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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 27)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
With eight ranked teams losing, there is bound to be another big shakeup in the rankings. However, half of those loses were to other ranked teams, so it shouldn’t be quite the blood bath it might have been.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (8-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [2]
#3 Weber State (6-2) [4]
#4 South Dakota State (6-2) [3]
#5 Kennesaw State (7-1) [6]
#6 Sacramento State (6-2) [7]
#7 Illinois State (6-2) [8]
#8 Montana (6-2) [10]
#9 Northern Iowa (5-3) [11]
#10 Villanova (6-2) [5]
#11 Central Arkansas (6-2) [12]
#12 Princeton (6-0) [13]
#13 Furman (5-3) [14]
#14 Dartmouth (6-0) [17]
#15 North Carolina A&T (5-2) [18]
#16 Florida A&M (7-1) [20]
#17 Montana State (5-3) [9]
#18 Central Connecticut (7-1) [23]
#19 SEMo State (5-3) [24]
#20 Towson (4-4) [16]
#21 Jacksonville State (6-3) [25]
#22 Stony Brook (5-3) NR
#23 Nicholls (4-4) [15]
#24 Wofford (5-2) NR
#25 SHSU (5-4) [21]

NR Delaware (4-4) [19]
NR UC Davis (4-5) [22]

The first thing you might notice is that #3 SDSU only slipped a spot, when two or three is more normal. That’s not just because they played NDSU pretty tough (which they did). Dropping them two or three would have put the Jacks’ below Kennesaw State and I thought … “No way.” I think the pollsters will see it that way too.

#5 Villanova, on the other hand, lost a home game to an unranked Stony Brook team. Still, because Stony is actually a pretty good team, I only dropped ‘Nova by five. I could easily see them dropping another spot or two. On the flip side, I invoked my new mid-season rule and jumped Stony Brook into the top-25.

You will note that I expect the pollsters to crush #9 MSU after their lost to unranked North Dakota, even though the kitties still have a winning record. But that is also two losses in a row for MSU, so it would not shock me to seem them go even lower.

#15 Nicholls also lost to an unranked opponent and it was also their second loss in a row. I slammed them pretty good and it would not surprise me to see the pollsters hit them even harder.

#16 Towson lost to a high-ranked team, so they might not drop quite as much as I’m guessing. On the other hand, the pollsters could be much harsher on the Tigers … they are now just 1-3 in the CAA.

Next in line came #19 Delaware. They lost a home game to unranked, and not very good, Richmond. Richmond did not receive any votes in last week’s poll, so I think Delaware drops out of the top-25.

#21 Sam Houston State lost on the road by just 4 points to a pretty good #12 Central Arkansas (6-2) team. I’m guessing they will barely hang onto a spot in the top-25.

The same cannot be said for #22 UC-Davis. As we’ve seen most times before, teams ranked in the bottom three or so simply cannot afford to lose a game, even if it is to a highly ranked opponent. I replaced them with Wofford, the second highest “Other” vote-getter in last week’s poll. (The top Other vote-getter, UT-Martin, lost.)
 
Nice work, Ida. I’m with you on MSU’s drop, but I don’t see them going any lower than 17. The pollsters have really been generous to the Bobcats this year with a lot of lackluster play. It’ll be interesting to see how many more first place votes JMU gets in the eGriz Poll after the Bizons’s narrow escape. JMU has been getting more love each week. Good stuff, thx!
 
2011BisonAlumni said:
I’d rank UND Fighting Hawks at this point. 5-3 record with wins over Sam Houston and Montana State.
Had another spot in the top-25 opened up, I might well have moved them in. Beyond that, two problems: (1) Their win against MSU comes across as a bit flukey. (2) They received only 9 votes in last week's poll, so they were not really on anyone's radar. I expect they'll move way up among the "Others" receiving votes tomorrow.
 
