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FCS STATS Poll, Oct 13 (Griz #4)

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
The Griz did not lose enough votes to drop below the kitties, as some on here thought they might. Meanwhile, the pollsters were a bit harder on Southern Illinois than I expected … they did not stay in the top-10. It was hard to guess what they would do with Idaho. I, personally, thought the Spuds could/should drop out of the top-25. The pollsters did not agree, but they hammered the Spuds down to almost out of the top-25.

Link to STATS. com article:
theanalyst.com

Southland Conference Teams on the Rise in Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll | Opta Analyst

The Southland Conference is back to having two teams, and it's nearly three, ranked in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll.
theanalyst.com theanalyst.com

Condensed version:
Rank, Team (Record), Poll Points [Previous Rank]
1. North Dakota State (6-0) 1,399 [1]
2. South Dakota State (6-0) 1,340 [2]
3. Tarleton State (7-0) 1,265 [3]
4. Montana (6-0) 1,222 [4]
5. Montana State (5-2) 1,206 [5]
6. UC Davis (5-1) 1,086 [6]
7. Lehigh (7-0) 1,023 [7]
8. Tennessee Tech (6-0) 954 [10]
9. North Dakota (4-2) 869 [13]
10. Illinois State (4-2) 866 [9]
11. Monmouth (5-1) 846 [12]
12. Southern Illinois (4-2) 812 [8]
13. Abilene Christian (4-3) 560 [19]
14. Jackson State (5-1) 557 [15]
15. Villanova (4-2) 521 [18]
16. Rhode Island (5-2) 512 [17]
17. Lamar (5-1) 454 [20]
18. Harvard (4-0) 435 [22]
19. Northern Arizona (4-3) 376 [14]
20. Mercer (5-1) 359 [25]
21. Presbyterian (6-0) 299 [24]
22. South Dakota (4-3) 257 [23]
23. Austin Peay (4-3) 224 [16]
24. Idaho (2-4) 183 [11]
25. Stephen F. Austin (4-2) 152 [NR]

Dropped Out of Top 25: West Georgia [21]

Others Receiving Votes: West Georgia (5-2): 126; SE Louisiana (4-2): 96; Gardner-Webb (4-2): 54; Sacramento State (3-3): 28; Brown (3-1): 25; Youngstown State (3-3): 23; Western Carolina (4-3): 23; North Carolina Central (5-2): 18; Northern Colorado (3-3): 9; Eastern Kentucky (3-3): 5; Lafayette (5-2): 5
 
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Interesting to see that Northern Colorado received 9 votes for the top 25 (which is deserved). The last time Northern Colorado received votes in the Top 25 poll, it was back in 2016.

They moved to the FCS in 2007.
 
Mavman said:
Nau should be dropped out. They are being exposed as the middle of the pack team they are every year.
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NAU has done nothing this year to show they are a top 25 team. Their one ‘good’ win, Incarnate Ward, now just shows their ability to beat a lower-middle FCS team at home.
 
MSU shouldn’t be in the top 5 and NAU shouldn’t be in the top 25 in my opinion. MSU has yet to beat a playoff quality opponent, I do not see NAU as one of the teams making the field at the end of this season.
 
The Cats have 3 chances to beat playoff teams at the end of the season with the Griz, UC Davis and possibly Northern Colorado. Until those games I think MSU will continue to be overrated every week.
 
Comments
First small matter of interest is that North Dakota is now ranked in the top-10. Griz win looking better and better (UND’s other loss was to FBS-ranked Kansas State).

Some pity for Illinois State: They won, but apparently didn’t pound Murray State (yes, they’re crap) enough and dropped a spot.

What’s up with Abilene Christian? I figured they’d move up some after their decisive win … but six spots? On the other end, the pollsters dropped West Georgia out of the top-25, even though they lost to a higher-ranked team. Seems like there must be a back story here that the rest of us don’t know about.

Mercer is another team that benefited from some unusual generosity by the pollsters. I figured they would move up some after their decisive road win at Princeton. And they did, but five spots is a bit of a surprise.

