Arkansas
6 Cal Poly
7 Ga Southern
8 South Dakota St
9 Old Dominion
10 Illinois St
11 Appalachian St
12 Wofford
13 E Kentucky
14 Indiana St
15 Towson
16 Southern Illinois
17 Villanova
18 Youngstown St
19 Northern Arizona
20 Northern Iowa
21 Tennessee-Martin
22 E Illinois
23 Stony Brook
24 Richmond
25 McNeese St
26 New Hampshire
27 Jacksonville St
28 Southern Utah
29 Chattanooga
30 James Madison
31 Tennessee St
32 Samford
33 Sacramento St
34 Missouri St
35 Bethune-Cookman
36 Murray St
37 The Citadel
38 North Dakota
39 Lehigh
40 Montana
41 Harvard
42 Stephen F Austin
43 Coastal Car
44 Albany
45 UC Davis
46 Northern Colorado
47 Colgate
48 Southeastern Louisiana
49 Portland St
50 Maine
51 Delaware
52 Weber St
53 Furman
54 Wagner
55 Liberty
56 Brown
57 South Dakota
58 Penn
59 SE Missouri St
60 Northwestern St
61 Ark Pine Bluff
62 Drake
63 North Car A&T
64 Tennessee Tech
65 Western Illinois

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

A few interesting things to note:

- There were only 23 teams available for at-large spots who had 7 D-I wins this year. So under next year's 24 team playoff field, we would have had only 9 teams not make the playoffs that qualified.

- The MVC had three teams in the top 20 that didn't get 7 D-I wins. And a fourth that didn't get an at-large. They had a total of 7 teams in the top 20. Watch out for NDSU, Ill St, and SDSU.

UNDER-RATED (CPU Rankings vs Polls)
South Dakota State: Ranked 5th by CPUs, 20th in the Polls
Cal Poly: Ranked 6th by CPUs, 14th in the Polls
Illinois State: Ranked 8th by CPUs, 13th in the Polls
Eastern Kentucky: Ranked 12th by CPUs, 19th in the Polls
Youngstown State: Ranked 13th by CPUs, NR in the Polls

OVER-RATED (CPU Rankings vs Polls)
Lehigh: Ranked 45th by CPUs, 12th in the Polls
Colgate: Ranked 48th by CPUs, 24th in the Polls
New Hampshire: Ranked 31st by CPUs, 10th in the Polls
Bethune Cookman: Ranked 39th by CPUs, 22nd in the Polls
Stony Brook: Ranked 25th by CPUs, 11th in the Polls
James Madison: Ranked 32nd by CPUs, 17th in the Polls
Appalachian State: Ranked 17th by CPUs, 7th in the Polls
Old Dominion: Ranked 10th by CPUs, 3rd in the Polls
Wofford: Ranked 16th by CPUs, 9th in the Polls

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

Major Questions about the Bracket:

1) New Hampshire. WTF? And they aren't playing in the 1st Round? Double WTF?

2) Wagner hosts with a 3,300 capacity stadium? How did that happen?

So I will accept SDSU in the 1st Round instead of UNH.

3) SDSU/EIU & BC/CC matchups make sense geographically. The other 4 are close enough that you could go by ranking. Should have been Villanova/Wagner, and Stony Brook/Colgate. But - SB played Colgate, so go with Villanova/Colgate & Stony Brook/Wagner. Villanova host and Stony Brook host. Instead they put Villanova (17) against Stony Brook (23), and Colgate (47) against Wagner (54). The two worst teams in the playoffs get to play each other - so one of them will make it to the second round. That's terrible.

4) Geographically, SDSU/EIU to NDSU & BC/CC to ODU make sense. Villanova/Colgate should have fed to MSU, while Stony Brook/Wagner should have fed to EWU. Instead, EWU gets a cakewalk 2nd game (47th or 54th GPI) while MSU gets a solid opponent (17th or 23rd GPI).

5) Second Round. Geographically, this is a mess. The only teams close to each other are from the same conference. I understand sending Cal Poly to UCA or SHSU. App St is a lock to host. So it should have been paired: UNH @ GSU, Wof @ UCA, CP @ SHSU, Ill St @ App St. Sending UCA to GSU was not necessary, and a huge mistake by the committee.

6) Quarterfinal pairings not too bad. The games they setup for the 2nd round are probably setup the best they could be going into the Quarterfinals.

Favorable Playoff Setup:
- Eastern Washington: Basically have a bye into the Quarterfinals.
- North Dakota State: Have the most favorable Quarterfinal matchup possibilities.

Unfavorable Playoff Setup:
- Central Arkansas: Absolutely got hosed by the committee. In the discussion for a seed, and instead they have to go to Georgia Southern in the second round. 2nd worst mistake by the committee after picking UNH for an at-large.
- Montana State: Guaranteed to get a tough 2nd round game with either Stony Brook or Villanova.

 

[grizindabox]

Moving to 20 teams made geography less of a factor in deciding matchups. They still use it to a point when the schools are with 600 miles, but not even a huge consideration anymore. Also, once a team must fly to their destination, which I believe is any trip over 650 miles, then they could be sent anywhere. What they should really do is seed all the teams, but unti they do so, you will see they UCA-Ga So matchups.