FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Sept 8)

[IdaGriz01]

Most of the losses by ranked teams were to FBS opponents, so I hesitated before going ahead with a “Guesses” post this week. But some of the results were actually pretty interesting … so here it is.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (2-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (1-1) [2]
#3 South Dakota State (1-1) [3]
#4 Eastern Washington (1-1) [4]
#5 UC Davis (1-1) [5]
#6 Maine (1-1) [6]
#7 Weber State (1-1) [7]
#8 Towson (2-0) [8]
#9 Kennesaw State (1-1) [9]
#10 Nicholls (0-1) [10]
#11 Northern Iowa (1-1) [11]
#12 Montana State (1-1) [13]
#13 North Carolina A&T (1-1) [15]
#14 Illinois State (1-1) [16]
#15 SE Missouri State (1-1) [12]
#16 Furman (1-1) [17]
#17 Jacksonville State (1-1) [18]
#18 Wofford (0-1) [19]
#19 Montana (2-0) [22]
#20 Indiana State (0-2) [14]
#21 Central Arkansas (2-0) [20]
#22 Delaware (2-0) [21]
#23 SE Louisiana (1-0) [23]
#24 Villanova (2-0) [24]
#25 Southern Illinois (1-1) NR

NR SHSU (1-1) [25]

I’ll post my comments separately so people can respond without quoting the entire list.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I do not think the losses by Maine and Kennesaw State to FBS opponents will hurt them at all. In fact, Kennesaw might just nudge up a spot because they took Kent State into OT.

My normal formula calls for about a three-spot drop when a ranked team loses to another ranked team. That puts SEMO down to #15 … they did lose fairly decisively, but they were on the road. However, Furman looked damned impressive against FBS Georgia State. It would not surprise me to see them nudge into #15, just ahead of SEMO.

Indiana State will be punished not just for the loss, but because (1) it was to a team that has barely played .500 ball for the past two years in the weak Pioneer League and (2) they were at home. So I sent them down “the usual” six spots. I can easily see the pollsters dropping them a couple more. That big drop allowed several teams to bump up one spot … including two with losses to FBS opponents.

Last week, the pollsters somewhat surprised me by moving the Griz up one spot more than I expected. The way UM pounded North Alabama should help continue that trend … partly because of UNA’s impressive win last week. Three other factors play into that guess. First, Central Arkansas struggled against Austin Peay (they were losing for most of the game). Second, Delaware had to go into triple OT to beat Rhode Island. And finally, the big drop I expect for Indiana State moved the Griz up one more spot than I might have otherwise. On the other hand, I can see the pollsters being totally unimpressed by a Griz home win, and leaving them right where they started the weekend.

Last but not least: I think that the way Southern Illinois absolutely pummeled UMass will get the pollsters attention. (Yes, I know that UMass is crap, but they are still FBS and they were at home.) Question is: Where to put them? I’m going out on a limb and say that the pollsters won’t be that impressed by how Sam Houston State ran up the score on an NAIA opponent.

Alternative: Seems like some possibility that the 0-2 record for Indiana State will get them dropped out of the top-25 … sticks out like a sore thumb. Then everybody would move up one (including SHSU), with SIU still slotting in at the bottom.

 

[uofmman1122]

I wouldn't be surprised to see us move into the #15-#16 territory, and I think it has a lot to do with the fact that we historically tend to get a big bump when we blow teams out. I could see us leap-frogging JSU, Wofford, and SEMO in your poll outcome.

 

[rocklobster]

I think #13 or 14! I also think us & MSU will be right next to each other in the top 25-either us one up on them or them one up on us!
Next week will say if we deserve to stay there, or move up!
Go Griz

 

[IdaGriz01]

RE: The possibility of Griz moving to #13-16.

Could happen. These early-season polls can be really wonky, with all kinds of wide swings in position. I have no choice but to use my normal "formulas" ... which are based on a larger body of work later in the season. Going to be interesting.

 

[pussycatkillerz]

Athlon has us at 15

 

[Grizbballfan14]

We moved up into a tie with Deleware for 18th in the coaches poll. Cats are 15th

 

[DuCharme]

Griz climb up 5 spots to #18 in the coaches poll. Tied with YouDee.

 

[84GRIZ]

I would think UC Davis would drop from the top 5 after it's close win at San Diego (non-scholarship). They were tied at 28 at the end of the 3rd quarter and were behind in the 4th until they scored with 3 minutes left. San Diego got crushed by Cal Poly the week before, it was 52 to 14 before Cal Poly called off the dogs.