IdaGriz01
Well-known member
I don’t usually produce one of these this early in the season. However, there has been a lot of interest in what might happen with the kitties, as well as some other results that could cause some big swings … so I decided to go ahead.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. North Dakota State (2-0) [1]
2. South Dakota State (2-0) [2]
3. Montana State (0-2)
4. Tarleton State (3-0) [5]
5. Montana (1-0) [6]
6. Illinois State (1-1) [7]
7. Rhode Island (2-0) [9]
8. Idaho (1-1) [10]
9. Lehigh (2-0) [11]
10. South Dakota (0-2) [4]
11. Incarnate Word (1-1) [12]
12. UC Davis (1-1) [8]
13. Villanova (1-0) [13]
14. Abilene Christian (1-1) [16]
15. Tennessee Tech (2-0) [17]
16. Northern Arizona (1-1) [19]
17. North Dakota (1-1) [20]
18. Monmouth (2-0) [21]
19. Southern Illinois (1-1) [14]
20. Jackson State (1-1) [15]
21. New Hampshire (2-0) [NR]
22. Sacramento State (0-2) [18]
23. Mercer (0-1) [23]
24. SE Missouri (1-1) [NR]
25. Harvard (0-0) [NR]
Nicholls (1-2) [22]
Southern Utah (1-1) [24]
Stephen F. Austin (0-2) [25]
The obvious place to start is with Montana State. That (0-2) record looks bad … but they lost to a higher-ranked on the road and in double OT. Also, we now know for sure that Oregon is a strong contender in the FBS rankings. With the South Dakota loss, I don’t see MSU dropping at all. Of course, the pollsters are weird, so it would not shock me if they nudged Tarleton State up to #3.
So what about South Dakota? They lost to an unranked team (no votes at all in the previous poll.) Granted, it was on the road and their other loss was a close one at Iowa State. If it weren’t for the rep of the MVFC, I’d drop them out of the top-10 … as it is, I think they will just hang on. (The loss by UC Davis will help them there, I think.)
As for UC-D, they could still hang on, but getting blasted so badly will almost certainly drop them out of the top-10.
The next ranked-team loss was Southern Illinois at Purdue. Normally, I would not expect a relatively close road loss to an FBS opponent to hurt them too much. However, some pollsters will recall that the Saluki’s only win was against a D-II team that is still transitioning from NAIA. I think they will take a major hit, perhaps even more than I’m guessing
Jackson State also lost on the road to an FBS opponent. Their one win was against a credible CAA team, so that may help them drop a bit less than otherwise.
Next, we get to Sac State, which lost to Nevada, 20-17, on a late pick-six. I’m guessing they will only drop 4-5 spots, particularly since their other loss was at South Dakota State. In fact, it would not surprise me if they don’t drop even that much.
Nicholls is in big trouble, after losing decisively at home to an unranked team. I very much doubt that they will stay in the top-25. Same goes for Southern Utah and Stephen F. Austin.
That, of course, leaves three spots to fill in the top-25. Trouble is, the top two “Others” lost and the next was Idle. I think New Hampshire is probably a lock to move in, as well as Southeast Missouri State. Then I have a quandary. The next winning Other is Richmond, which won a close road game at Wofford. Will they move in, or will the pollsters decide it’s time for the Ivy to show up, even though they haven’t played a game yet? As you can see, I’m betting on Harvard, just to be notional.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. North Dakota State (2-0) [1]
2. South Dakota State (2-0) [2]
3. Montana State (0-2)
4. Tarleton State (3-0) [5]
5. Montana (1-0) [6]
6. Illinois State (1-1) [7]
7. Rhode Island (2-0) [9]
8. Idaho (1-1) [10]
9. Lehigh (2-0) [11]
10. South Dakota (0-2) [4]
11. Incarnate Word (1-1) [12]
12. UC Davis (1-1) [8]
13. Villanova (1-0) [13]
14. Abilene Christian (1-1) [16]
15. Tennessee Tech (2-0) [17]
16. Northern Arizona (1-1) [19]
17. North Dakota (1-1) [20]
18. Monmouth (2-0) [21]
19. Southern Illinois (1-1) [14]
20. Jackson State (1-1) [15]
21. New Hampshire (2-0) [NR]
22. Sacramento State (0-2) [18]
23. Mercer (0-1) [23]
24. SE Missouri (1-1) [NR]
25. Harvard (0-0) [NR]
Nicholls (1-2) [22]
Southern Utah (1-1) [24]
Stephen F. Austin (0-2) [25]
The obvious place to start is with Montana State. That (0-2) record looks bad … but they lost to a higher-ranked on the road and in double OT. Also, we now know for sure that Oregon is a strong contender in the FBS rankings. With the South Dakota loss, I don’t see MSU dropping at all. Of course, the pollsters are weird, so it would not shock me if they nudged Tarleton State up to #3.
So what about South Dakota? They lost to an unranked team (no votes at all in the previous poll.) Granted, it was on the road and their other loss was a close one at Iowa State. If it weren’t for the rep of the MVFC, I’d drop them out of the top-10 … as it is, I think they will just hang on. (The loss by UC Davis will help them there, I think.)
As for UC-D, they could still hang on, but getting blasted so badly will almost certainly drop them out of the top-10.
The next ranked-team loss was Southern Illinois at Purdue. Normally, I would not expect a relatively close road loss to an FBS opponent to hurt them too much. However, some pollsters will recall that the Saluki’s only win was against a D-II team that is still transitioning from NAIA. I think they will take a major hit, perhaps even more than I’m guessing
Jackson State also lost on the road to an FBS opponent. Their one win was against a credible CAA team, so that may help them drop a bit less than otherwise.
Next, we get to Sac State, which lost to Nevada, 20-17, on a late pick-six. I’m guessing they will only drop 4-5 spots, particularly since their other loss was at South Dakota State. In fact, it would not surprise me if they don’t drop even that much.
Nicholls is in big trouble, after losing decisively at home to an unranked team. I very much doubt that they will stay in the top-25. Same goes for Southern Utah and Stephen F. Austin.
That, of course, leaves three spots to fill in the top-25. Trouble is, the top two “Others” lost and the next was Idle. I think New Hampshire is probably a lock to move in, as well as Southeast Missouri State. Then I have a quandary. The next winning Other is Richmond, which won a close road game at Wofford. Will they move in, or will the pollsters decide it’s time for the Ivy to show up, even though they haven’t played a game yet? As you can see, I’m betting on Harvard, just to be notional.
