IdaGriz01
Well-known member
All told, six ranked teams lost yesterday, but four were “built in” because they were ranked-vs-ranked matchups. The “unexpected” upsets were UC Davis over #15 Idaho, and Yale over #24 Princeton. Of course, many on here actually expected that UC Davis would win, but it will be interesting to see what the pollsters make of that. The loss by Princeton will drop them out of the top-25. (A good thing, IMO. Since the Ivy thumbs its nose at the FCS, they don’t belong in an FCS poll anyway.)
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (10-1) [1]
#2 Sac State (10-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (9-1) [3]
#4 NDSU (8-2) [4]
#5 Holy Cross (10-0) [5]
#6 Incarnate Word (9-1) [6]
#7 Weber State (8-2) [7]
#8 William & Mary (9-1) [8]
#9 Jackson State (10-0) [9]
#10 Samford (9-1) [10]
#11 Richmond (8-2) [12]
#12 Furman (8-2) [13]
#13 Montana (7-3) [16]
#14 Chattanooga (7-3) [11]
#15 Elon (8-3) [18]
#16 North Dakota (7-3) [19]
#17 Mercer (7-3) [14]
#18 SE Missouri State (8-2) [20]
#19 UNH (7-3) [21]
#20 Delaware (7-3) [17]
#21 UC Davis (6-4) NR
#22 Idaho (6-4) [15]
#23 Fordham (8-2) [23]
#24 SE Louisiana (7-3) [25]
#25 UT Martin (6-4) NR
Rhode Island (6-4) [22]
Princeton (8-1) [24]
Predicting the results of the Chattanooga loss worries me a bit, even though their opponent is ranked. Although the Mocs didn’t get blown out, the game was decisively in Samford’s favor pretty much all the way. Despite some big wins against cupcake opponents (as they should), Chattanooga just has not impressed all that much. I dropped them the usual amount for a loss to a ranked opponent, but it would not surprise me if the pollsters knocked them down a few more spots.
Mercer also lost to a ranked opponent, but that game was competitive all the way. Thus, I think the “standard” three-spot drop should be about right.
The next loss was by Idaho, but I’ll hold that for a moment, and go with Delaware. They lost a somewhat odd home game to #12 Richmond. Strange: The Blue Hens were held scoreless through the first three quarters, but Richmond only managed one field goal in each of those quarters. So the score was 9-0 going into the 4th quarter, which Delaware “won” 13-12. Again, I moved Delaware down three spots, but it would not startle me if the pollsters hammered them down some more after such a lackluster performance.
Rhode Island also lost to a ranked opponent, in a close game. They actually led at the half, having pitched a shutout at New Hampshire (score 14-0). But then they lost the second half … to lose 31-28. That result gave them a (6-4) record. One of their losses was to FBS Pittsburgh and the others to quality opponents. But some of their wins were pretty lame … seven overtimes to squeeze out a win against sad Monmouth (4-6) does not impress. Thus, I think the pollsters will drop them out of the top-25.
Finally, as noted above, Princeton lost to unranked Yale. That will take them out of the top-25.
Those dropouts opened up two spots. The top “Other” vote-getter in last week’s poll (Eastern Kentucky) lost, with winning UT Martin next. The Skyhawks have been in and out of the top-25, mainly because two of their four losses were to FBS opponents (one of those being Tennessee). I feel sure they’ll be ranked, and may move in higher than I’m guessing.
Finally, we come to the Idaho loss to (unranked) UC Davis. The Aggies have not been ranked this year, although they recently started to get votes. Two of their four losses were to FBS California and #1 FCS South Dakota State (by two points at SDSU). As a result, I’m going out on a limb here. I’m guessing that the pollsters will drop Idaho a more-or-less “standard” amount and that they’ll insert UC Davis just above them. This is a bit of a WAG, but it is something that the pollsters have done this year. And, just as a reminder, two of Idaho’s four losses were to FBS opponents (Washington State and Indiana).
As a result of all this, I believe the Griz will slide up to #13. I see no way, despite the impressive game score, that UM could jump Richmond and Furman (both of whom are 8-2).
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (10-1) [1]
#2 Sac State (10-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (9-1) [3]
#4 NDSU (8-2) [4]
#5 Holy Cross (10-0) [5]
#6 Incarnate Word (9-1) [6]
#7 Weber State (8-2) [7]
#8 William & Mary (9-1) [8]
#9 Jackson State (10-0) [9]
#10 Samford (9-1) [10]
#11 Richmond (8-2) [12]
#12 Furman (8-2) [13]
#13 Montana (7-3) [16]
#14 Chattanooga (7-3) [11]
#15 Elon (8-3) [18]
#16 North Dakota (7-3) [19]
#17 Mercer (7-3) [14]
#18 SE Missouri State (8-2) [20]
#19 UNH (7-3) [21]
#20 Delaware (7-3) [17]
#21 UC Davis (6-4) NR
#22 Idaho (6-4) [15]
#23 Fordham (8-2) [23]
#24 SE Louisiana (7-3) [25]
#25 UT Martin (6-4) NR
Rhode Island (6-4) [22]
Princeton (8-1) [24]
Predicting the results of the Chattanooga loss worries me a bit, even though their opponent is ranked. Although the Mocs didn’t get blown out, the game was decisively in Samford’s favor pretty much all the way. Despite some big wins against cupcake opponents (as they should), Chattanooga just has not impressed all that much. I dropped them the usual amount for a loss to a ranked opponent, but it would not surprise me if the pollsters knocked them down a few more spots.
Mercer also lost to a ranked opponent, but that game was competitive all the way. Thus, I think the “standard” three-spot drop should be about right.
The next loss was by Idaho, but I’ll hold that for a moment, and go with Delaware. They lost a somewhat odd home game to #12 Richmond. Strange: The Blue Hens were held scoreless through the first three quarters, but Richmond only managed one field goal in each of those quarters. So the score was 9-0 going into the 4th quarter, which Delaware “won” 13-12. Again, I moved Delaware down three spots, but it would not startle me if the pollsters hammered them down some more after such a lackluster performance.
Rhode Island also lost to a ranked opponent, in a close game. They actually led at the half, having pitched a shutout at New Hampshire (score 14-0). But then they lost the second half … to lose 31-28. That result gave them a (6-4) record. One of their losses was to FBS Pittsburgh and the others to quality opponents. But some of their wins were pretty lame … seven overtimes to squeeze out a win against sad Monmouth (4-6) does not impress. Thus, I think the pollsters will drop them out of the top-25.
Finally, as noted above, Princeton lost to unranked Yale. That will take them out of the top-25.
Those dropouts opened up two spots. The top “Other” vote-getter in last week’s poll (Eastern Kentucky) lost, with winning UT Martin next. The Skyhawks have been in and out of the top-25, mainly because two of their four losses were to FBS opponents (one of those being Tennessee). I feel sure they’ll be ranked, and may move in higher than I’m guessing.
Finally, we come to the Idaho loss to (unranked) UC Davis. The Aggies have not been ranked this year, although they recently started to get votes. Two of their four losses were to FBS California and #1 FCS South Dakota State (by two points at SDSU). As a result, I’m going out on a limb here. I’m guessing that the pollsters will drop Idaho a more-or-less “standard” amount and that they’ll insert UC Davis just above them. This is a bit of a WAG, but it is something that the pollsters have done this year. And, just as a reminder, two of Idaho’s four losses were to FBS opponents (Washington State and Indiana).
As a result of all this, I believe the Griz will slide up to #13. I see no way, despite the impressive game score, that UM could jump Richmond and Furman (both of whom are 8-2).
