IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With most teams now through a third of their regular season, the pollsters should be able to make some reasonable picks. If they choose to do so, of course … which is problematic. Still, as I mentioned on another thread, this list will heavily influence the rankings from here on out.
Just a reminder: As a general rule, a win does not mean a team will move up … unless a loss ahead of them opens a gap. Only if you do something spectacular will the pollsters jump you over a winner ahead of you. A major FBS upset might do it, although even that is not certain.
On the flip side, a loss will almost always result in a drop in the rankings. How far depends upon several factors: who they lost to. how badly, and perhaps home or away.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. South Dakota State (3-1) [1]
2. North Dakota State (3-1) [2]
3. Montana State (4-0) [3]
4. Idaho (3-1) [4]
5. South Dakota (2-1) [6]
6. Villanova (3-1) [5]
7. Central Arkansas (3-1) [8]
8. Montana (3-1) [9]
9. North Dakota (3-1) [10]
10. Southern Illinois (2-2) [7]
11. Sacramento State (2-2) [11]
12. William & Mary (3-1) [12]
13. UC Davis (3-1) [13]
14. Mercer (4-0) [14]
15. Incarnate Word (2-2) [15]
16 Tarleton State (3-1) [16]
17. Illinois State (3-1) [17]
18. SE Missouri (3-1) [21]
19. Lamar (3-1) [22]
20. Albany (1-2) [20]
21. Rhode Island (3-1) [NR]
22. Richmond (2-2) [NR]
23. Abilene Christian (2-2) [19]
24. Chattanooga (0-3) [23]
25. Northern Iowa (2-2) [25]
NR Lafayette (2-2) [18]
NR Western Carolina (1-3) [24]
There were enough losses among ranked teams to make it interesting, starting with Villanova. The Wildcats only made the score seem not so bad when Maryland let up on the gas in the second half. But Maryland, although not ranked, is a pretty good team (3-1), so I do not think the pollsters will punish Villanova too much. (There’s another reason, which I’ll get to later.)
The next change to consider is Southern Illinois losing at home to #21 SE Missouri. Because they lost to a ranked team, I only dropped them three spots. However, they lost decisively at home, so I can see the pollsters dinging them another spot or two.
Note that the SIU loss opens a spot for the Griz to move up. As noted above. I don’t think Villanova will drop enough to open another spot.
Now we cruise for awhile until we get to the loss by #18 Lafayette. They lost decisively to an unranked team (Columbia) … their one win was over pitiful Marist (0-3). I’m hoping, and projecting that the pollsters will correct their past error and drop Lafayette completely out of the Top-25. (But won’t be shocked if that doesn’t happen.)
Right below Lafayette is #19 Abilene Christian, which lost at home to #4 Idaho, Since they lost to a ranked team, they might not drop as far as my guess. However, their “signature” moment was hanging close with FBS Texas Tech in the first game of the season. They have no good wins … they barely beat Northern Colorado (2 points).
Finally, we get to Western Carolina. Yes, they played the Griz plenty tough, but when you’re #24, almost any loss will drop you out of the Top-25. Besides that, they are now (1-3), with their only win against a weak (1-3) team.
Before we fill the spots opened by the Lafayette and Western Carolina losses, let’s address the Northern Iowa loss at Hawaii. Although the Panther’s have no “signature” wins, their two losses were to FBS opponents, including ranked Nebraska. I’m guessing that the UNI magic will kick in and they’ll hang onto that #25 spot.
So, what two teams move up? As it happens, two of the top “Others” receiving votes lost and a third did not play. That takes us right down to Richmond and Rhode Island. Factor in a strong CAA endorsement in a Craig Haley column, and I’m betting the pollsters will slot both into the Top-25.
Be interesting to see how this all compares when the next real poll comes out. (I assume tomorrow morning.)
Just a reminder: As a general rule, a win does not mean a team will move up … unless a loss ahead of them opens a gap. Only if you do something spectacular will the pollsters jump you over a winner ahead of you. A major FBS upset might do it, although even that is not certain.
On the flip side, a loss will almost always result in a drop in the rankings. How far depends upon several factors: who they lost to. how badly, and perhaps home or away.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. South Dakota State (3-1) [1]
2. North Dakota State (3-1) [2]
3. Montana State (4-0) [3]
4. Idaho (3-1) [4]
5. South Dakota (2-1) [6]
6. Villanova (3-1) [5]
7. Central Arkansas (3-1) [8]
8. Montana (3-1) [9]
9. North Dakota (3-1) [10]
10. Southern Illinois (2-2) [7]
11. Sacramento State (2-2) [11]
12. William & Mary (3-1) [12]
13. UC Davis (3-1) [13]
14. Mercer (4-0) [14]
15. Incarnate Word (2-2) [15]
16 Tarleton State (3-1) [16]
17. Illinois State (3-1) [17]
18. SE Missouri (3-1) [21]
19. Lamar (3-1) [22]
20. Albany (1-2) [20]
21. Rhode Island (3-1) [NR]
22. Richmond (2-2) [NR]
23. Abilene Christian (2-2) [19]
24. Chattanooga (0-3) [23]
25. Northern Iowa (2-2) [25]
NR Lafayette (2-2) [18]
NR Western Carolina (1-3) [24]
There were enough losses among ranked teams to make it interesting, starting with Villanova. The Wildcats only made the score seem not so bad when Maryland let up on the gas in the second half. But Maryland, although not ranked, is a pretty good team (3-1), so I do not think the pollsters will punish Villanova too much. (There’s another reason, which I’ll get to later.)
The next change to consider is Southern Illinois losing at home to #21 SE Missouri. Because they lost to a ranked team, I only dropped them three spots. However, they lost decisively at home, so I can see the pollsters dinging them another spot or two.
Note that the SIU loss opens a spot for the Griz to move up. As noted above. I don’t think Villanova will drop enough to open another spot.
Now we cruise for awhile until we get to the loss by #18 Lafayette. They lost decisively to an unranked team (Columbia) … their one win was over pitiful Marist (0-3). I’m hoping, and projecting that the pollsters will correct their past error and drop Lafayette completely out of the Top-25. (But won’t be shocked if that doesn’t happen.)
Right below Lafayette is #19 Abilene Christian, which lost at home to #4 Idaho, Since they lost to a ranked team, they might not drop as far as my guess. However, their “signature” moment was hanging close with FBS Texas Tech in the first game of the season. They have no good wins … they barely beat Northern Colorado (2 points).
Finally, we get to Western Carolina. Yes, they played the Griz plenty tough, but when you’re #24, almost any loss will drop you out of the Top-25. Besides that, they are now (1-3), with their only win against a weak (1-3) team.
Before we fill the spots opened by the Lafayette and Western Carolina losses, let’s address the Northern Iowa loss at Hawaii. Although the Panther’s have no “signature” wins, their two losses were to FBS opponents, including ranked Nebraska. I’m guessing that the UNI magic will kick in and they’ll hang onto that #25 spot.
So, what two teams move up? As it happens, two of the top “Others” receiving votes lost and a third did not play. That takes us right down to Richmond and Rhode Island. Factor in a strong CAA endorsement in a Craig Haley column, and I’m betting the pollsters will slot both into the Top-25.
Be interesting to see how this all compares when the next real poll comes out. (I assume tomorrow morning.)
