IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With the disappointment of yesterday’s result, I debated whether or not to even do my guesses. Then I realized that the Griz had a lot company, with an amazing eight other ranked teams losing. Also, unlike the Griz, four of those teams lost to unranked opponents. In that context, I decided that maybe the Griz won’t fall as far as my initial thought.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (8-1) [1]
#2 Sac State (8-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (7-1) [3]
#4 NDSU (6-2) [4]
#5 Weber State (7-1) [5]
#6 Holy Cross (8-0) [5]
#7 Incarnate Word (8-1) [8]
#8 Jackson State (8-0) [9]
#9 W&M (7-1) [10]
#10 Samford (7-1) [13]
#11 Chattanooga (6-2) [7]
#12 Mercer (7-2) [16]
#13 Richmond (6-2) [17]
#14 New Hampshire (6-2) [19]
#15 Delaware (6-2) [12]
#16 UT Martin (5-3) [21]
#17 Idaho (5-3) [14]
#18 Montana (5-3) [11]
#19 North Dakota (5-3) [23]
#20 Furman (7-2) [24]
#21 Rhode Island (5-3) [18]
#22 Elom (6-3) NR
#23 SE Missouri State (6-2) [15]
#24 Villanova (5-3) NR
#25 Fordham (6-2) [22]
SIU (5-4) [20]
Austin Peay (5-3) [25]
As noted above, over a third of the ranked teams, lost this weekend. The loss by Chattanooga was not a big shocker, as suggested in my Upset Guesses thread. I do not expect Chatty to drop a lot since they was at ranked Furman. Still, just for drill, I’m guessing the pollsters will drop them to just below the Paladins.
Montana is the next loss in order, But I’ll wait until I’ve made my other cases.
Delaware’s star QB played with his non-throwing shoulder in a harness, but did all right anyway. Despite that, the Blue Hens did their usual late-season el foldo and lost to unranked Elon. However, because Elon has been in and out of the top-25, I’m thinking the pollster will not punish them as much as usual. But I could easily see them dropping a couple more spots.
Idaho played Sac State tough on the road. I think the pollsters will now appreciate just how good Sac is, so I do not think the Spuds will drop a lot.
SE Missouri State lost at home to an unranked opponent. Despite a good W-L record, I’m guessing the pollsters will hammer them down a lot. But perhaps not … but I think they will to at least #21.
I don’t expect Rhode Island to drop too much, after their road lost to ranked William & Mary. Maybe one more spot, but that should be it.
I’m thinking that Southern Illinois will be dropped out of the top-25. Even though the pollsters love Northern Iowa, I don’t think the Saluki’s 5-4 record can hold up. Elon’s win over Delaware is almost certain to bump them back into the top-25 to fill this spot.
Finally, we get down to Austin Peay. Sitting at #25, you simply cannot afford to lose a game. I think the pollsters will elevate Villanova to fill that spot, although Eastern Kentucky is another good candidate.
All that brings us back to Montana. A loss to a highly ranked opponent usually leads to a drop of three or four spots (as in several examples above). On that basis, the Griz could stay as high as #14 or 15. The problem, of course, is those three losses in a row … even though they were to ranked teams. (Yes, I know Idaho wasn’t ranked at the time, but the pollsters have since corrected that oversight.) So I’m guessing that UM will be punished by three/four addition spots. Which has the virtue of placing the Griz in a block of other (5-3) teams. That seems very reasonable to me.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (8-1) [1]
#2 Sac State (8-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (7-1) [3]
#4 NDSU (6-2) [4]
#5 Weber State (7-1) [5]
#6 Holy Cross (8-0) [5]
#7 Incarnate Word (8-1) [8]
#8 Jackson State (8-0) [9]
#9 W&M (7-1) [10]
#10 Samford (7-1) [13]
#11 Chattanooga (6-2) [7]
#12 Mercer (7-2) [16]
#13 Richmond (6-2) [17]
#14 New Hampshire (6-2) [19]
#15 Delaware (6-2) [12]
#16 UT Martin (5-3) [21]
#17 Idaho (5-3) [14]
#18 Montana (5-3) [11]
#19 North Dakota (5-3) [23]
#20 Furman (7-2) [24]
#21 Rhode Island (5-3) [18]
#22 Elom (6-3) NR
#23 SE Missouri State (6-2) [15]
#24 Villanova (5-3) NR
#25 Fordham (6-2) [22]
SIU (5-4) [20]
Austin Peay (5-3) [25]
As noted above, over a third of the ranked teams, lost this weekend. The loss by Chattanooga was not a big shocker, as suggested in my Upset Guesses thread. I do not expect Chatty to drop a lot since they was at ranked Furman. Still, just for drill, I’m guessing the pollsters will drop them to just below the Paladins.
Montana is the next loss in order, But I’ll wait until I’ve made my other cases.
Delaware’s star QB played with his non-throwing shoulder in a harness, but did all right anyway. Despite that, the Blue Hens did their usual late-season el foldo and lost to unranked Elon. However, because Elon has been in and out of the top-25, I’m thinking the pollster will not punish them as much as usual. But I could easily see them dropping a couple more spots.
Idaho played Sac State tough on the road. I think the pollsters will now appreciate just how good Sac is, so I do not think the Spuds will drop a lot.
SE Missouri State lost at home to an unranked opponent. Despite a good W-L record, I’m guessing the pollsters will hammer them down a lot. But perhaps not … but I think they will to at least #21.
I don’t expect Rhode Island to drop too much, after their road lost to ranked William & Mary. Maybe one more spot, but that should be it.
I’m thinking that Southern Illinois will be dropped out of the top-25. Even though the pollsters love Northern Iowa, I don’t think the Saluki’s 5-4 record can hold up. Elon’s win over Delaware is almost certain to bump them back into the top-25 to fill this spot.
Finally, we get down to Austin Peay. Sitting at #25, you simply cannot afford to lose a game. I think the pollsters will elevate Villanova to fill that spot, although Eastern Kentucky is another good candidate.
All that brings us back to Montana. A loss to a highly ranked opponent usually leads to a drop of three or four spots (as in several examples above). On that basis, the Griz could stay as high as #14 or 15. The problem, of course, is those three losses in a row … even though they were to ranked teams. (Yes, I know Idaho wasn’t ranked at the time, but the pollsters have since corrected that oversight.) So I’m guessing that UM will be punished by three/four addition spots. Which has the virtue of placing the Griz in a block of other (5-3) teams. That seems very reasonable to me.
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