IdaGriz01
Well-known member
I considered not even doing a poll guess today, given the bloodbath among the ranked teams. After all, the Griz had plenty of company … with 8 ranked teams losing. But I decided to run through my “formulas” and the results were so interesting, I decided to post after all.
Poll Guess, School (Record), [Old Rank]
1 Jacksonville State (4-1) [1]
2 Coastal Carolina (6-0) [2]
3 North Dakota State (4-1) [3]
4 Illinois State (4-1) [4]
5 James Madison (6-0) [5]
6 Chattanooga (4-1) [6]
7 Eastern Washington (3-2) [7]
8 South Dakota State (4-1) [8]
9 Sam Houston State (3-2) [11]
10 Fordham (5-1) [13]
11 Richmond (4-1) [16]
12 Youngstown State (3-2) [9]
13 Eastern Kentucky (3-2) [17]
14 UNI (2-3) [10]
15 Montana State (3-2) [18]
16 New Hampshire (3-2) [21]
17 McNeese State (5-0) [22]
18 Portland State (4-1) [25]
19 Liberty (3-3) [15]
20 Montana (3-3) [12]
21 Villanova (2-3) [14]
22 Indiana State (3-2) [19]
23 Harvard (4-0) [24]
24 William & Mary (3-2) [NR]
25 SE Louisiana (3-2) [20]
NR North Dakota (4-2) [23]
As I said, the total number of losses by ranked teams made for a pretty hefty challenge in trying to guess what the pollsters might do. Granted, four of those losses were dictated by the fact that two ranked teams were matched up.
But there was more. The Griz loss to the Weebs was bad enough, of course. But who would have thought Liberty would lose to a 1-3 Gardner-Webb team whose only win this year was against D-II Virginia Union (and they only won by 13-9)? Many here on eGriz felt (feel) that North Dakota’s early-season schedule was soft and they didn’t deserve being ranked. Yet did anyone seriously think ISU could go in there and get the win? But actually, UND was my easiest decision: When you’re ranked #23 and you lose at home, you won’t be in the next top-25.
The other challenge was the fact that six of the losses came in sets of two. That meant I had to decide, based on who they lost to, etc., whether they’d move down together, or do something different. Made for quite a mess.
What to do with Portland State was another puzzle. North Texas is a truly awful FBS team, but Washington State has turned out to be not all that bad. As you can see, I jumped PSU a lot … which I really think the pollsters will do.
I hammered the Griz down by 8 spots, which is a lot, even when you lose to an unranked team. They might go down a couple more, but, on the flip side, it would not surprise me if UM ends up one or two spots higher than my guess.
Villanova has now lost two in a row, so I pushed them down by 7 spots. That could go either way … less of a drop because of possible CAA bias, or more because the pollsters think ‘Nova is done for the year.
The final challenge was to select a team to replace UND in the top 25. The only one of the top vote getters among the “Others” in the last poll that had an impressive win, against a ranked opponent, was William & Mary. So I went with them.
Should be very interesting when the actual poll comes out tomorrow.
Poll Guess, School (Record), [Old Rank]
1 Jacksonville State (4-1) [1]
2 Coastal Carolina (6-0) [2]
3 North Dakota State (4-1) [3]
4 Illinois State (4-1) [4]
5 James Madison (6-0) [5]
6 Chattanooga (4-1) [6]
7 Eastern Washington (3-2) [7]
8 South Dakota State (4-1) [8]
9 Sam Houston State (3-2) [11]
10 Fordham (5-1) [13]
11 Richmond (4-1) [16]
12 Youngstown State (3-2) [9]
13 Eastern Kentucky (3-2) [17]
14 UNI (2-3) [10]
15 Montana State (3-2) [18]
16 New Hampshire (3-2) [21]
17 McNeese State (5-0) [22]
18 Portland State (4-1) [25]
19 Liberty (3-3) [15]
20 Montana (3-3) [12]
21 Villanova (2-3) [14]
22 Indiana State (3-2) [19]
23 Harvard (4-0) [24]
24 William & Mary (3-2) [NR]
25 SE Louisiana (3-2) [20]
NR North Dakota (4-2) [23]
As I said, the total number of losses by ranked teams made for a pretty hefty challenge in trying to guess what the pollsters might do. Granted, four of those losses were dictated by the fact that two ranked teams were matched up.
But there was more. The Griz loss to the Weebs was bad enough, of course. But who would have thought Liberty would lose to a 1-3 Gardner-Webb team whose only win this year was against D-II Virginia Union (and they only won by 13-9)? Many here on eGriz felt (feel) that North Dakota’s early-season schedule was soft and they didn’t deserve being ranked. Yet did anyone seriously think ISU could go in there and get the win? But actually, UND was my easiest decision: When you’re ranked #23 and you lose at home, you won’t be in the next top-25.
The other challenge was the fact that six of the losses came in sets of two. That meant I had to decide, based on who they lost to, etc., whether they’d move down together, or do something different. Made for quite a mess.
What to do with Portland State was another puzzle. North Texas is a truly awful FBS team, but Washington State has turned out to be not all that bad. As you can see, I jumped PSU a lot … which I really think the pollsters will do.
I hammered the Griz down by 8 spots, which is a lot, even when you lose to an unranked team. They might go down a couple more, but, on the flip side, it would not surprise me if UM ends up one or two spots higher than my guess.
Villanova has now lost two in a row, so I pushed them down by 7 spots. That could go either way … less of a drop because of possible CAA bias, or more because the pollsters think ‘Nova is done for the year.
The final challenge was to select a team to replace UND in the top 25. The only one of the top vote getters among the “Others” in the last poll that had an impressive win, against a ranked opponent, was William & Mary. So I went with them.
Should be very interesting when the actual poll comes out tomorrow.
) But they’ve won handily against the better opponents and beat up on the ones they were supposed to, including a shutout of their one D-II opponent. As for Portland State: Who knows what the pollsters will do? I jumped them seven spots, which you hardly ever see … yet they certainly deserve it with two FBS wins on their resume. As I said, North Texas is really, really bad, but PSU crushed them way worse than any of their FBS opponents.
