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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 5)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Almost a third – eight – of the ranked teams lost, three to unranked opponents. We should again see quite a stirring of the pot in the next poll. The difficulty, of course, is that no one ahead of the Griz lost. So will they move up anyway, having beat a top-10 team? Good question.

Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 South Dakota State (9-0) [1]
#2 Furman (8-1) [2]
#3 Montana (8-1) [4]
#4 Idaho (7-2) [3]
#5 Montana State (7-2) [6]
#6 South Dakota (7-2) [9]
#7 NC Central (8-1) [12]
#8 North Dakota (6-3) [13]
#9 Sacramento State (6-3) [7]
#10 Southern Illinois (6-3) [10]
#11 Delaware (7-2) [5]
#12 Florida A&M (8-1) [15]
#13 Incarnate Word (7-2) [8]
#14 NDSU (6-3) [11]
#15 Western Carolina (6-3) [16]
#16 Chattanooga (7-3) [14]
#17 Villanova (7-2) [17]
#18 Northern Iowa (6-3) [18]
#19 Austin Peay (7-2) [19]
#20 UT Martin (7-2) [21]
#21 Youngstown State (6-3) [22]
#22 Albany (7-3) [23]
#23 Central Arkansas (6-3) NR
#24 Mercer (5-2) [25]
#25 Lafayette (7-2) [20]

NR William & Mary (5-4) [24]

The highest ranked-team loss was by Delaware, which lost to an unranked opponent. Elon is, however, tied for third in the CAA. I have guessed that the pollsters will drop the Blue Hens below two other teams that lost to ranked opponents. That could be way off base, and I could easily see them come in at #9, ahead of Southern Illinois and Sacramento State.

Although Sac State lost pretty decisively to the Griz, I think the pollsters will cut them some slack because they had to play at WaGriz. Be interesting to see how that actually plays out. On the flip side, I decided the pollsters might nudge UM up one because of that win, which gives the Griz an (8-1) record. That may be optimistic, since the pollsters do not often move a team up unless there’s a gap.

Incarnate Word lost, at home, to an unranked Nicholls team (4-4 on paper, but 5-4 with the forfeit by NW State). I expect the pollsters to drop them a lot … but that could just be my negative vibes toward this year’s version of Inc Word.

I do not expect Southern Illinois to drop very much after their lost to #9 South Dakota. Still, I could see them lose another spot (or two).

That brings us to North Dakota State. I dropped them only four spots because they lost on the road to #1. However, the “bloom” has clearly gone off that program and the pollsters could easily smack them down another couple spots.

Chattanooga lost a close one to the #2 team, so I do not expect the pollsters to drop them that much (maybe one more spot). And if you’re wondering, I think that win keeps the Paladins at #2. I chose to nudge the Griz up one because of the 8-1 record, but I do not see the pollsters moving them ahead of Furman.

Lafayete lost at home to an unranked opponent. I could see the pollsters drop them out of the top-25. However, the game did go into overtime, so I think they will hang on.

William & Mary lost on the road to slightly higher-ranked Albany. It’s not impossible that the pollsters would keep them in the top-25 … except for the fact that they got thumped and their current (5-4) record looks pretty ugly. I took the easy way out and moved the top “Other” vote-getter – Central Arkansas – in.
 
Idaho, I see what you’re saying about Furman not losing their game, and the pollsters leaving them at #2, but I can also see the pollsters looking at the Griz shellacking of a the #7 team in the country; and Furman’s three point win vs the #14 team. It’s gonna be really close either way.
 
rocklobster said:
Idaho, I see what you’re saying about Furman not losing their game, and the pollsters leaving them at #2, but I can also see the pollsters looking at the Griz shellacking of a the #7 team in the country; and Furman’s three point win vs the #14 team. It’s gonna be really close either way.
Would love to see the Griz move to #2. To be honest, I think they deserve it ... but that's probably the "homer" in me coming out.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
rocklobster said:
Idaho, I see what you’re saying about Furman not losing their game, and the pollsters leaving them at #2, but I can also see the pollsters looking at the Griz shellacking of a the #7 team in the country; and Furman’s three point win vs the #14 team. It’s gonna be really close either way.
Would love to see the Griz move to #2. To be honest, I think they deserve it ... but that's probably the "homer" in my coming out.

They do deserve it. Even Sam Herder says so.
 
EverettGriz said:
AZGrizFan said:
Has there ever been a less inspiring #2 team in the country?

Msu?

Furman did lose their starting QB in the second quarter, so there’s that. The eye test, however, is pretty obvious. Either way, two more games to win!
 
Da Boyz Mom said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Would love to see the Griz move to #2. To be honest, I think they deserve it ... but that's probably the "homer" in me coming out.
They do deserve it. Even Sam Herder says so.
For whatever that's worth. :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Da Boyz Mom said:
They do deserve it. Even Sam Herder says so.
For whatever that's worth. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Herder hates the Griz. If he says they deserve to be #2, he'll be eating more crow than the Egriz posters who gave up on them after the NAU loss.
 