CDAGRIZ said:
Nice work, Ida. I’m with you on MSU’s drop, but I don’t see them going any lower than 17. The pollsters have really been generous to the Bobcats this year with a lot of lackluster play. It’ll be interesting to see how many more first place votes JMU gets in the eGriz Poll after the Bizons’s narrow escape. JMU has been getting more love each week. Good stuff, thx!

JMU was taken to OT a few weeks ago by Stony Brook. They have beat one top 10 team all year. They have a loss.

How in the hell do you rank them ahead of an unbeaten NDSU team, who has played the toughest schedule in the FCS and has 4 wins over top 10 ranked teams?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
I’d rank UND Fighting Hawks at this point. 5-3 record with wins over Sam Houston and Montana State.
Had another spot in the top-25 opened up, I might well have moved them in. Beyond that, two problems: (1) Their win against MSU comes across as a bit flukey. (2) They received only 9 votes in last week's poll, so they were not really on anyone's radar. I expect they'll move way up among the "Others" receiving votes tomorrow.

I’d honestly keep SDSU at #3. Their only losses are a 7 point loss to unbeaten and ranked #17 FBS Minnesota and a 7 point loss to unbeaten and ranked #1 NDSU.

Realize Weber has lost to two FBS teams, but Minnesota is better than San Diego State and NDSU is better than Nevada.
 
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
Nice work, Ida. I’m with you on MSU’s drop, but I don’t see them going any lower than 17. The pollsters have really been generous to the Bobcats this year with a lot of lackluster play. It’ll be interesting to see how many more first place votes JMU gets in the eGriz Poll after the Bizons’s narrow escape. JMU has been getting more love each week. Good stuff, thx!

JMU was taken to OT a few weeks ago by Stony Brook. They have beat one top 10 team all year. They have a loss.

How in the hell do you rank them ahead of an unbeaten NDSU team, who has played the toughest schedule in the FCS and has 4 wins over top 10 ranked teams?

JMU’s loss was by 7 to a P5 school on the road. I personally think JMU is a better team than the Bizons, and their experience will pay off down the stretch. I’m not alone, obviously, given the polls. If we’re being completely honest on who we really think the beat teams are, I’m not sure I’d even put the Bisons at #2.
 
CDAGRIZ said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
Nice work, Ida. I’m with you on MSU’s drop, but I don’t see them going any lower than 17. The pollsters have really been generous to the Bobcats this year with a lot of lackluster play. It’ll be interesting to see how many more first place votes JMU gets in the eGriz Poll after the Bizons’s narrow escape. JMU has been getting more love each week. Good stuff, thx!

JMU was taken to OT a few weeks ago by Stony Brook. They have beat one top 10 team all year. They have a loss.

How in the hell do you rank them ahead of an unbeaten NDSU team, who has played the toughest schedule in the FCS and has 4 wins over top 10 ranked teams?

JMU’s loss was by 7 to a P5 school on the road. I personally think JMU is a better team than the Bizons, and their experience will pay off down the stretch. I’m not alone, obviously, given the polls. If we’re being completely honest on who we really think the beat teams are, I’m not sure I’d even put the Bisons at #2.

They have not beaten anyone good other than Villanova and after this week, I don’t know if you can say that was that great of a win.

We will see what happens in the playoffs, but until NDSU loses, they are deserving of the number one ranking.
 
AZGrizFan said:
How is Sac State NOT above Kennesaw St?
Would like to see that happen ... it's surely deserved. But too many pollsters seem to go mostly by the W-L records and who won this weekend. Since both K-State and Sac State won handily, most pollsters will just keep them in the order they already had.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
AZGrizFan said:
How is Sac State NOT above Kennesaw St?
Would like to see that happen ... it's surely deserved. But too many pollsters seem to go mostly by the W-L records and who won this weekend. Since both K-State and Sac State won handily, most pollsters will just keep them in the order they already had.