Of course, Idaho got a little of that love too. The Spuds dropped a bit more than I projected, but did hang on in the top-25.

A question that comes up each week is: What the heck is Tarleton State doing at #3? Then we usually grumble about their weak schedule. So I asked myself if that was justified. It’s hard to get a good consensus on Strength of Schedule, since the rating services seem to each have their own way of deriving their numbers. So I did a survey of several (started with Sagarin, then on to three or four more). Well, by the numbers, our skepticism is justified. Here are a few rough average SOS rankings:
Northern Arizona 44
Stephen F. Austin 48
North Dakota State 58
Montana 63
Stony Brook 86
Presbyterian 89
Tarleton State 90

The good ranks for NAU and SFA perhaps benefited from the fact that they didn’t get absolutely crushed by their FBS opponent. I expected NDSU to rank higher, but they didn’t play their usual FBS opponent this year. Of course, the Griz ranking would be lowered by our one D-II opponent. But nobody gave Tarleton State a good SOS ranking. For comparison, I included Presbyterian, currently ranked #21. Then I threw in Stony Brook (3-3), which isn’t even getting any votes in the STATS poll.

Why do the Texans keep getting so many votes? I suppose it’s the “glamor” of their upset of Army. It happens we watched that game. First game for Army, they hadn’t gelled yet and they played like absolute crap. Aside from that, Tarleton has played the absolute dregs of the FCS: Two of their opponents have not yet won a game and they have a cumulative 6-29 record. C’mon! pollsters.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Comments
First small matter of interest is that North Dakota is now ranked in the top-10. Griz win looking better and better (UND’s other loss was to FBS-ranked Kansas State).

Some pity for Illinois State: They won, but apparently didn’t pound Murray State (yes, they’re crap) enough and dropped a spot.

What’s up with Abilene Christian? I figured they’d move up some after their decisive win … but six spots? On the other end, the pollsters dropped West Georgia out of the top-25, even though they lost to a higher-ranked team. Seems like there must be a back story here that the rest of us don’t know about.

Mercer is another team that benefited from some unusual generosity by the pollsters. I figured they would move up some after their decisive road win at Princeton. And they did, but five spots is a bit of a surprise.

Of course, Idaho got a little of that love too. The Spuds dropped a bit more than I projected, but did hang on in the top-25.

A question that comes up each week is: What the heck is Tarleton State doing at #3? Then we usually grumble about their weak schedule. So I asked myself if that was justified. It’s hard to get a good consensus on Strength of Schedule, since the rating services seem to each have their own way of deriving their numbers. So I did a survey of several (started with Sagarin, then on to three or four more). Well, by the numbers, our skepticism is justified. Here are a few rough average SOS rankings:
Northern Arizona 44
Stephen F. Austin 48
North Dakota State 58
Montana 63
Stony Brook 86
Presbyterian 89
Tarleton State 90

The good ranks for NAU and SFA perhaps benefited from the fact that they didn’t get absolutely crushed by their FBS opponent. I expected NDSU to rank higher, but they didn’t play their usual FBS opponent this year. Of course, the Griz ranking would be lowered by our one D-II opponent. But nobody gave Tarleton State a good SOS ranking. For comparison, I included Presbyterian, currently ranked #21. Then I threw in Stony Brook (3-3), which isn’t even getting any votes in the STATS poll.

Why do the Texans keep getting so many votes? I suppose it’s the “glamor” of their upset of Army. It happens we watched that game. First game for Army, they hadn’t gelled yet and they played like absolute crap. Aside from that, Tarleton has played the absolute dregs of the FCS: Two of their opponents have not yet won a game and they have a cumulative 6-29 record. C’mon! pollsters.
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Strength of schedule is an overrated statistic if the team didn’t win those games. Why should MSU get any reward for looking like the Hellgate Knights against Oregon just because Oregon is a top FBS team?
 
