FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 3)

[IdaGriz01]

We’re faced with yet another week when seven ranked teams lost, although one was to a top FBS opponent. Of the other six, two lost to highly ranked opponents, but the other four lost to unranked teams.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (9-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [2]
#3 Weber State (7-2) [3]
#4 SDSU (7-2) [4]
#5 Montana (7-2) [8]
#6 Northern Iowa (6-3) [9]
#7 Central Arkansas [10]
#8 Princeton (7-0) a [12]
#9 Sacramento State (6-3) [6]
#10 Illinois State (6-3) [7]
#11 Furman (6-3) [13]
#12 Montana State (6-3) [14]
#13 Dartmouth (7-0) [15]
#14 Kennesaw State (7-2) [5]
#15 North Carolina A&T (6-2) [16]
#16 Florida A&M (8-1) [17]
#17 SE Missouri State (6-3) [18]
#18 Villanova (6-3) [11]
#19 Central Connecticut (8-1) [19]
#20 Monmouth (7-2) NR
#21 Towson (5-4) [21]
#22 UT Martin (6-3) NR
#23 Wofford (5-3) [23]
#24 North Dakota (5-3) [24]
#25 Nicholls (5-4) [25]

NR Stony Brook (5-4) [20]
NR Jacksonville State (6-4) [22]

Right off the bat, #5 Kennesaw State presented a problem. They got beat down at home by unranked Monmouth, so I’m thinking they should get hammered pretty hard in the rankings … maybe even more than my guess. However, as has been discussed here before, the pollsters sometimes hate to admit they’ve been wrong. So maybe K-State won’t drop all that much. (And if you’re not really paying attention, that 7-2 record still looks pretty impressive.)

Both #6 Sacramento State and #7 Illinois State lost to top-10 opponents. They shouldn’t drop a lot, but, because the margin was fairly decisive in both cases (17 and 19 points), I’ve nudged them down three spots.

Those losses allowed the Griz to move up three spots. However, the pollsters could decide that UNI’s win was much more impressive … and move them ahead of the Griz. Given past history, I don’t think that would surprise any of us.

#11 Villanova also lost to an unranked opponent, although not by a huge margin. Thus, I dropped them a fairly normal amount. However, they have now lost three games in a row, so an even bigger drop would not surprise me.

#20 Stony Brook and #22 Jacksonville State both lost to unranked opponents so I expect them to drop out of the top-25.

I don’t think #23 Wofford’s lost to Clemson (#4 in the FBS) will hurt them at all, so I left them were they started the weekend.

With two teams dropping out of the top-25, I had to decide who would fill those spots. You may recall that I recently started using a new mid- to late-season rule when a ranked team gets knocked off by an unranked opponent: The unranked team often jumps into the top-25.

So I am invoking that notion in two cases, starting with Monmouth. With their won-loss record plus their beat-down of K-State, I figured the voters would move them in at least at #20 … and would not be surprised by something higher. The second case is UT-Martin, which beat Jacksonville State (although not by a lot). I decided UT-Martin would “trade places” with J-State at #22.

 

[HookedonGriz]

I’d have an issue w Griz in front of Sac St. they beat us pretty thoroughly and were clearly a better team (on their turf and with Thompson). They have only lost to #3 Weber so if they bump down at all I would think maybe 1 spot. Didn’t SDSU only lose one spot after losing to NDSU?

 

[rocklobster]

We’re faced with yet another week when seven ranked teams lost, although one was to a top FBS opponent. Of the other six, two lost to highly ranked opponents, but the other four lost to unranked teams.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (9-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (8-1) [2]
#3 Weber State (7-2) [3]
#4 SDSU (7-2) [4]
#5 Montana (7-2) [8]
#6 Northern Iowa (6-3) [9]
#7 Central Arkansas [10]
#8 Princeton (7-0) a [12]
#9 Sacramento State (6-3) [6]
#10 Illinois State (6-3) [7]
#11 Furman (6-3) [13]
#12 Montana State (6-3) [14]
#13 Dartmouth (7-0) [15]
#14 Kennesaw State (7-2) [5]
#15 North Carolina A&T (6-2) [16]
#16 Florida A&M (8-1) [17]
#17 SE Missouri State (6-3) [18]
#18 Villanova (6-3) [11]
#19 Central Connecticut (8-1) [19]
#20 Monmouth (7-2) NR
#21 Towson (5-4) [21]
#22 UT Martin (6-3) NR
#23 Wofford (5-3) [23]
#24 North Dakota (5-3) [24]
#25 Nicholls (5-4) [25]

NR Stony Brook (5-4) [20]
NR Jacksonville State (6-4) [22]

Right off the bat, #5 Kennesaw State presented a problem. They got beat down at home by unranked Monmouth, so I’m thinking they should get hammered pretty hard in the rankings … maybe even more than my guess. However, as has been discussed here before, the pollsters sometimes hate to admit they’ve been wrong. So maybe K-State won’t drop all that much. (And if you’re not really paying attention, that 7-2 record still looks pretty impressive.)