Seriously, how hard is it to just dig ONE level deeper and look at SOS and who they’ve played/beat? Polls are seriously meaningless when this little effort is put into them by those given the responsibility.
 
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
Nice work, Ida. I’m with you on MSU’s drop, but I don’t see them going any lower than 17. The pollsters have really been generous to the Bobcats this year with a lot of lackluster play. It’ll be interesting to see how many more first place votes JMU gets in the eGriz Poll after the Bizons’s narrow escape. JMU has been getting more love each week. Good stuff, thx!

JMU was taken to OT a few weeks ago by Stony Brook. They have beat one top 10 team all year. They have a loss.

How in the hell do you rank them ahead of an unbeaten NDSU team, who has played the toughest schedule in the FCS and has 4 wins over top 10 ranked teams?

JMU’s loss was by 7 to a P5 school on the road. I personally think JMU is a better team than the Bizons, and their experience will pay off down the stretch. I’m not alone, obviously, given the polls. If we’re being completely honest on who we really think the beat teams are, I’m not sure I’d even put the Bisons at #2.

They have not beaten anyone good other than Villanova and after this week, I don’t know if you can say that was that great of a win.

We will see what happens in the playoffs, but until NDSU loses, they are deserving of the number one ranking.

I don’t agree. They haven’t impressed me with their narrow wins. It might be surprising to learn that not everyone is as enamored with the Bisons as Bisons fans are. Actually, maybe I’m wrong, and that’s the reason their fans come off like dullard missionaries.
 
AZGrizFan said:
IdaGriz01 said:
AZGrizFan said:
How is Sac State NOT above Kennesaw St?
Would like to see that happen ... it's surely deserved. But too many pollsters seem to go mostly by the W-L records and who won this weekend. Since both K-State and Sac State won handily, most pollsters will just keep them in the order they already had.
Seriously, how hard is it to just dig ONE level deeper and look at SOS and who they’ve played/beat? Polls are seriously meaningless when this little effort is put into them by those given the responsibility.
I tend to pick on the pollsters a lot, as I'm sure you have seen. But it's not that all pollsters take the easy way out ... it's just that many seem to do so. (Or my "rules of thumb" wouldn't work.) I have no firm idea, but a glance at the list of pollster names suggests to me that the poll voting is very much a side distraction for a lot of them.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
With eight ranked teams losing, there is bound to be another big shakeup in the rankings. However, half of those loses were to other ranked teams, so it shouldn’t be quite the blood bath it might have been.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (8-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [2]
#3 Weber State (6-2) [4]
#4 South Dakota State (6-2) [3]
#5 Kennesaw State (7-1) [6]
#6 Sacramento State (6-2) [7]
#7 Illinois State (6-2) [8]
#8 Montana (6-2) [10]
#9 Northern Iowa (5-3) [11]
#10 Villanova (6-2) [5]
#11 Central Arkansas (6-2) [12]
#12 Princeton (6-0) [13]
#13 Furman (5-3) [14]
#14 Dartmouth (6-0) [17]
#15 North Carolina A&T (5-2) [18]
#16 Florida A&M (7-1) [20]
#17 Montana State (5-3) [9]
#18 Central Connecticut (7-1) [23]
#19 SEMo State (5-3) [24]
#20 Towson (4-4) [16]
#21 Jacksonville State (6-3) [25]
#22 Stony Brook (5-3) NR
#23 Nicholls (4-4) [15]
#24 Wofford (5-2) NR
#25 SHSU (5-4) [21]

NR Delaware (4-4) [19]
NR UC Davis (4-5) [22]

The first thing you might notice is that #3 SDSU only slipped a spot, when two or three is more normal. That’s not just because they played NDSU pretty tough (which they did). Dropping them two or three would have put the Jacks’ below Kennesaw State and I thought … “No way.” I think the pollsters will see it that way too.

