FCS Upset Guesses (Nov 30)

[IdaGriz01]

I wasn’t going to do an upset guesses poll this week because I figured it would be hard to pick favorites and underdogs. But then I noticed that all the first-round games feature at least one ranked team to define a “favorite.” So here goes.

As usual, “underdog” on the left. Two picks allowed, and you can change later.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

I took No Dakota and SE Louisiana.

Overall I think the committee did a good job pairing up competitive games. Most of these have the potential to be quite close and no more than a couple appear to be potential blow outs.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I took No Dakota and SE Louisiana.

Overall I think the committee did a good job pairing up competitive games. Most of these have the potential to be quite close and no more than a couple appear to be potential blow outs.

I agree. By the Sagarin predictor (including the home-field advantage), there are five games within a field goal either way, one within a TD, and only two with a bigger spread than that. Will be hard to pick credible "upsets."

But that's what makes it interesting.

 

[kurtismichael]

Albany and Ill St.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Albany and Ill St.

Albany is one of my picks too, although the primary Sagarin numbers don't give them a huge advantage (around a field goal). But the difference in SOS is pretty big: 33.2 for Central Conn compared to 47.0 for Albany. Turns out, we have the Albany - Stony Brook game in our recorded "archive." Might change my mind after viewing some of that ... but I doubt it,

 

[krammer]

idagriz ......of all the people I know you are the expert in following teams and conferences through out the entire year.....if you would care too, taking out all the bias, which teams throughout the country will be in the semi finals after studying them the whole year in your opinion ......I get it if you don't want to, I just think it would be interesting what your take is.....thanks for what you do all year either way...

 

[IdaGriz01]

Albany and Ill St.

Albany is one of my picks too, although the primary Sagarin numbers don't give them a huge advantage (around a field goal). But the difference in SOS is pretty big: 33.2 for Central Conn compared to 47.0 for Albany. Turns out, we have the Albany - Stony Brook game in our recorded "archive." Might change my mind after viewing some of that ... but I doubt it,

Haley picks C Conn by a point: http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20191127073932713056104

Not quite sure how he gets this. The NEC offers no credible competition, so that gaudy 11-1 record for CC pretty much means nothing.

 

[#15 Fan]

I guess I don't get why Villanova gets so much love from the pollsters, they didn't have any wins vs teams in the playoffs. I don't think the CAA was that good this year outside of JMU. Albany lost to Monmouth, who early on everyone thought wasn't a good opponent when we played them and beat them soundly. SE LA has that ass-whoopin over Cent Ark, and with home-field against Nova I think they win.

 

[The.Real.2506]

Albany and Ill St.

Albany is one of my picks too, although the primary Sagarin numbers don't give them a huge advantage (around a field goal). But the difference in SOS is pretty big: 33.2 for Central Conn compared to 47.0 for Albany. Turns out, we have the Albany - Stony Brook game in our recorded "archive." Might change my mind after viewing some of that ... but I doubt it,

Haley picks C Conn by a point: http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20191127073932713056104

Not quite sure how he gets this. The NEC offers no credible competition, so that gaudy 11-1 record for CC pretty much means nothing.

He's hoping for a match up with MSU, statistically they appear to have a rush defense (#3 nationally)

 

[AZGrizFan]

Well I picked two, but I think there'll be four.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well I picked two, but I think there'll be four.

Since the "favorites" are based on who the pollsters ranked higher in the final poll, I totally agreed. Even more than four "upsets" would not be a huge surprise.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Albany and Ill St.

Albany is one of my picks too, although the primary Sagarin numbers don't give them a huge advantage (around a field goal). But the difference in SOS is pretty big: 33.2 for Central Conn compared to 47.0 for Albany. Turns out, we have the Albany - Stony Brook game in our recorded "archive." Might change my mind after viewing some of that ... but I doubt it,

We did watch the Albany - Stony Brook game, and -- to be blunt -- I was underwhelmed by Albany's performance. Stony was not very good this year (5-7, 2-6 in conference), but they gave Albany a lot of trouble. I still think the Danes will win, but I now think the game could be a struggle.

 

[IdaGriz01]

The Sagarin predictor has Monmouth favored at home by a touchdown against Holy Cross. (That’s not the biggest mismatch out there, BTW). Statistically, however, the situation looks much more bleak … in line with zero votes for an upset there.

Based on the NCAA offensive categories, it’s hard to see how the Crusaders can score on Monmouth. They are ranked #67, #82 and #91 in the key offensive categories: passing, rushing, and scoring. So they have to depend upon their defense, which is good but not great. On the other side, Monmouth looks like it might be able to score at will (they are #11 in scoring, at 36.3 points per game).

Normally, I’d put in some weasel words about the Hawks needing to “show up,” rather than reading stuff like this that says they should win easily. But I think they will come out with their hair on fair. Wouldn’t you, if you had 10 regular-season wins, but still had to play in the first round? And their only two losses were to the #6 seed and to a decent (7-5) FBS team.

I’m generally not very good at predicting scores, but I’m thinking 34-16, Monmouth. It could get uglier if the Hawks come out really pissed off … we’ve seen them play against more than the Griz, and they are a very good team. Could they upset the #2 seed in the next round? Have to think about that.

 

[AZDoc]

Albany and UND. Illinois State was #3

 

[IdaGriz01]

The Sagarin predictor has Monmouth favored at home by a touchdown against Holy Cross. (That’s not the biggest mismatch out there, BTW). Statistically, however, the situation looks much more bleak … in line with zero votes for an upset there.

...

Interesting. Two votes now for a Holy Cross upset. Does somebody know something the rest of us don't? :?

 

[IdaGriz01]

With five of the eight games ending as “upsets,” getting two picks right wasn’t such a great feat. (Yes, both of mine were right.) Of course, some of the designated favorites and underdogs were pretty arbitrary this time around. Still, the #1 vote getter (#24 UND over #19 Nicholls) did not work out so well, with ND getting pounded 24-6.

Aside from the win by unranked SE Louisiana over #8 Villanova, I had two takeaways. First, San Diego gave Northern Iowa way more trouble than anyone could have expected. Second, I honestly never expected Holy Cross to score 27 points against Monmouth. That game got out of hand early, so we didn’t watch closely, but it seemed like the Hawks must have run the twos and threes out there pretty early.

 

[kurtismichael]

Got both of mine right for a change, but didn’t go out on a limb much like you said above IdaGriz.