Both #6 Sacramento State and #7 Illinois State lost to top-10 opponents. They shouldn’t drop a lot, but, because the margin was fairly decisive in both cases (17 and 19 points), I’ve nudged them down three spots.

Those losses allowed the Griz to move up three spots. However, the pollsters could decide that UNI’s win was much more impressive … and move them ahead of the Griz. Given past history, I don’t think that would surprise any of us.

#11 Villanova also lost to an unranked opponent, although not by a huge margin. Thus, I dropped them a fairly normal amount. However, they have now lost three games in a row, so an even bigger drop would not surprise me.

#20 Stony Brook and #22 Jacksonville State both lost to unranked opponents so I expect them to drop out of the top-25.

I don’t think #23 Wofford’s lost to Clemson (#4 in the FBS) will hurt them at all, so I left them were they started the weekend.

With two teams dropping out of the top-25, I had to decide who would fill those spots. You may recall that I recently started using a new mid- to late-season rule when a ranked team gets knocked off by an unranked opponent: The unranked team often jumps into the top-25.

So I am invoking that notion in two cases, starting with Monmouth. With their won-loss record plus their beat-down of K-State, I figured the voters would move them in at least at #20 … and would not be surprised by something higher. The second case is UT-Martin, which beat Jacksonville State (although not by a lot). I decided UT-Martin would “trade places” with J-State at #22.

I think your poll is right on. My only question this week was Kennesaw.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I’d have an issue w Griz in front of Sac St. they beat us pretty thoroughly and were clearly a better team (on their turf and with Thompson). They have only lost to #3 Weber so if they bump down at all I would think maybe 1 spot. Didn’t SDSU only lose one spot after losing to NDSU?

True fact on SDSU. However, that was a much closer game ... SDSU had the lead at half time and the score was tied midway through the 4th quarter. Sac State never led and the game was pretty much over at the half, with Thompson gone. Also, the pollsters do seem to pay attention to the impact of injuries, and the loss of their starting QB makes Sac State a weaker team. I did not include that in my guess, but actually a bigger drop for Sac would not be a huge surprise to me.

 

[IdaGriz01]

... I think your poll is right on. My only question this week was Kennesaw.

K-State was, and is, my big question also. I've guessed they will take a big drop, but the pollsters have "coddled" the Owls ever since they made them a top-10 team in the pre-season poll. That's why I suggested that a smaller drop would not be a big surprise. It's too bad the DirecTV feed for that game went to crap, or more people might have seen how Monmouth man-handled K-State. And the Hawks basically took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter or the beat-down score would have been worse.

 

[rocklobster]

... I think your poll is right on. My only question this week was Kennesaw.

K-State was, and is, my big question also. I've guessed they will take a big drop, but the pollsters have "coddled" the Owls ever since they made them a top-10 team in the pre-season poll. That's why I suggested that a smaller drop would not be a big surprise. It's too bad the DirecTV feed for that game went to crap, or more people might have seen how Monmouth man-handled K-State. And the Hawks basically took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter or the beat-down score would have been worse.

I watched that game on Hulu, and that Monmouth team made them look awful! Nagar just picked them apart, and Monmouth’s defense looked all world! Kennesaw is a run first, second , and third team. Very predictable and one dimensional! The pollsters love them and UNI! UNI is better, but over rated! I’m interested to see Monmouth and Northern Alabama this weekend! I think UNA can beat Monmouth!

 

[grizindabox]

UNI did jump to 5.

 

[IdaGriz01]

This might be one of my best set of guesses, ever. I hit twelve on the nose, nine within ±1, and three within ±2. That’s all but one I hit close. But my one big miss … I should have known better.

One of the missed-by-one was, of course, the Griz at #6 instead of #5 … but at least I said that was a strong possibility. Another off-by-one was Kennesaw State: I said they’d drop to #14 and the pollsters pushed them down one more spot. On the other side, I was perfectly happy to be one spot low on Monmouth

My one big miss was to move UT-Martin into the top-25, after they “upset” #22 Jacksonville State. That was my new rule about unranked teams knocking off ranked teams. I did have another choice: unranked New Hampshire winning over #11 Villanova. I went with UT-Martin because they had one more win (6-3) versus New Hampshire (5-3). Dumb move: (1) UNH knocked off the higher ranked opponent. And (2), The game involved the CAA. Live and learn.