FCS STATS Poll Guesses {Nov 4}

[IdaGriz01]

This might have been the craziest weekend in the FCS for years. To begin with, eight ranked teams lost, all but two to unranked opponents. To make life more difficult for a prognosticator, four of the top seven “Others” receiving votes also lost. But here goes anyway.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (9-0) [1]
#2 Kennesaw State (8-1) [2]
#3 Weber State (7-2) [4]
#4 EWU (7-2) [5]
#5 UC Davis (8-1) [6]
#6 SDSU (6-2) [7]
#7 Elon (6-2) [8]
#8 Jacksonville St (7-2) [10]
#9 JMU (6-3) [3]
#10 Colgate (8-0) [12]
#11 Delaware (7-2) [13]
#12 Stony Brook (6+3) [16]
#13 Wofford (6-3) [9]
#14 NC A&T (7-2) [17]
#15 Nicholls (6-3) [20]
#16 Princeton (8-0) [18]
#17 McNeese (6-3) [11]
#18 Towson (6-3) [15]
#19 ETSU (8-2) [22]
#20 Maine (6-3) [23]
#21 Illinois State (5-4) [14]
#22 SEMO (7-2) [25]
#23 Idaho State (6-3) [NR]
#24 No Iowa (5-4) [NR]
#25 Western Illinois (5-4) [NR]

#NR Central Arkansas (5-4) [19]
#NR Dartmouth (7-1) [24]
#NR SHSU (6-5) [21]

 

[IdaGriz01]

Commentary:

It’s hard to pick the biggest shocker among the upsets, but the loss by #3 James Madison has to be right up there. (That’s what happens when you have six turnovers.) My guess is that the pollsters will not be kind, even though it was a road loss. I still project that they will stay in the top-10, but I could be way off on that … they could drop further.

Wofford will surely drop, but since Samford has been ranked this year, I’m guessing not an extra amount. Conversely, I suspect McNeese could get creamed. I also think the other two ranked Southland teams will drop. The Southland is shaping up to be a one-bid conference (again).

The Missouri Valley is a total mystery to me (with the obvious exception of NDSU). As the saying goes … “They’re baack!” Northern Iowa has been a “fly in the ointment” all year. I fully expect that UNI will get back into the top-25. But where the Hell do you put Illinois State? They are now (5-4) overall and (2-4) and barely out of the MVFC cellar. I expect the pollsters will hammer them pretty bad.

The Colonial is also creating problems, with no one seeming to take a clear lead. Still, Towson’s loss to a ranked team should not hurt them a lot.

With at least two teams dropping out of the top-25, it made sense to finally give Idaho State a shot. Their (6-3) record – with two of those losses to (admittedly weak) FBS teams – they’ve deserve it for awhile, IMO.

With so many of the “Others’” losing, it was a toss-up whether or not to drop Central Arkansas and move up Western Illinois (the next best vote-getter that won a game). They both have (5-4) records, so I kinda figured W-Illinois will get the nod.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Addendum FYI: If my projection (guesses) hold up – and I've done really well in the past – we could see three teams with (5-4) records ranked in the top-25.