IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Six ranked teams lost, so there’s a lot to consider. Four of the losses were to other ranked teams, but three of those were by fairly big margins (19-34 points). Probably the most interesting factor is that four of the losses were teams in the Missouri Valley. Since SDSU has already clinched their auto-bid, these results really stir the pot as to who from the Valley might, or might not, get at-large bids. As for the Griz … more below.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (10-0) [1]
#2 Furman (9-1) [2]
#3 Montana (9-1) [3]
#4 Montana State (8-2) [5]
#5 South Dakota (8-2) [6]
#6 Delaware (8-2) [8]
#7 Idaho (7-3) [4]
#8 Sacramento State (7-3) [9]
#9 NDSU (7-3) [12]
#10 Villanova (8-2) [13]
#11 Florida A&M (9-1) [13]
#12 North Dakota (6-4) [10]
#13 Incarnate Word (7-2) [16]
#14 Western Carolina (7-3) [17]
#15 NC Central (8-2) [7]
#16 Southern Illinois (6-4) [11]
#17 UAlbany (8-3) [18]
#18 Chattanooga (7-3) [19]
#19 Austin Peay (8-2) [20]
#20 UT Martin (8-2) [21]
#21 Mercer (8-3) [23]
#22 Northern Iowa (6-4) [15]
#23 Harvard (8-1) [24]
#24 Lafayette (8-2) [25]
#25 Richmond (7-3) NR
NR Youngstown State (6-4) [22]
My homer-ness tempted me to nudge the Griz up one spot into #2, over Furman, which also won handily over VMI. Sad to say, VMI is just a bad football program. They are having what passes for a good season, for them, sitting at (4-6). But last year, they won only one game. So Furman’s win at home against them is not particularly impressive. Of course, Portland State is no powerhouse either, although we must remember that two of their losses were against FBS opponents. Advantage: Griz. Also, Furman was just 19 points ahead of the Griz in last week’s poll. Advantage: Furman (?). However, Furman has already clinched the auto-bid from the SoCon. I think pollsters will see that as a plus (I don’t), and keep them at #2.
The burning question is obviously: How far will Idaho drop? Not very far, I’m guessing … for three reasons. First, the Spuds lost by just two points on the road. Second, Weber State was ranked for much of the season (even into the top-10) and continued to get votes until a few weeks ago. And finally, Idaho has an earlier win over Sacramento State. This year, the pollsters seem slightly more inclined to take that into account. Result: the Vandals slide in just ahead of Sac State.
Next in order was the loss by North Carolina Central. Personally, as I’ve said before, I don’t think NCC has any business being ranked higher than maybe #20, much less in the top-10. Sure, their record looks impressive (less so, knowing one win was against a sad 4-6 D-II opponent). But their SOS is abysmal (#232, Sagarin). Losing to (5-5) Howard by 30 points should put them in free-fall … but the pollsters probably won’t see it that way. As it stands now, NC Central will not be the MEAC representative in the Celebration Bowl against the SWAC. They and Howard should both win out, and now Howard has the tiebreaker. Could NCC get an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs? Would not surprise me.
I’m not projecting North Dakota to fall very far after their very close loss at South Dakota. In fact, it would not surprise me if the pollsters don’t drop them at all.
The same cannot be said for Southern Illinois which, IMO, has been skating on thin ice for a long time. They’ve been riding that upset win over a weak FBS opponent in their second game, but haven’t won against a decent opponent since. Actually, I may be understating how far the pollsters will drop them. Of course, their final game is against pitiful Indiana State (1-9), so they’ll most likely end up in the (7-4) bubble.
We now come to our perennial favorite: Northern Iowa. Losing by almost three TDs at unranked Missouri State should be a killer, since it leaves the Panthers at (6-4). I have guessed that the pollsters will go with the (somewhat) standard rule of six or seven spots down. Given the past bias we’ve seen in their favor, that may be too much. On the other hand, that puts them in among a group of teams with far better records. Might they sink more? I doubt it, but it will be interesting to find out.
I had to really dig to figure what to do with Youngstown State. It wasn’t just that they lost to the #1 team. Nope, they got clobbered (at home): just 47 yards rushing and only 207 yards total offense. (FWIW, the ‘Jacks gifted YSU with 12 penalties for 119 yards.) Also, a hard look at their record shows only one “quality” win. That was at home against Southern Illinois, which now looks a bit over-rated (see above). After all that, I’m guessing that the pollsters drop them out of the top-25.