5280Griz said:
Strength of schedule is an overrated statistic if the team didn’t win those games. Why should MSU get any reward for looking like the Hellgate Knights against Oregon just because Oregon is a top FBS team?
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Some sites do factor the score differential into their equation, so a total beat-down does not help the loser's SOS and may actually hurt it. That's what some say anyway, but you really can't tell where that's true or not.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Comments
First small matter of interest is that North Dakota is now ranked in the top-10. Griz win looking better and better (UND’s other loss was to FBS-ranked Kansas State).

Some pity for Illinois State: They won, but apparently didn’t pound Murray State (yes, they’re crap) enough and dropped a spot.

What’s up with Abilene Christian? I figured they’d move up some after their decisive win … but six spots? On the other end, the pollsters dropped West Georgia out of the top-25, even though they lost to a higher-ranked team. Seems like there must be a back story here that the rest of us don’t know about.

Mercer is another team that benefited from some unusual generosity by the pollsters. I figured they would move up some after their decisive road win at Princeton. And they did, but five spots is a bit of a surprise.

Of course, Idaho got a little of that love too. The Spuds dropped a bit more than I projected, but did hang on in the top-25.

A question that comes up each week is: What the heck is Tarleton State doing at #3? Then we usually grumble about their weak schedule. So I asked myself if that was justified. It’s hard to get a good consensus on Strength of Schedule, since the rating services seem to each have their own way of deriving their numbers. So I did a survey of several (started with Sagarin, then on to three or four more). Well, by the numbers, our skepticism is justified. Here are a few rough average SOS rankings:
Northern Arizona 44
Stephen F. Austin 48
North Dakota State 58
Montana 63
Stony Brook 86
Presbyterian 89
Tarleton State 90

The good ranks for NAU and SFA perhaps benefited from the fact that they didn’t get absolutely crushed by their FBS opponent. I expected NDSU to rank higher, but they didn’t play their usual FBS opponent this year. Of course, the Griz ranking would be lowered by our one D-II opponent. But nobody gave Tarleton State a good SOS ranking. For comparison, I included Presbyterian, currently ranked #21. Then I threw in Stony Brook (3-3), which isn’t even getting any votes in the STATS poll.

Why do the Texans keep getting so many votes? I suppose it’s the “glamor” of their upset of Army. It happens we watched that game. First game for Army, they hadn’t gelled yet and they played like absolute crap. Aside from that, Tarleton has played the absolute dregs of the FCS: Two of their opponents have not yet won a game and they have a cumulative 6-29 record. C’mon! pollsters.
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I watched most of the Army/Tarleton game too, and thought Army looked weak and Tarleton was nothing special. Thanks for your info and analysis.
 
Rather than talking that same ole “bubs” bullshit, let’s paint a clear picture here boys.

The Cats are catching their stride and the Griz are proving their grit.

When it all shakes out, the last game of the year will be for the Big Sky Conference and the #2 seed in the FCS playoffs.

If the Dakotas & Montanas each have an unbeaten squad- that’s 1&2. Tarleton as a #2 seed would be an insult to FCS football and an absolute disgrace.

Kick ass, handle business and we’re home for the playoffs. Go Griz
 
Downwiththefoe1984 said:
Rather than talking that same ole “bubs” bullshit, let’s paint a clear picture here boys.

The Cats are catching their stride and the Griz are proving their grit.

When it all shakes out, the last game of the year will be for the Big Sky Conference and the #2 seed in the FCS playoffs.

If the Dakotas & Montanas each have an unbeaten squad- that’s 1&2. Tarleton as a #2 seed would be an insult to FCS football and an absolute disgrace.

Kick ass, handle business and we’re home for the playoffs. Go Griz
Click to expand...
Agree, but MSU cannot overlook UC Davis. They play them right before Griz/Cat. If UCD takes care of business for the remainder of their schedule, it could be the #4 and #5 teams playing for their playoff positioning. We will see how good UCD is this week when they play Northern Colorado. MSU will have to prep for UCD and then travel to Missoula. No picnic for them.
 
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