#5 Villanova, on the other hand, lost a home game to an unranked Stony Brook team. Still, because Stony is actually a pretty good team, I only dropped ‘Nova by five. I could easily see them dropping another spot or two. On the flip side, I invoked my new mid-season rule and jumped Stony Brook into the top-25.

You will note that I expect the pollsters to crush #9 MSU after their lost to unranked North Dakota, even though the kitties still have a winning record. But that is also two losses in a row for MSU, so it would not shock me to seem them go even lower.

#15 Nicholls also lost to an unranked opponent and it was also their second loss in a row. I slammed them pretty good and it would not surprise me to see the pollsters hit them even harder.

#16 Towson lost to a high-ranked team, so they might not drop quite as much as I’m guessing. On the other hand, the pollsters could be much harsher on the Tigers … they are now just 1-3 in the CAA.

Next in line came #19 Delaware. They lost a home game to unranked, and not very good, Richmond. Richmond did not receive any votes in last week’s poll, so I think Delaware drops out of the top-25.

#21 Sam Houston State lost on the road by just 4 points to a pretty good #12 Central Arkansas (6-2) team. I’m guessing they will barely hang onto a spot in the top-25.

The same cannot be said for #22 UC-Davis. As we’ve seen most times before, teams ranked in the bottom three or so simply cannot afford to lose a game, even if it is to a highly ranked opponent. I replaced them with Wofford, the second highest “Other” vote-getter in last week’s poll. (The top Other vote-getter, UT-Martin, lost.)

Poor Delaware. Must sting even more since they hired Richmond’s coach and can’t manage to beat them. On their home field, no less
 
CDAGRIZ said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
JMU was taken to OT a few weeks ago by Stony Brook. They have beat one top 10 team all year. They have a loss.

How in the hell do you rank them ahead of an unbeaten NDSU team, who has played the toughest schedule in the FCS and has 4 wins over top 10 ranked teams?

JMU’s loss was by 7 to a P5 school on the road. I personally think JMU is a better team than the Bizons, and their experience will pay off down the stretch. I’m not alone, obviously, given the polls. If we’re being completely honest on who we really think the beat teams are, I’m not sure I’d even put the Bisons at #2.

They have not beaten anyone good other than Villanova and after this week, I don’t know if you can say that was that great of a win.

We will see what happens in the playoffs, but until NDSU loses, they are deserving of the number one ranking.

I don’t agree. They haven’t impressed me with their narrow wins. It might be surprising to learn that not everyone is as enamored with the Bisons as Bisons fans are. Actually, maybe I’m wrong, and that’s the reason their fans come off like dullard missionaries.

LMFAO....closest win was a 7 point victory on the road against the number 3 team in the FCS. Before that, their average margin of victory was 29 points including a 34 point on the road against Illinois State and a 32 point win against UNI.

Would love to have JMU’s cupcake schedule.
 
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
2011BisonAlumni said:
CDAGRIZ said:
JMU’s loss was by 7 to a P5 school on the road. I personally think JMU is a better team than the Bizons, and their experience will pay off down the stretch. I’m not alone, obviously, given the polls. If we’re being completely honest on who we really think the beat teams are, I’m not sure I’d even put the Bisons at #2.

They have not beaten anyone good other than Villanova and after this week, I don’t know if you can say that was that great of a win.

We will see what happens in the playoffs, but until NDSU loses, they are deserving of the number one ranking.

I don’t agree. They haven’t impressed me with their narrow wins. It might be surprising to learn that not everyone is as enamored with the Bisons as Bisons fans are. Actually, maybe I’m wrong, and that’s the reason their fans come off like dullard missionaries.

LMFAO....closest win was a 7 point victory on the road against the number 3 team in the FCS. Before that, their average margin of victory was 29 points including a 34 point on the road against Illinois State and a 32 point win against UNI.

Would love to have JMU’s cupcake schedule.

Hope you enjoyed your Sunday on eGriz.com, Butters!
 
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