IdaGriz01
Well-known member
This Saturday we had four “upsets” in the sense that a ranked team lost to an unranked team. Three other ranked teams lost, of course, but all to a higher-ranked team (so “form held”). But with a total of seven losses, scattered across the list, there’s bound to be a lot of stirring around in the rankings. Yet with all that, my formulas predict that only one team will drop out of the top-25 (but that’s shaky).
1 James Madison (6-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (6-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
4 South Dakota (6-0) [4]
5 Wofford (6-0) [5]
6 Central Arkansas (5-1) [6]
7 Sam Houston State (5-1) [9]
8 Eastern Washington (5-2) [10]
9 Richmond (4-2) [13]
10 Western Illinois (5-1) [14]
11 Youngstown State (3-3) [8]
12 North Carolina A&T (7-0)
13 South Dakota State (4-2)
14 Elon (5-1) [16]
15 Samford (4-2) [19]
16 Villanova (4-3) [11]
17 Grambling State (5-1) [20]
18 New Hampshire (4-2) [12]
19 Western Carolina (5-2) [21]
20 McNeese (5-1) [22]
21 Montana (5-2) [24]
22 North Carolina Central (5-1) [25]
23 Stony Brook (5-2) NR
24 Weber State (4-2) [18]
25 Illinois State (4-2) [17]
The one team I see dropping out is The Citadel, which did lose to a highly-ranked team (#5 Wofford). But they were only #23 going in … so they are surely gone. To replace them, I went with Stony Brook, which handily beat #12 New Hampshire. Of course, Northern Iowa clobbered #7 SDSU, but even after the win, UNI’s overall record is just 3-3 … so I don’t see them moving into the top-25.
The shaky parts here are the retention of Weber State and Illinois State in the top-25 (barely). My usual formula drops Weber by six spots (or I could have gone seven). However, the pollsters have not been kind to the Big Sky and it would not surprise me at all if they dropped out. If that happens, I would hope they’d give a nod to Northern Arizona (4-2). The Jacks won by a lot, but PSU is so bad (0-6 now) that the pollsters might not be too impressed.
The drop for Illinois State was eight spots … again “normal” after a bad loss. But this was also their second bad loss in a row, so they too may be gone from the top-25. If that happens, we could see undefeated Dartmouth (5-0) moved into the top-25 … they were only 15 votes out in last week’s poll.
For those who think the Griz could move up to #20 … maybe, but not a given. McNeese had a bye and only the one loss. So I do not really see the pollsters jumping UM over the Cowboys.
1 James Madison (6-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (6-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
4 South Dakota (6-0) [4]
5 Wofford (6-0) [5]
6 Central Arkansas (5-1) [6]
7 Sam Houston State (5-1) [9]
8 Eastern Washington (5-2) [10]
9 Richmond (4-2) [13]
10 Western Illinois (5-1) [14]
11 Youngstown State (3-3) [8]
12 North Carolina A&T (7-0)
13 South Dakota State (4-2)
14 Elon (5-1) [16]
15 Samford (4-2) [19]
16 Villanova (4-3) [11]
17 Grambling State (5-1) [20]
18 New Hampshire (4-2) [12]
19 Western Carolina (5-2) [21]
20 McNeese (5-1) [22]
21 Montana (5-2) [24]
22 North Carolina Central (5-1) [25]
23 Stony Brook (5-2) NR
24 Weber State (4-2) [18]
25 Illinois State (4-2) [17]
The one team I see dropping out is The Citadel, which did lose to a highly-ranked team (#5 Wofford). But they were only #23 going in … so they are surely gone. To replace them, I went with Stony Brook, which handily beat #12 New Hampshire. Of course, Northern Iowa clobbered #7 SDSU, but even after the win, UNI’s overall record is just 3-3 … so I don’t see them moving into the top-25.
The shaky parts here are the retention of Weber State and Illinois State in the top-25 (barely). My usual formula drops Weber by six spots (or I could have gone seven). However, the pollsters have not been kind to the Big Sky and it would not surprise me at all if they dropped out. If that happens, I would hope they’d give a nod to Northern Arizona (4-2). The Jacks won by a lot, but PSU is so bad (0-6 now) that the pollsters might not be too impressed.
The drop for Illinois State was eight spots … again “normal” after a bad loss. But this was also their second bad loss in a row, so they too may be gone from the top-25. If that happens, we could see undefeated Dartmouth (5-0) moved into the top-25 … they were only 15 votes out in last week’s poll.
For those who think the Griz could move up to #20 … maybe, but not a given. McNeese had a bye and only the one loss. So I do not really see the pollsters jumping UM over the Cowboys.