That opened a spot, which I filled with Richmond. I considered going with the top vote-getter in the last poll, Central Arkansas. However, their home win (by a FG) over Eastern Kentucky was far less impressive than Richmond’s win over Elon.
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 SDSU (10-0) [1]
#2 Furman (9-1) [2]
#3 Montana (9-1) [3]
#4 Montana State (8-2) [5]
#5 South Dakota (8-2) [6]
#6 Delaware (8-2) [8]
#7 Idaho (7-3) [4]
#8 Sacramento State (7-3) [9]
#9 NDSU (7-3) [12]
#10 Villanova (8-2) [13]
#11 Florida A&M (9-1) [13]
#12 North Dakota (6-4) [10]
#13 Incarnate Word (7-2) [16]
#14 Western Carolina (7-3) [17]
#15 NC Central (8-2) [7]
#16 Southern Illinois (6-4) [11]
#17 UAlbany (8-3) [18]
#18 Chattanooga (7-3) [19]
#19 Austin Peay (8-2) [20]
#20 UT Martin (8-2) [21]
#21 Mercer (8-3) [23]
#22 Northern Iowa (6-4) [15]
#23 Harvard (8-1) [24]
#24 Lafayette (8-2) [25]
#25 Richmond (7-3) NR
NR Youngstown State (6-4) [22]
My homer-ness tempted me to nudge the Griz up one spot into #2, over Furman, which also won handily over VMI. Sad to say, VMI is just a bad football program. They are having what passes for a good season, for them, sitting at (4-6). But last year, they won only one game. So Furman’s win at home against them is not particularly impressive. Of course, Portland State is no powerhouse either, although we must remember that two of their losses were against FBS opponents. Advantage: Griz. Also, Furman was just 19 points ahead of the Griz in last week’s poll. Advantage: Furman (?). However, Furman has already clinched the auto-bid from the SoCon. I think pollsters will see that as a plus (I don’t), and keep them at #2.
The burning question is obviously: How far will Idaho drop? Not very far, I’m guessing … for three reasons. First, the Spuds lost by just two points on the road. Second, Weber State was ranked for much of the season (even into the top-10) and continued to get votes until a few weeks ago. And finally, Idaho has an earlier win over Sacramento State. This year, the pollsters seem slightly more inclined to take that into account. Result: the Vandals slide in just ahead of Sac State.
Next in order was the loss by North Carolina Central. Personally, as I’ve said before, I don’t think NCC has any business being ranked higher than maybe #20, much less in the top-10. Sure, their record looks impressive (less so, knowing one win was against a sad 4-6 D-II opponent). But their SOS is abysmal (#232, Sagarin). Losing to (5-5) Howard by 30 points should put them in free-fall … but the pollsters probably won’t see it that way. As it stands now, NC Central will not be the MEAC representative in the Celebration Bowl against the SWAC. They and Howard should both win out, and now Howard has the tiebreaker. Could NCC get an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs? Would not surprise me.
I’m not projecting North Dakota to fall very far after their very close loss at South Dakota. In fact, it would not surprise me if the pollsters don’t drop them at all.
The same cannot be said for Southern Illinois which, IMO, has been skating on thin ice for a long time. They’ve been riding that upset win over a weak FBS opponent in their second game, but haven’t won against a decent opponent since. Actually, I may be understating how far the pollsters will drop them. Of course, their final game is against pitiful Indiana State (1-9), so they’ll most likely end up in the (7-4) bubble.
We now come to our perennial favorite: Northern Iowa. Losing by almost three TDs at unranked Missouri State should be a killer, since it leaves the Panthers at (6-4). I have guessed that the pollsters will go with the (somewhat) standard rule of six or seven spots down. Given the past bias we’ve seen in their favor, that may be too much. On the other hand, that puts them in among a group of teams with far better records. Might they sink more? I doubt it, but it will be interesting to find out.
I had to really dig to figure what to do with Youngstown State. It wasn’t just that they lost to the #1 team. Nope, they got clobbered (at home): just 47 yards rushing and only 207 yards total offense. (FWIW, the ‘Jacks gifted YSU with 12 penalties for 119 yards.) Also, a hard look at their record shows only one “quality” win. That was at home against Southern Illinois, which now looks a bit over-rated (see above). After all that, I’m guessing that the pollsters drop them out of the top-25.
That opened a spot, which I filled with Richmond. I considered going with the top vote-getter in the last poll, Central Arkansas. However, their home win (by a FG) over Eastern Kentucky was far less impressive than Richmond’s win over Elon.