It doesnt really matter for 2 weeks so please keep the GRIZ at #4 and show Bobby so we can get by this sandwhich game in Portland. 2 wins PLUS our stadium would no doubt get us the 2 seed
 
kevraid said:
It doesnt really matter for 2 weeks so please keep the GRIZ at #4 and show Bobby so we can get by this sandwhich game in Portland. 2 wins PLUS our stadium would no doubt get us the 2 seed

There’s quite a few voters that have us at two and there’s some that have us at 7-10 and even one in the teens. I can tell you which one I’d be showing this team if I were Hauck.
 
Wolf777 said:
kevraid said:
It doesnt really matter for 2 weeks so please keep the GRIZ at #4 and show Bobby so we can get by this sandwhich game in Portland. 2 wins PLUS our stadium would no doubt get us the 2 seed

There’s quite a few voters that have us at two and there’s some that have us at 7-10 and even one in the teens. I can tell you which one I’d be showing this team if I were Hauck.

Do you think he shows them polling? serious question
 
hilinegrizfan said:
Wolf777 said:
There’s quite a few voters that have us at two and there’s some that have us at 7-10 and even one in the teens. I can tell you which one I’d be showing this team if I were Hauck.

Do you think he shows them polling? serious question

Sammy has confirmed that Bobby posts bulletin board material in the locker room. Not sure about the polls though. I would imagine that the players are well aware of the poll even if Bobby doesn't say anything about it.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Almost a third – eight – of the ranked teams lost, three to unranked opponents. We should again see quite a stirring of the pot in the next poll. The difficulty, of course, is that no one ahead of the Griz lost. So will they move up anyway, having beat a top-10 team? Good question.

Poll Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
#1 South Dakota State (9-0) [1]
#2 Furman (8-1) [2]
#3 Montana (8-1) [4]
#4 Idaho (7-2) [3]
#5 Montana State (7-2) [6]
#6 South Dakota (7-2) [9]
#7 NC Central (8-1) [12]
#8 North Dakota (6-3) [13]
#9 Sacramento State (6-3) [7]
#10 Southern Illinois (6-3) [10]
#11 Delaware (7-2) [5]
#12 Florida A&M (8-1) [15]
#13 Incarnate Word (7-2) [8]
#14 NDSU (6-3) [11]
#15 Western Carolina (6-3) [16]
#16 Chattanooga (7-3) [14]
#17 Villanova (7-2) [17]
#18 Northern Iowa (6-3) [18]
#19 Austin Peay (7-2) [19]
#20 UT Martin (7-2) [21]
#21 Youngstown State (6-3) [22]
#22 Albany (7-3) [23]
#23 Central Arkansas (6-3) NR
#24 Mercer (5-2) [25]
#25 Lafayette (7-2) [20]

NR William & Mary (5-4) [24]

The highest ranked-team loss was by Delaware, which lost to an unranked opponent. Elon is, however, tied for third in the CAA. I have guessed that the pollsters will drop the Blue Hens below two other teams that lost to ranked opponents. That could be way off base, and I could easily see them come in at #9, ahead of Southern Illinois and Sacramento State.

Although Sac State lost pretty decisively to the Griz, I think the pollsters will cut them some slack because they had to play at WaGriz. Be interesting to see how that actually plays out. On the flip side, I decided the pollsters might nudge UM up one because of that win, which gives the Griz an (8-1) record. That may be optimistic, since the pollsters do not often move a team up unless there’s a gap.

Incarnate Word lost, at home, to an unranked Nicholls team (4-4 on paper, but 5-4 with the forfeit by NW State). I expect the pollsters to drop them a lot … but that could just be my negative vibes toward this year’s version of Inc Word.

I do not expect Southern Illinois to drop very much after their lost to #9 South Dakota. Still, I could see them lose another spot (or two).

That brings us to North Dakota State. I dropped them only four spots because they lost on the road to #1. However, the “bloom” has clearly gone off that program and the pollsters could easily smack them down another couple spots.

Chattanooga lost a close one to the #2 team, so I do not expect the pollsters to drop them that much (maybe one more spot). And if you’re wondering, I think that win keeps the Paladins at #2. I chose to nudge the Griz up one because of the 8-1 record, but I do not see the pollsters moving them ahead of Furman.

Lafayete lost at home to an unranked opponent. I could see the pollsters drop them out of the top-25. However, the game did go into overtime, so I think they will hang on.

William & Mary lost on the road to slightly higher-ranked Albany. It’s not impossible that the pollsters would keep them in the top-25 … except for the fact that they got thumped and their current (5-4) record looks pretty ugly. I took the easy way out and moved the top “Other” vote-getter – Central Arkansas – in.

Well sir, you once again hit it on the head. Great work as always.
 
Does the playoff committee update that ranking? Last one was the 26th of October I think.
 
AZDoc said:
Does the playoff committee update that ranking? Last one was the 26th of October I think.

Seems like that one is a one and done during the regular season and we won't know anything more until the playoff field is announced on November 19th.
 
Da Boyz Mom said:
AZDoc said:
Does the playoff committee update that ranking? Last one was the 26th of October I think.

Seems like that one is a one and done during the regular season and we won't know anything more until the playoff field is announced on November 19th.

Yeah, I couldn't remember if it was 1 time or 2 times they did it. Thank you!
 
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